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Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn?

Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn?

Promising "a new golden age," Boris Johnson, the United Kingdom's new prime minister, has only just taken his seat at 10 Downing Street, and already it looks possible that the UK is on a path toward early elections, a Labour Party-led government, and maybe even another Brexit referendum.

How might all that happen? To answer that questions, we must answer these questions…


What is Boris Johnson's Brexit strategy? The new PM hopes to succeed where now-former PM Theresa May failed—by persuading European negotiators to make him a new Brexit offer that can win a majority in the House of Commons.

To accomplish this, Johnson hopes to persuade Europe that he's much more serious than May about leaving the EU without an agreement on the future of the UK-EU relationship – a so-called "no deal" Brexit. At the same time, he wants to balance that credible threat with a charm offensive designed to get a favorable deal.

Is that strategy likely to work? Probably not. Johnson has the same problem that brought down Theresa May: his party is deeply divided on Brexit. Some members want to avoid a no-deal Brexit at all costs for fear it would inflict long-lasting damage on the UK's economy and international standing. Others insist the new government must honor its commitment to deliver Brexit for the majority who voted for it, by whatever means necessary.

For now, most within his party are content to give Johnson a chance. But it won't be long before he must choose which path to follow. When he does, he'll alienate large numbers of Tories on one side or the other.

European negotiators know all this. That's why there is little reason for them to offer the Brexit concessions that Johnson is hoping for.

Why are early national elections becoming more likely? There are two paths toward an early election, and both are credible. First, once he's confident that Conservative Party divisions give him the needed votes, Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn could call for a vote of no-confidence in Johnson's government.

If the measure passes, Johnson would have 14 days to win back the confidence of parliament. If he fails, we could have a new PM from within the Conservative Party, but it's much more likely that national elections would be held.

The second path would entail Johnson calling early elections himself because he thinks the specter of a Prime Minister Jeremy Corbyn can help him use a new vote to win a bigger majority, strengthening his bargaining power with Europe. Johnson appears to have ample confidence in his own political skills and might prefer the role of flamboyant campaigner to that of Brexit negotiator haggling with Brussels.

How would new elections shape up? Johnson might be forced into an alliance of convenience with Nigel Farage and his Brexit Party, while disgust with the Conservative Party's failure to sort out the Brexit mess might well send enough votes toward Labour to allow them to form a government that includes a voting agreement with Liberal Democrats and Scottish Nationalists. (The Lib Dems said this week they won't support a Labour-led pact, but election results might change their minds.)

The bottom line: Jeremy Corbyn himself has never been an EU fan. But his party wants a revote, and he's had to agree to support one. That's why, if there are fresh elections and Corbyn becomes prime minister, a second Brexit referendum, with all the political and social turmoil it would surely create, becomes much more likely.

Meet Carlo Fortini, a young geophysical engineer whose passion for speed and challenge resonates in everything he does. When he is not racing on his motorbike, you can find Carlo operating one of the most powerful supercomputers in the world at Eni's Green Data Center in Po Valley, Italy. Here, he brings his technical and creative expertise to develop new software for underground exploration.

Watch the latest Faces of Eni episode to learn more about what drives Carlo.

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Back in 2016, presidential candidate Donald Trump presented his vision for an "America First" foreign policy, which symbolized a radical departure from the US' longtime approach to international politics and diplomacy.

In electing Donald Trump, a political outsider, to the top job, American voters essentially gave him a mandate to follow through on these promises. So, has he?

Trade

"A continuing rape of our country."

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So, the US presidential election is now just days away, and today's selection is focusing on a specific aspect of foreign policy that will certainly change depending on who wins in the presidential contest—namely America's approach to Iran.

You've heard me talk before about the many similarities between Trump and Biden on some international policies, like on China or on Afghanistan. But Iran is definitely not one of those. Trump hated the JCPOA, the 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, put together under the Obama administration, and he walked away from it unilaterally. Joe Biden, if he were to become president, would try to bring it back.

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Following the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, US President George W. Bush demanded that Afghanistan's Taliban government surrender Osama bin Laden and end support for al-Qaeda. The Taliban refused.

On October 7, US bombs began falling on Taliban forces. NATO allies quickly pledged support for the US, and US boots hit the ground in Afghanistan two weeks later.

Thus began a war, now the longest in US history, that has killed more than 3,500 coalition soldiers and 110,000 Afghans. It has cost the American taxpayer nearly $3 trillion. US allies have also made human and material sacrifices.

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