We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.

US and Chinese negotiators were back at it this week. Talks went nowhere, and the next round of tit-for-tat tariffs, on $16 billion in goods on each side, has gone into effect. The Trump administration's threatened next step is to impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on an additional $200 billion in Chinese goods in coming weeks.
Over the next few weeks, keep an eye on potential friction over the status of Taiwan, a central issue that feeds Chinese suspicion of US motives.
The National Defense Authorization Act, which calls “long-term strategic competition with China” a top US priority, also recommends that the US “improve the defense capabilities of self-ruled Taiwan.”China’s Defense Ministry was quick to respond. “The Taiwan issue concerns China’s sovereignty and territorial integrity and is the most important and sensitive core issue in Sino-US relations… We urge the US to… carefully handle Taiwan-related issues.”
Washington hasn’t actually done much to help Taiwan lately, and there’s nothing new about US tensions with China over its status. But there are two factors that make Taiwan a more potentially dangerous flashpoint than it has been in many years:
- China’s President Xi Jinping now leads a much more assertive Chinese foreign policy than any of his predecessors, and his insistence that Taiwan is part of China has become much more forceful in recent months.
- There’s a US-China trade war underway, and Chinese officials are watching carefully for any evidence of US ambitions to contain China’s rise.
The bottom-line: Fair trade or containment of a rising challenger? It’s harder to resolve a high-stakes conflict when the two sides can’t agree on why it’s being fought.