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Us vs Them

Us vs Them

Ian Bremmer (president of GZERO Media and Eurasia Group) has a new book out next week. It’s called “Us vs Them: The Failure of Globalism.” I expect many people will soon be arguing about both its interpretation of the present and its vision of the future.


A few words on the main points of argument:

1- Ongoing economic and technological changes in today’s world make it much harder for government to meet our needs. Globalization and new technologies threaten our jobs. Fights over migration have transformed borders into fault-lines. Predatory companies, other governments, and criminals compete for access to the data we produce. Our government isn’t protecting us.

2- These problems open doors for politicians who promise to protect “us” from “them.” Depending on the country and the context, “them” can be establishment politicians, foreigners, racial, ethnic or religious minorities, bankers, reporters, the police, the criminal, or supporters of the other political party.

3- This trend is fully visible in Europe, where far-right political parties have made extraordinary gains in recent years, in Britain (see Brexit), and in the United States (see Donald Trump and the most extreme voices in both parties.)

4- But look to the future, and you’ll see this isn’t just a rich-world problem or a threat only to democracies. Automation of the workplace, in particular, will disrupt the ways that developing countries build and sustain middle classes. These places already have weaker political institutions than in wealthy democracies, and many have ready-made “us vs them” racial, ethnic, and religious divisions already within their borders.

5- In both developed and developing countries, some governments will respond by building walls, real and virtual. Some of these walls will be designed to protect citizens from outsiders. Others will divide this group from that group. Still others will protect government from its people.

6- But there will also be governments — inspired by or partnering with the private sector, philanthropists, and individual visionaries — that experiment with ways to update the social contract for the 21st century. How to expand our conception of education? How to create a social safety net for the gig economy? How to tackle inequality of opportunity? How to restore public confidence in the ability of government to serve citizens?

Ian’s conclusion — Mocking Donald Trump and deriding the world’s strongmen is too easy and misses the point: The world is shifting beneath our feet. We must plan for the best outcomes and prepare for the worst.

Microsoft released a new annual report, called the Digital Defense Report, covering cybersecurity trends from the past year. This report makes it clear that threat actors have rapidly increased in sophistication over the past year, using techniques that make them harder to spot and that threaten even the savviest targets. For example, nation-state actors are engaging in new reconnaissance techniques that increase their chances of compromising high-value targets, criminal groups targeting businesses have moved their infrastructure to the cloud to hide among legitimate services, and attackers have developed new ways to scour the internet for systems vulnerable to ransomware. Given the leap in attack sophistication in the past year, it is more important than ever that steps are taken to establish new rules of the road for cyberspace: that all organizations, whether government agencies or businesses, invest in people and technology to help stop attacks; and that people focus on the basics, including regular application of security updates, comprehensive backup policies, and, especially, enabling multi-factor authentication. Microsoft summarized some of the most important insights in this year's report, including related suggestions for people and businesses.

Read the whole post and report at Microsoft On The Issues.

Donald Trump's presidency has irked a lot of people around the world. And in fairness, that's no surprise. He was elected in part to blow up long-standing assumptions about how international politics, trade, and diplomatic relations are supposed to work.

But while he has correctly identified some big challenges — adapting NATO to the 21st century, managing a more assertive China, or ending America's endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq — his impulsive style, along with his restrictions on trade and immigration, have alienated many world leaders. Global polls show that favorable views of the US have plummeted to all-time lows in many countries, particularly among traditional American allies in Europe.

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GZERO Media, in partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Eurasia Group, today hosted its second virtual town hall on the hunt for a COVID-19 vaccine and the challenges of its distribution.

The panel was moderated by New York Times science and health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli and featured Gates Foundation's Deputy Director of Vaccines & Human Immunobiology, Lynda Stuart; Eurasia Group's Rohitesh Dhawan, Managing Director of Energy, Climate & Resources; Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman; and Gayle E. Smith, the president & CEO of ONE Campaign and former Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Watch the full video above.

The enormous scale of the coronavirus pandemic was captured earlier this week as the global death toll surpassed 1 million people. As the weight of the grim milestone sunk in, the New York Times noted that COVID-19 has now killed more people this year than the scourges of HIV, malaria, influenza, and cholera — combined. While some countries like Germany and South Korea are models in how to curb the virus' spread through social distancing and mask wearing, other countries around the world have recently seen caseloads surge again, raising fears of a dreaded "second wave" of infections. Here's a look at countries where the per-capita caseload has spiked in recent days.

"The jury is out" European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde says when asked if things in Europe will get economically worse before they get better. "All I know is that it's going to be a journey, and probably a long journey." Her conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of a new GZERO World episode.

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