GZERO Media logo

Here's You Eggnog Snorkel: What You Missed Over the Holidays

Here's You Eggnog Snorkel: What You Missed Over the Holidays

While you were celebrating the holidays, we kept track of the last few stories from 2017 that will cast a shadow into this year.


News from one big country that’s not celebrating the New Year (yet)

Well it’s not New Year’s in Iran — Nowruz isn’t for another three months — but thousands of Iranians are on the streets in a dozen cities. These are the largest protests the country has seen since 2009. Social media have been blocked and as of this writing, more than 20 are dead. Here are a few key questions answered:

First, what are they protesting about? The initial demonstrations have focused on economic issues and corruption — unemployment is above 12%, youth unemployment is more than twice that, and food prices recently soared. Most of the economic gains from the opening that resulted from the Iran nuclear deal have gone to the oil sector, leaving ordinary Iranians no better off. As the protests have grown, some participants are taking direct aim at the political system, the clerical establishment, and Iran’s foreign policy.

Second, how do they compare to past protests? In 2009, more than a million people turned out, mainly in the capital, Tehran, to demand a recount after a fraudulent election. Those protests were led by prominent reformist figures within the governing establishment. The current protests, by contrast, are much smaller, more decentralized, and lacking in clear demands — but they are also more spontaneous and widespread throughout the country. One amazing statistic: in 2009 there were 1 million smartphones in Iran — today there are more than 48 million.

Third, who benefits? It remains to be seen whether these protests will helpthe cause of moderates like President Hassan Rouhani, who want to reform the economy further, or hardliners who are skeptical of the Iran deal and keen to point out its economic shortcomings.

Or, a more interesting possibility altogether: could these decentralized, leaderless protests spin beyond the “reformist vs hardliner” parameters of the Iranian political spectrum altogether, and pose a new kind of challenge to the clerics who have run the country for almost four decades?

Kim Jong-un: the olive branch and the nuclear button

North Korean Dear Leader Kim Jong-un’s New Years’ address included an unusual appeal for fresh talks with South Korea. But Kim also warned Washington that the entire US is, he says, within range of his arsenal and that the “nuclear button is still on [his] desk.” Kim may be trying to drive a wedgebetween the US, which has threatened military strikes to stop Kim’s nuclear program — spoiler alert: Kim won’t give up his nukes — and South Korean President Moon Jae-in, who was elected last year in part on his pledge to improve relations with the North.

Italy dissolved its parliament ahead of March election

The move officially opened the campaign season for an election that could be pivotal for Italy and for Europe. If the anti-EU Five Star movement performs well — a distinct possibility — it would raise existential questions for the EU about Italy’s continued commitment to membership. Even if Five Star doesn’t get enough votes to form a government, Italy’s next governing coalition will almost certainly be an unstable and fragmented one.

ISIS killed dozens at a Shia cultural center in Kabul

ISIS has shown resilience in Afghanistan even after Trump dropped the “Mother of All Bombs” and sent more troops there last year. The Islamic State lost its strongholds in Syria and Iraq in 2017, but it’s been methodically setting up shop in other weak, conflict-riddled states like Afghanistan, Yemen, Somalia, and Libya. That will be a big story this year.

Saudi Arabia’s War against Iranian-backed rebels in Yemen reached the 1,000-day mark

The war, a stalemate that has fomented one of the world’s worst humanitarian disasters, is the brainchild of recently-elevated Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman. As he prepares to take power — potentially this year — Prince Mohammed has to find a way out of a strategic quagmire without looking like he’s caving to Tehran.

Retirement planning interlude: what a way to go out

Perks for Zimbabwe’s ousted former President Robert Mugabe include some two-dozen permanent staff, three new cars every five years, and a newly built eight-bedroom residence or its equivalent in cash, according to a notice issued by the country’s new leader. Call your financial planner right now and make demands.

Democracy is Weah it’s at: a Liberian bright spot

Not long ago we wrote about the challenges to democracy globally, as support for authoritarianism grows. But the clean election of former star footballer George Weah as president of Liberia is a bright spot — it’s the first time the war-ravaged country has seen a peaceful transfer of power since 1944. Now comes the hard part — translating star power into sound governance so that democracy is seen as effective.

Khant Thaw Htoo is a young engineer who works in Eni's Sakura Tower office in the heart of Yangon. As an HSE engineer, he monitors the safety and environmental impact of onshore and offshore operations. He also looks out for his parents' well-being, in keeping with Myanmar's traditions.

Learn more about Khant in the final episode of the Faces of Eni series, which focuses on Eni's employees around the world.

On his first day as president, Joe Biden signed a remarkable series of executive orders. Boom! The US rejoins the Paris Climate Accord. Bang! The United States rejoins the World Health Organization. Pow! No more ban on immigration from many Muslim-majority countries. Biden's press secretary reminded reporters later in the day that all these orders merely begin complex processes that take time, but the impact is still dramatic.

If you lead a country allied with the US, or you're simply hoping for some specific commitment or clear and credible statement of purpose from the US government, you might feel a little dizzy today. The sight of an American president (Barack Obama) signing his name, of the next president (Donald Trump) erasing that name from the same legislation/bill, and then the following president (Biden) signing it back into law again will raise deep concerns over the long-term reliability of the world's still-most-powerful nation.

More Show less

"There needs to be a dramatic and deep reduction in the amount of debt on the poorest countries. That's clear." As the world's poorest nations struggle to recover from a devastating pandemic, World Bank President David Malpass argues that freeing them of much of their debt will be key. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World.

Listen: Renowned tech journalist Kara Swisher has no qualms about saying that social media companies bear responsibility for the January 6th pro-Trump riots at the Capitol and will likely be complicit in the civil unrest that may continue well into Biden's presidency. It's no surprise, she argues, that the online rage that platforms like Facebook and Twitter intentionally foment translated into real-life violence. But if Silicon Valley's current role in our national discourse is untenable, how can the US government rein it in? That, it turns out, is a bit more complicated. Swisher joins Ian Bremmer on our podcast.

Ian Bremmer discusses the World In (more than) 60 Seconds:

Biden's first scheduled call with a world leader will be with Canada's Justin Trudeau. What's going on with the Keystone Pipeline?

Well, Biden said that that's it. Executive order, one of the first is that he will stop any construction or development of the Keystone Pipeline. This is of course an oil pipeline that would allow further oil sands oil to come to the United States. The infrastructure is significantly overstretched, it's led to backlogs, inefficiency, accidents, all the rest, but it also facilitates more energy development and keeps prices comparatively down if you get it done. So, there are lots of reasons why the energy sector in Canada wants it. Having said all of that, Trudeau, even though he's been a supporter of Keystone XL, let's keep in mind that he did not win support in Alberta, which is where the big energy patch in Canada is located. This is a real problem for the government of Alberta, Canada is a very decentralized federal government, even more so than the United States. The premier of Alberta is immensely unhappy with Biden right now, they've taken a $1.5 billion equity stake in the project. I expect there will actually be litigation against the United States by the government of Alberta. But Trudeau is quite happy with Biden, his relationship was Trump was always walking on eggshells. The USMCA in negotiations ultimately successful but were very challenging for the Canadians, so too with the way Trump engaged in relations on China. All of this, the fact that Trump left the nuclear agreement with Iran, the Paris Climate Accords, WHO, all of that is stuff that Trudeau strongly opposed. He's going to be much more comfortable with this relationship. He's delighted that the first call from Biden is to him. And it certainly creates a level of normalcy in the US-Canada relationship that is very much appreciated by our neighbors to the North.

More Show less
The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's Newsletter: Signal