Rome wasn’t built in a day, and neither was the long-term ceasefire deal that the US and Iran tried to clinch this weekend. Despite 21 hours of talks between the two sides in the Pakistani capital of Islamabad, Vice President JD Vance had to deliver the “bad news,” capping what has been a rough week for US President Donald Trump’s second-in-command.
“We were quite accommodating. The president told us, ‘You need to come here in good faith and make your best effort to get a deal,’” Vance said. “We did that, and unfortunately, we weren’t able to make any headway.”
Trump is now seeking to retaliate for Iran’s refusal to agree to the American terms, pledging to implement his own blockade in the Strait of Hormuz, including ships that paid a toll to the Islamic Republic to pass through the waterway. The White House adjusted this on Monday, saying it would just halt ships from exiting and entering Iranian ports, in the hopes of stymying Tehran’s crude industry, a core part of its economy. Oil prices shot back up, with the benchmark Brent crude surpassing $100 per barrel again. The blockade reportedly began at 10 a.m. ET.
The failure to resolve this conflict, as well as the one between Israel and the Iran-backed Lebanese militant group Hezbollah, will exacerbate the humanitarian crisis in the Middle East and South Asia. Before the conflict even began, there were 24.3 million forcibly displaced persons in these regions, per the UN’s refugee agency, with Iran and Lebanon hosting large swaths of refugees from their war-torn neighbors. Since the US-Israeli war with Iran commenced on Feb. 28, another 1.05 million have become internally displaced in Lebanon, and Iran’s government estimated that between 600,000 and 1 million households have temporarily vacated their homes – figures that may not be precise.
There have been cross-border flows, too, with Iranians fleeing into Turkey, and Afghans who were living in Iran returning to their country of origin. More than 250,000 people have also fled Lebanon into Syria, most of whom are Syrian citizens.
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