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A Tale of Three Meetings

A Tale of Three Meetings

Moon-Kim: As I write, South Korea’s Moon Jae-in and North Korea’s Kim Jong-un are sitting exactly 2,018 millimeters apart (in honor of this 2018 summit) in a “Peace House” inside the demilitarized zone (DMZ). It’s the first meeting between leaders of the two Koreas since 2007.


This is must-watch TV, but on substance, don’t expect the dawning of a new day. Maybe Moon and Kim will reopen the Kaesong Industrial Complex, a project that employs tens of thousands of North Korean workers at South Korean-owned factories. Maybe they’ll allow reunions for some of the 60,000 family members separated by the Korean War. These things matter for people’s lives, even if they don’t shift the international status quo. They have produced a “peace agreement,” though not one that moves US troops, the DMZ, or its landmines. And the word “denuclearization” won’t mean much until Kim defines it for Trump and makes clear what he expects in return.

Beyond symbolism, the meeting’s greatest importance is as prelude to the much-anticipated meeting Kim hopes to have with President Trump in May or June. For today, we can enjoy the pageantry as the North and South Korean leaders plant a commemorative pine tree.

Trump-Merkel: After President Trump’s back-patting, high-fiving boys club meeting with Emmanuel Macron, the French president left Washington with little more than Shinzo Abe won from Trump the week before. Like Moon and Kim, Macron and Trump planted a tree together, but Macron got no pledge to spare the Iran deal, no reversal on the Paris climate accord, and no long-term US commitment in Syria.

What hope then for Germany’s Angela Merkel, who meets with Trump today? She won’t play golf with Trump, as Abe did, or hold hands with him, as Macron did. She won’t have more success than Macron in changing Trump’s mind on Iran or persuade him to offer Europe a permanent waiver on steel tariffs. (Trump might extend the waiver beyond its current expiration date of May 1, but “permanent” is more than he’s likely to give.) He’ll talk tough on trade deficits, she’ll look bored, both will wave, and the curtain will fall. Europe’s two heaviest hitters will have taken their turns at bat this week. Like Japan’s Abe, they will have little to show for it.

Modi-Xi: A much more interesting conversation is taking place today and tomorrow in Wuhan, China, where India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi meets with China’s President Xi Jinping. Talks between Modi and Xi are intended to manage tensions rather than break new ground, but given the stakes between these Asian powers, any progress would be significant.

They’ll discuss how best to avoid a repeat of last summer’s 73-day border faceoff that inspired Indian and Chinese troops to (literally) throw rocks at one another. They’ll talk about China’s Belt and Road investment plan, its expanding ties with Pakistan, its growing presence in the Indian Ocean, and India’s concerns about all these things.

The most promising aspect of this meeting is that it centers on informal private conversations between Xi and Modi. Asia’s two most important leaders won’t plant a tree together, but they might build a new level of personal trust.

Microsoft released a new annual report, called the Digital Defense Report, covering cybersecurity trends from the past year. This report makes it clear that threat actors have rapidly increased in sophistication over the past year, using techniques that make them harder to spot and that threaten even the savviest targets. For example, nation-state actors are engaging in new reconnaissance techniques that increase their chances of compromising high-value targets, criminal groups targeting businesses have moved their infrastructure to the cloud to hide among legitimate services, and attackers have developed new ways to scour the internet for systems vulnerable to ransomware. Given the leap in attack sophistication in the past year, it is more important than ever that steps are taken to establish new rules of the road for cyberspace: that all organizations, whether government agencies or businesses, invest in people and technology to help stop attacks; and that people focus on the basics, including regular application of security updates, comprehensive backup policies, and, especially, enabling multi-factor authentication. Microsoft summarized some of the most important insights in this year's report, including related suggestions for people and businesses.

Read the whole post and report at Microsoft On The Issues.

Donald Trump's presidency has irked a lot of people around the world. And in fairness, that's no surprise. He was elected in part to blow up long-standing assumptions about how international politics, trade, and diplomatic relations are supposed to work.

But while he has correctly identified some big challenges — adapting NATO to the 21st century, managing a more assertive China, or ending America's endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq — his impulsive style, along with his restrictions on trade and immigration, have alienated many world leaders. Global polls show that favorable views of the US have plummeted to all-time lows in many countries, particularly among traditional American allies in Europe.

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GZERO Media, in partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Eurasia Group, today hosted its second virtual town hall on the hunt for a COVID-19 vaccine and the challenges of its distribution.

The panel was moderated by New York Times science and health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli and featured Gates Foundation's Deputy Director of Vaccines & Human Immunobiology, Lynda Stuart; Eurasia Group's Rohitesh Dhawan, Managing Director of Energy, Climate & Resources; Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman; and Gayle E. Smith, the president & CEO of ONE Campaign and former Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Watch the full video above.

The enormous scale of the coronavirus pandemic was captured earlier this week as the global death toll surpassed 1 million people. As the weight of the grim milestone sunk in, the New York Times noted that COVID-19 has now killed more people this year than the scourges of HIV, malaria, influenza, and cholera — combined. While some countries like Germany and South Korea are models in how to curb the virus' spread through social distancing and mask wearing, other countries around the world have recently seen caseloads surge again, raising fears of a dreaded "second wave" of infections. Here's a look at countries where the per-capita caseload has spiked in recent days.

"The jury is out" European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says when asked if things in Europe will get economically worse before they get better. "All I know is that it's going to be a journey, and probably a long journey." Her conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of a new GZERO World episode.

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