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China's Confidence Game

China's Confidence Game

Nearly a year ago, we warned of what might happen if a crisis of confidence strikes China's economy. Recent economic numbers return this worry to the spotlight.

In 2018, China's economy grew at its slowest pace in nearly 30 years. In response, the country's central bank moved earlier this month to boost bank lending and then pumped a record $84 billion into the banking system.



Then we got a warning that excessive lending itself has become a problem with news that bad debt has reached its highest level in a generation. The International Monetary Fund warned recently that the biggest current threats to global economic growth are a "no-deal Brexit" and a sharp slowdown of China's economy. At the World Economic Forum in Davos last week, Kenneth Rogoff, a widely respected expert on debt crises, warned that China may be forced to rescue large parts of its financial and economic system.

China's economy has been cooling for several years, and there's no sign yet the country's leaders have lost confidence in their ability to manage. The government's latest moves signal concern, but not panic, about the current strength of the economy and its ability to weather the storm created by the trade war with Washington. A speech by President Xi Jinping last week at a special meeting of central and provincial-level leaders focused on other risks to China's future.

But China's leaders can't control how markets see their country and its economy. Particularly since, as I wrote last February, all of China's big political and economic decisions are made behind closed doors by seven men — the Politburo Standing Committee of China's Communist Party.

The day is coming when doubts about China's economic resilience will abruptly begin to grow, and it won't be easy for state officials, even if they're telling the absolute truth about what they believe, to calm markets. Today, there is confidence in the stats that China's government produces mainly because growth is believed to be relatively strong. That makes it easy for investors to ignore stories about Chinese provincial governments admitting they've faked their GDP data.

But here's the key question: During a Chinese market meltdown, when the government tries to ease fears with a release of reassuring numbers, will investors believe them?

Empathy and listening are key to establishing harmonious relationships, as demonstrated by Callista Azogu, GM of Human Resources & Organization for Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC), an Eni subsidiary in Abuja. "To build trust is very difficult. To destroy it is very easy," says Callista, whose busy days involve everything from personnel issues to union relationships. She sees great potential for her native Nigeria not only because of the country's natural resources, but because of its vibrant and creative people.

Learn more about Callista in this episode of Faces of Eni.

Saturday will mark the beginning of an historic turning point for European politics as 1,001 voting members of Germany's Christian Democratic Union, the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel, hold an online conference to elect a new leader.

Here are the basic facts:

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They call it Einstein. It's the multibillion-dollar digital defense system the US has used to catch outside hackers and attackers since 2003. But it was no match for what's looking like one of the biggest cyber breaches in US history. Ian Bremmer breaks it down.

Watch the GZERO World episode: Cyber attack: an act of espionage or war?

Since Martin Luther King Jr delivered his iconic "I have a dream" speech in August 1963, the number of Black Americans elected to the United States Congress has dramatically increased. Still, it wasn't until 2019, more than half a century later, that the share of Black members serving in the House of Representatives reflected the percentage of Black Americans in the broader population —12 percent. To date, only six states have sent a Black representative to serve in the US Senate (recent runoff elections will make Georgia the seventh state), and many states have never elected a Black representative to either house of Congress. Here's a look at Black representation in every US Congress since 1963.

More than 32 million COVID shots have now been administered globally, raising hopes that the light at the end of the tunnel is now in sight.

The US has vaccinated 3 percent of its total population, while the UK is nearing a solid 5 percent inoculation rate. In Israel, which has been hailed as a vaccine success story, almost 24 percent of people have already received at least one dose of a COVID vaccine.

But while many countries are able to glimpse the outlines of a post-COVID world, there is a huge population of people who are being left out entirely. Refugees, as well as displaced, undocumented, and stateless people around the world remain ineligible for inoculations and vulnerable to the coronavirus.

We take a look at three case studies where powerless populations are being left in the lurch.

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The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

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