How close is the United States to war with Iran?

Well who knew that the adult in the room on military action would turn out to be none other than President Trump. His advisers pushing him towards military confrontation. He doesn't want to do it. Still more likely than it has been. Certainly, the potential for escalation leading to accident and military confrontation is greater than we'd like.

What's the biggest thing to watch for at the G20 this week?

It's a big one. It's the big U.S. - China conversation about trade, about North Korea, about Huawei and 5G. It's U.S. and Russia. It's U.S. and Turkey. So many issues where the bilateral relations are more confrontational than they have been historically. And things could get dicey. Big one to watch.

Will Erdogan back down after his party lost the Istanbul mayor's race?

Oh I don't think Mr. Erdogan is going to back down. But he lost big. Almost a million votes which means he wasn't able to actually control the outcome. Doesn't mean he's not going to try to undermine the power of the mayor of Istanbul. But the big thing here is that a lot of people that used to support Erdogan, some of his major members of cabinet and the rest of them, are now going to start their own parties to challenge his AK Party. This is a tipping point in Erdogan's leadership for Turkey.