Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn?

Promising "a new golden age," Boris Johnson, the United Kingdom's new prime minister, has only just taken his seat at 10 Downing Street, and already it looks possible that the UK is on a path toward early elections, a Labour Party-led government, and maybe even another Brexit referendum.

How might all that happen? To answer that questions, we must answer these questions…


What is Boris Johnson's Brexit strategy? The new PM hopes to succeed where now-former PM Theresa May failed—by persuading European negotiators to make him a new Brexit offer that can win a majority in the House of Commons.

To accomplish this, Johnson hopes to persuade Europe that he's much more serious than May about leaving the EU without an agreement on the future of the UK-EU relationship – a so-called "no deal" Brexit. At the same time, he wants to balance that credible threat with a charm offensive designed to get a favorable deal.

Is that strategy likely to work? Probably not. Johnson has the same problem that brought down Theresa May: his party is deeply divided on Brexit. Some members want to avoid a no-deal Brexit at all costs for fear it would inflict long-lasting damage on the UK's economy and international standing. Others insist the new government must honor its commitment to deliver Brexit for the majority who voted for it, by whatever means necessary.

For now, most within his party are content to give Johnson a chance. But it won't be long before he must choose which path to follow. When he does, he'll alienate large numbers of Tories on one side or the other.

European negotiators know all this. That's why there is little reason for them to offer the Brexit concessions that Johnson is hoping for.

Why are early national elections becoming more likely? There are two paths toward an early election, and both are credible. First, once he's confident that Conservative Party divisions give him the needed votes, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn could call for a vote of no-confidence in Johnson's government.

If the measure passes, Johnson would have 14 days to win back the confidence of parliament. If he fails, we could have a new PM from within the Conservative Party, but it's much more likely that national elections would be held.

The second path would entail Johnson calling early elections himself because he thinks the specter of a Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn can help him use a new vote to win a bigger majority, strengthening his bargaining power with Europe. Johnson appears to have ample confidence in his own political skills and might prefer the role of flamboyant campaigner to that of Brexit negotiator haggling with Brussels.

How would new elections shape up? Johnson might be forced into an alliance of convenience with Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party, while disgust with the Conservative Party's failure to sort out the Brexit mess might well send enough votes toward Labour to allow them to form a government that includes a voting agreement with Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists. (The Lib Dems said this week they won't support a Labour-led pact, but election results might change their minds.)

The bottom line: Jeremy Corbyn himself has never been an EU fan. But his party wants a revote, and he's had to agree to support one. That's why, if there are fresh elections and Corbyn becomes prime minister, a second Brexit referendum, with all the political and social turmoil it would surely create, becomes much more likely.

Every day thousands of people legally cross back and forth between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, on their way to jobs, schools, doctor's appointments, shopping centers and the homes of family and friends. This harmonious exchange has taken place for more than 400 years, uniting neighbors through shared social ties, geography, history and, most importantly, an interlinked economy.

Beyond the people and goods, El Paso and Ciudad Juárez also converge in a cross-border flow of ideas, ambition and aspirations that have shaped the region for centuries. This forward-looking spirit is what attracted Microsoft to the region in 2017, when it launched Microsoft TechSpark to create new economic opportunities and help digitally transform established industries with modern software and cloud services. It's also why Microsoft announced on Monday that it is expanding the TechSpark El Paso program to include Ciudad Juárez and making a $1.5 million investment in the binational Bridge Accelerator. Read more about the TechSpark announcement here.

Foreign policy played a bigger role in last night's Democratic presidential debate than in previous ones, in part because of events that came on the heels of President Trump's surprise, and disastrous, withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria. Some candidates used the opportunity to play up their foreign policy bona fides, but not all of their punches landed cleanly. Here are some key takeaways.

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Will there be agreement, and will negotiations carry on if there is no agreement in the EU?

Lord William Hague: Well, they won't carry on if there is no agreement at the European Council in the next few days. But in the EU, while you always think of things going to the last minute, in fact they usually go beyond the last minute. And that could happen in this case where there could be political agreement, agreement in principle to a Brexit deal. But they'd have to have another European Council, and more detail hammering out the actual text of it before another summit on the 28th of October, which would mean some extension to Brexit.

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Since Syria's brutal civil war began eight years ago, millions of Syrians have fled their country to escape the bombs and bullets. But hundreds of thousands have been displaced within Syria's borders, where they languish in packed refugee camps. The al-Hol camp in northern Syria is sprawling, and of its nearly 70,000 residents, some 11,000 are family members of foreign ISIS fighters, according to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. The surprise American withdrawal from northern Syria last week paved the way for Turkey and Syria's Bashar al-Assad to move in. Some 160,000 civilians have now fled the border region that Turkey is bombarding, deepening a humanitarian crisis in a stretch of Syria that had been relatively secure since the defeat of ISIS's self-declared caliphate back in March. Here's a look at the camps for displaced people in the area.

Mozambique's democracy test Mozambicans voted yesterday in an election that will test a fragile peace accord between the ruling Frelimo party, led by president Filipe Nyusi, and Renamo, a former rebel group-turned-opposition party. The two factions were on opposite sides of a Cold War-tinged civil war that killed an estimated 1 million people between 1977 and 1992. Frelimo, which has ruled Mozambique since independence, has been losing popularity due to a corruption scandal, but is likely to hold onto power at the national level. Renamo, which foreswore violence just two months ago in exchange for electoral reforms that will help the party, will be hoping to make regional gains that allow it to win some key governorships. Disputes over the final vote count and even outright fraud or violence are possible in coming days, particularly if Renamo fails to make its hoped-for gains.

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