PUTIN’S OWN-GOAL?

Since the World Cup began, the Russian team’s goal differential has been +4 points. Over the same period, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s approval rating has rung up a differential of… negative 14 points, according to Kremlin-connected pollster VTsIOM. His current rating of 63 percent nears his historic lows, sitting roughly where he was back in 2014, when Putin-fatigue and economic malaise had taken their toll until the invasion of Crimea sent his numbers soaring.


What’s going on? Two weeks ago, the Russian government announced it would increase the pension age from 60 to 65 for men and 55 to 63 for women. The change was long overdue for an inefficient and underfunded system, but it sure wasn’t popular. For one thing, life expectancy for Russian men born in the 1960s is 62 years — “we’ll see our pensions — in the grave” read one choice poster at scattered anti-reform protests this weekend.

The pensions fiasco has hurt Putin’s numbers badly for two reasons. The first is simple math: there are currently about 43 million pensioners in Russia — that’s almost a third of the population. They have long been among the most stalwart Putin supporters, and he’s just angered all of them in one go.

Second, a large part of Putin’s appeal has always been the sense that he moved Russia beyond the troubles of the 1990s, when post-Soviet economic chaos reduced much of Russia — in particular elderly pensioners — to penury and humiliation. After a botched experiment with pension reforms in 2005 provoked huge mid-winter protests by old folks, the government swore off any further changes and plowed more and more money, unsustainably, into pensions. It took 13 more years for Putin to approve a bigger reform — and he only did it after his (third) re-election back in March was comfortably in the bag.

So what happens next? Putin has kept a low profile in recent days, opting not to turn up for the Russian teams stunning defeat of former world champs Spain on Sunday. Protests have so far been small, owing to some unusually thrilling World Cup soccer. But when the tournament euphoria wears off, Putin will have to confront the first serious challenge to his popularity in more than a decade. Who’ll take the fall?

Legislators in 8 US states have recently passed laws to limit abortions, thrusting the contentious issue into the center of the country's political debate ahead of the 2020 presidential election. The bills are intended, in part, to force the US Supreme Court to revisit its landmark 1973 Roe v Wade decision, which gave women the right to choose to terminate pregnancy. Here's a look at how other countries around the world regulate abortion at the national level, as well as a region-by-region snapshot of how prevalent the practice is today, compared to 30 years ago.

Last week, as trade tensions continued to rise between China and the US, the Trump administration landed one of the heaviest blows yet on Beijing, moving to severely restrict the Chinese tech and telecoms giant Huawei's ability to do business with American firms.

What happened? Two things: The Trump administration formally banned sales of Huawei telecoms equipment in the US. More importantly, it also prohibited American firms from selling their technology to Huawei without a special license.

Why? It's complicated. Technically, Huawei was blacklisted from acquiring US technology due to alleged violations of US sanctions against Iran. But the US is also concerned that Huawei could allow Beijing to spy on or disrupt data flowing across the next-generation 5G data networks of the US or its allies. President Trump may also believe the moves will give him extra leverage in his broader fight with Beijing over trade and technology.

The fallout is already starting to hit. Here's where:

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An Austrian politician got drunk with a Russian woman in Ibiza a few years ago and said some things that have now broken up his country's government.

That's right, over the weekend the German press released a video secretly recorded on the Spanish resort island just before Austria's 2017 elections, in which Heinz-Christian Strache, the leader of the far-right Freedom Party of Austria (FPO), tells a woman posing as the niece of a Kremlin-connected Russian oligarch that if she donates money to his party, she'll get lucrative government contracts.

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Direct(ed) Democracy In Russia – After thousands of people protested the construction of a new cathedral in a nice park in Yekaterinburg, Russia's fourth largest city, President Putin weighed in to stop construction until a popular referendum can be held. What does that tell us? Well, for one thing, Putin is probably a little more sensitive to public unrest after seeing his approval rating pummeled by a botched pension reform last year. But more to the point, this is a nice illustration of how democracy works in Russia: the new tsar orders accountability to happen when and where it suits his interests.

The Size of Modi's Election Victory – Eight different exit polls released over the weekend show Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi's BJP party comfortably ahead in the country's 6-week national election. Voting ended on Sunday, with final results due on Thursday. How big will the BJP's margin be? In 2014, the party won the first outright parliamentary majority in India in 30 years, but after mixed economic results and rising concerns about sectarian tensions, the BJP went into this election on shakier ground. We're watching to see if Modi heads into his second 5-year term emboldened with another majority, or if he's forced to cobble together an unwieldy coalition of parties in order to govern.

What We're Ignoring: Cash for Peace and a Southern Switcheroo

The Deal of the Millennium – President Trump has a plan to secure peace between Israel and Palestine. That plan is: buy it. The administration announced over the weekend that it will hold a "economic workshop" in Bahrain in late June to get Gulf and other Arab states to funnel aid to Palestine, in exchange for which the Palestinians are expected to drop their long-held demands for an end to Israeli settlements, the designation of East Jerusalem as their capital, and (some form of) formal statehood. We're skeptical that cold cash will solve one of the most intractable conflicts on earth. Also, it's not a great sign that the Palestinians themselves don't even plan to attend.

Don't Cry for Veep, Argentina – With her country in crisis (yet again), Cristina de Fernández Kirchner, the controversial left-wing populist who ran Argentina between 2007 and 2015, is increasingly well-positioned to return to power in elections later this year. But over the weekend she pulled a surprise move, announcing that she'd be running only as vice president, allowing former aide Alberto Fernández, whose politics are seen as somewhat more moderate than hers, to top the ticket. We get that it's an electoral strategy meant to broaden Kirchner's appeal among centrist voters, but let's be serious: if the ticket wins, only one Fernández will really be running the country – AND SPOILER: IT'S NOT GOING TO BE ALBERTO.