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Supporters of "I Reject" option react to early results of the referendum on a new Chilean constitution in Valparaiso, Chile.
Can Chile get from “No” to “Yes”?
Sometimes the worst defeats can be the best new beginnings.
It’s been more than a week since Chile’s ultra-progressive draft constitution suffered a landslide rejection. Two-thirds of Chileans voted against it. Turnout was the highest in 30 years. The “No” vote won across every region and major demographic. It wasn’t even close.
But as Chile’s lawmakers get to work this week to map out a do-over, could that stunning defeat actually be a good thing for Chile’s polarized democracy?
There have been many post-mortems on the draft constitution. Some Chileans were wary of its progressive promises on economic and social issues. Others were worried about its establishment of a “plurinational state” or were baffled by woolly clauses about “transverse dialogue between the diverse cosmovisions of the peoples and nations.”
Many voted it down simply because it was supported by the young, left-wing President Gabriel Boric, whose struggles with the economy and crime have cratered his approval rating after just six months in office.
But the biggest issue, according to Isabel Aninat, a policy expert and dean of the law school at Adolfo Ibáñez University in Santiago, is that neither the document nor the constituent assembly that wrote it ended up reflecting the attitudes of the average, median voter. “Chilean voters are much more moderate and much less polarized than the elites,” she says.
And those average voters still want change. A new poll by Chile’s Cadem pollster shows two-thirds of Chileans stillwant to rework or replace the existing constitution, which means there’s an opportunity to do it all over in a way that builds a stronger consensus and yields a document that can win approval.
“The people who are writing the new one are going to have to be careful,” says María Luisa Puig, an Andean region expert at Eurasia Group. “They’ll need to think ‘if I don’t pull together a product that is as consensus-building as possible, the thing is going to be rejected again,’ and then it’s end of story — you can’t be rejected twice.”
That process is what lawmakers are hashing out right now. Lower house President Raúl Soto said Monday that the country’s political parties and the president are “advancing, without rush but without pause” on the roadmap towards a second constitutional process, which could be released before the country’s Independence Day, September 18th.
Key questions surround the timing of new referenda and time limits on new drafting conventions. But the most important issue, says Aninat, is who does the writing.
The last constituent assembly was elected by a low-turnout vote during the pandemic, and it included a number of independents who in practice skewed heavily towards the left or who were seen as unserious – one leading member was outed for faking a cancer diagnosis, while another asked to vote on the document by video from his shower. These individual antics had an outsized impact on people’s perceptions of the work the assembly was doing.
The new process will need to address the participation of independents, perhaps favoring established party representatives instead. And it will almost certainly include a number of appointed experts to help guide the process.
A strong slate of candidates could help the parties rebuild some of the trust that ordinary Chileans have lost in their political system, says Aninat. In a 2021 Latinobarómetro regional study, only 22% of Chileans felt “close” to their political parties.
The defeat has given Boric an opportunity to correct course too. Grappling with a 39% approval rating, he reshuffled his cabinet last week, ousting two long-time allies from his student radical days and replacing them with figures from the country’s traditional center-left. With three and a half years left in his term, the stunning, early defeat he suffered on the constitution offers a chance to reset.
There’s no guarantee that Chile will get it right the second time around. There are still divisions in Chilean society over many issues that constitution-writers will have to grapple with – the state’s role in the economy and the environment, the rights of Indigenous communities, abortion rights, and so on.
And even among those who want to move on from the current constitution, there are splits about whether to replace it entirely, or merely to update it.
But the decisive blow of the “No” vote has provided an opportunity to reset the terms of the debate and to structure it in a way that drives towards greater consensus. In a region where radical shifts from left to right are becoming the norm, Chile has an opportunity to set a different example.
Aninat says that whereas this first constitutional process was “cathartic” – coming out of the massive social upheavals of 2019 and 2020 — “the new process can be more reflective. We have a chance to put our thoughts into the next 30 years and leave that catharsis behind.”
Chileans rally against the proposed new constitution in Santiago.
Ahead of referendum, Chileans lukewarm on new constitution
On Sunday, Chileans go to the polls again to have their say on a proposed new constitution for the country.
Following earlier votes on whether a new charter was necessary and then who'd get to draft it, Chileans will decide whether to approve or reject a new constitution that enshrines some fundamental new rights and expands the role of the state in looking out for poor citizens and other marginalized groups.
How will the charter change Chile if it passes, and what happens if it doesn't? We get some clarity from Eurasia Group experts Yael Sternberg and Luciano Sigalov.
How did we get here?
The constitutional rewrite was proposed by former President Sebastián Piñera as a conciliatory solution following massive protests that erupted in late 2019 after a 30-peso hike to the metro fare in the capital, Santiago – the last straw for many fed-up Chileans.
The protests unleashed social anger over deeply entrenched inequality; and the effects of neoliberal policies protected by the constitution drafted during the dictatorship of Augusto Pinochet (1973-1990). After being delayed for several months because of the pandemic, in October 2020 Chileans overwhelmingly voted in a referendum to write a new charter by way of a constituent convention.
The members of the convention were then elected in May 2021, with leftists and independents winning the most seats. They were able to advance many of their proposals through to the plenary, though the most radical ones did not make it into the final draft. Over time, public trust in the process declined as scandals involving members emerged, and the deliberations dragged out.
What big things were included and left out of the final draft?
In addition to addressing women’s and Indigenous rights, the charter expands environmental protections quite broadly to include environmental “rights.” It redefines water as a natural common good that cannot be appropriated, which might result in some changes in the concession system for mining permits.
While some worried the draft would make Chile’s lucrative copper and lithium industries nearly unviable by placing them under state control, outright nationalization of the mining sector was rejected, and property rights remain mostly intact. Still, the draft marks a major shift from the old constitutional framework and would translate into a less business-friendly environment.
How would the new constitution change Chile's political system?
The new charter entails significant changes. The lower house would coexist with a new Chamber of Regions, replacing the senate though with more limited powers, leading to an asymmetric bicameral system. The minimum age to run for president would be lowered from 35 to 30, and presidential reelection for consecutive terms would be allowed.
In parallel, Chile's regions would control their budgets, have direct democracy mechanisms on some issues, and elect their governors. Furthermore, voting would be mandatory, and gender parity would be promoted among elected officials.
The proposed changes to the political system have been poorly received. Most criticisms point to an ill-defined electoral framework, weak powers for the new upper house, expanded responsibilities for lawmakers, and the potential impact of consecutive presidential reelection on policymaking.
Do recent polls give us a clear indication of whether the draft will pass?
The latest polling shows about 46% of people saying they'll vote against the draft, and 37% in favor. But 17% of Chileans say they’re undecided.
Why? For one thing, the messaging of the “yes” campaign in rallies and on TV has been somewhat weak, while the “no” ads have been more coherent and stronger. All campaigning is banned for the last week before the vote.
Also, a recent scandal involving several activists desecrating a Chilean flag during an approval rally has hurt the “yes” side. While the skit was condemned by some pro-approval figures, it essentially encapsulated the fears the “no” camp has been peddling of a deranged and radically leftist future, leaving us less confident that the text will be approved. We know Chileans want a new constitution — that’s what 79% said in the first referendum — but maybe just not this constitution.
What happens if it doesn't?
If the proposed text is rejected, the current constitution will remain in place. But since keeping the Pinochet-era charter is politically toxic, that'll likely result in major social and political backlash. In preparation for such a scenario, the government and political parties across the spectrum have already started to discuss the possibility of a new constitutional process.
However, the path would be lengthy and bumpy. For another rewrite, Congress would have to call another constituent election, something that Boric has already suggested yet would take six at least six months.
Agreeing on the rules — not to mention on the content of a new draft — would likely result in bitter discussions and tough-to-swallow political compromises for many. Uncertainty over Chile’s basic rules of the game will remain.
How might the referendum affect President Gabriel Boric?
A rejection would be a massive political blow for Boric early in his four-year term, as he has long advocated for the constitutional change.
Following such a setback, Boric’s ambitious pension and healthcare reforms would be even more difficult to get passed in a divided congress. Tax reform, another one of his flagship initiatives, would still likely win approval given consensus on the need to raise more revenue; but changes and delays would be likely.
More broadly, the administration would struggle to regain the initiative after linking its fate with the outcome of the plebiscite in a context of high inflation, a deteriorating economic outlook, and an unprecedented security crisis.
Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell arrives to testify before the US Senate.
What We're Watching: US Fed's next move, China's stimulus, Chile's president needs a win
All eyes on Powell at Jackson Hole
Updated Aug. 26:Heard of Jackson Hole, Wyoming? That's where all the economic bigwigs from around the world are gathering for an annual three-day event focused on the state of the global economy. In a stark departure from his position throughout much of the pandemic that inflation would be “transitory,” US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said in a keynote address Friday that there would be “some pain” for households and businesses in the months ahead, noting that inflation continues to soar. Powell also said it’s likely that we’ll see a “softening of labor market conditions,” suggesting that record low unemployment – the current silver lining of the economy – could tick upwards. Indeed, the Fed chair sought to defend his track record to economists and central bankers, many of whom have been critical of him for waiting too long to raise interest rates. Many observers took Powell’s address as a sign that the Fed will continue to tighten monetary policy in the months ahead as inflation tops 8% over the previous year. What's more, some economists say the Fed could soon raise rates as high as 4% (its current target rate is 2.25-2.5%), sparking fears of a sharp recession. Still, inflation is mild in the US compared to parts of Europe, particularly the UK, where inflation is estimated to hit a whopping 18.6% early next year.
China grabbing at stimulus straws
China has announced an additional $44 billion worth of stimulus spending on infrastructure to breathe some life into its battered economy. Struggling businesses certainly need help: the real estate sector is drowning in debt, factories are shutting down due to a heat wave and an energy crunch, and rural banks are failing. But more importantly, zero-COVID is hurting both productivity and consumer confidence in a rebound anytime soon — and the government has no plans for relaxing the policy in the near term. It's an open secret that Xi Jinping knows annual GDP growth will fall far short of Beijing's 5.5% target for 2022. In fact, it'll probably end up at around 3% — a dismal performance for the world's second-largest economy. The timing could not be worse for Xi, who's getting ready to secure a norm-defying third term as secretary-general of the ruling Communist Party at the much-anticipated 20th Party Congress this fall. China's leaders are a bit distracted by Taiwan these days, but if they continue to drop the ball on the economy, the CCP’s marriage of convenience to the Chinese people since 1949 might be tested.
Chile’s embattled president needs a win
Chile's President Gabriel Boric is pulling out all the stops ahead of a crucial national vote on Sept. 4 over whether to adopt a new draft constitution that would ditch the Pinochet-era text. Boric – a former student leader who came to power in December 2021 as a change candidate – reintroduced a bill this week to slash the working week from 45 to 40 hours within 5 years. (The legislation has been dead in the water since 2017.) This push comes as Boric, largely seen as a symbol of the region’s “Pink Tide,” is being thrashed in the polls due to soaring inflation, the deteriorating security situation, and some rookie missteps. As a result, many Chileans have soured on the draft constitution (although it was drafted by an independent political body elected by voters) which has sought to entrench Indigenous rights and beef up the role of the state to reduce economic inequality (around 46% say they will vote against the text; 33% in favor). It’s a big shift considering that in 2020, almost 80% of Chileans supported rewriting the constitution. Boric needs a political win, and losing the plebiscite vote would be another big setback for his government.A service member of pro-Russian troops stands guard next to a combat vehicle, with the symbol "Z" seen on its side, in Mariupol, Ukraine.
What We're Watching: A rare win for Putin, Chile drafts constitution, North Korea's COVID catastrophe
Putin enjoys rare win in Ukraine
This week brought more bad news for Vladimir Putin and his invasion. Ukrainian fighters have pushed Russians back from the city of Kharkiv, the fight for the Donbas appears to have stalled, and Russian commentators are becoming more open about their country’s military failures on the internet and even on state-controlled TV. But the surrender of hundreds of Ukrainian fighters from a Mariupol steel plant gives Russia a genuinely important win. First, it clears away the final obstacle to establishing a land bridge that connects Russian-occupied Crimea with the Russian border. Second, it’s a big propaganda win for Putin, who insists the war is aimed partly at “de-Nazifying” Ukraine. Many of those who surrendered belong to the Azov Battalion, a group with a history of ultra-nationalist, white-supremacist politics. Ukraine’s government says it hopes the now-captive troops can be traded for captive Russians, but Russia’s parliament may ban any release of Azov prisoners. Ultimately, Putin will decide their fate. Are they most valuable to him as trophies, or as pawns who provide him with an opportunity to appear magnanimous?
Chile drafts new constitution
Two years ago, the streets of usually staid Chile exploded with inequality protests so big that the government was forced to start the process of rewriting the country’s constitution, a text rooted in the days of Augusto Pinochet’s right-wing dictatorship. Earlier this week, after 10 months of haggling, the constituent assembly made the new draft public. It expands the social safety net, bolsters the power of workers, recognizes Chile’s indigenous population, and establishes rights to healthcare and water. It also streamlines the political system, scrapping the Senate in favor of a single chamber legislature. But it stops short of guaranteeing a right to housing (a major demand of progressive protest leaders), limits state power over the lucrative mining sector, and sticks clearly to the country’s market-based economic model. What happens next? Chileans will vote on a streamlined version of the document in a September plebiscite. So far, support is weak: 46% of those polled said they opposed it, with only 38% in favor. Enthusiasm for the draft will likely grow as the government drums up support, but even if the document is approved, it will probably be by a narrow margin in a deeply polarized society.
Can North Korea overcome COVID wave?
The Hermit Kingdom says nearly 1.5 million people have come down with fevers and that 56 have already died amid the country’s “first” coronavirus outbreak. But whatever Kim Jong Un’s state-controlled media is reporting, it’s bound to be much worse, and this is in a severely isolated country with poor access to COVID tests and no vaccines. Kim has mobilized his military to help distribute medications and ramp up tracing. Having long pushed an ideology of self-reliance, he’s likely to accept aid from China, North Korea’s sole ally, but will refuse any support from South Korea, the United States, or COVAX, the global vaccine initiative. Meanwhile, the North Korean economy and food supply, already in dire straits following two years of pandemic-related closures, face even greater disruptions and shortages, putting millions at risk. The outbreak could offer Kim a chance to crack down and control his population even more, but rising hunger and deaths could also lead to destabilizing discontent.A demonstrator holds a placard reading "New Constitution now" during a protest against Chile's government in Santiago.
How much (constitutional) change will Chileans get?
A year and a half after millions poured into the streets of Santiago to protest inequality and the vestiges of the Pinochet dictatorship, Chileans voted this weekend to elect the 155 people who will rewrite the country's constitution.
The question now is not whether the people want change — clearly they do — but rather how much change their representatives can agree on. Overall, the new text is widely expected to beef up the role of the state in a country where a strong private sector made Chile one of Latin America's wealthiest yet also most unequal nations.
Here are a few things to bear in mind as the constitutional rewrite process kicks off.
Voters punished the right — and the broader political establishment. Sunday night was a shock for Chilean conservatives: the ruling center-right coalition got fewer delegates than their traditional leftist rivals, and failed to secure the one-third of the vote necessary to veto any radical changes. Meanwhile, independent candidates, most of them left-leaning, won a surprising majority in a similar rejection of the entire political class.
In theory, this shift to the left should pave the way for bold reforms in Chile's next constitution. But getting so many independents, many of whom are single-issue advocates, to agree on a wide range of reforms with delegates from the establishment leftist parties they no longer support, will be an uphill climb that adds uncertainty to the process. And if no consensus is reached within 12 months, the charter will stay as is, setting up the country for fresh unrest.
So, where can they find common ground? Most delegates want Chile to have a more robust social safety net. That means spending a lot more on education, healthcare and pensions, which until now have been mostly privatized alongside other essential public services like water. They will also push for the new constitution to enshrine equal rights for women, and to recognize the land rights of indigenous Chileans, who make up about 10 percent of the population but are not even mentioned in the current charter.
It may be harder, though, to get the needed two-thirds majority support on more radical proposals such as mandatory royalties on mining — which is a big deal for the world's top copper producer — or imposing minimum spending thresholds on social programs. Allowing the state to nationalize most private corporations is also unlikely to pass.
And more elections are coming... In late November, Chileans will go to the polls for the third time in little over a year, this time to vote for president, with the deeply unpopular incumbent Sebastián Piñera unable to run for another four years because of term limits. So far no major party has yet decided on a candidate, but constitutional reform will probably be a major campaign issue, especially if little progress has been made on the text by then.
Meanwhile, the rest of South America will be paying close attention. The results of Chile's constitutional election show that the pandemic has done little to calm the wave of social unrest that swept the continent months before COVID. There have been protests about socio economic issues across the Andean region, and strikers in Colombia are currently demanding a lot of the same things as the Chileans did.
What Chile has done is somewhat unique: the people wanted change, and they were given the opportunity to have their say. Chile's constituent assembly was entirely elected by popular vote, and the first ever in the world with gender parity. If the delegates get the job done on time and the text is ratified in a second referendum sometime next year, it'll send a clear message that change can be pursued through the democratic system without having to resort to permanent upheaval.What We're Watching: Chile's new constitution, Bibi hangs on in Israel, Ethiopia's violent vote
Who will write Chile's new constitution? Nineteen months after Chileans flocked to the streets to protest rising inequality, the country's constitution, which dates from the 17-year dictatorship of General Augusto Pinochet, is finally set to be rewritten. And this weekend, Chileans will vote to elect the 155 representatives who are responsible for doing that. The constitutional convention group, which will include dedicated seats for indigenous community representatives and must be at least 50 percent female, will likely include right- and left-leaning representatives who will need to find common ground on revising the neoliberal, free market economic model that has long been the law of the land in Chile. Indeed, privatization of education and healthcare helped Chile become one of the most prosperous states in the region — and also one of the most unequal. Meanwhile, codification of women's rights, a flashpoint issue in Latin America, will also be on the table. The representatives will have nine months to rewrite the document, which will then need to be approved in another referendum.
Israel's "change camp" collapses: In a massive upset for Israel's "change camp" — the anti-Netanyahu bloc led by the centrist Yair Lapid of the Yesh Atid party — Naftali Bennet, who heads the right-wing Yamina party, said Thursday that he will no longer seek to form a unity government with the centrist bloc. This comes amid massive clashes between Jews and Arabs across Israeli cities, and the worst escalation between Israeli forces and Hamas militants in the Gaza Strip since 2014. This development is a massive boon for incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu, who has been desperately seeking to scuttle the formation of a unity government that would oust him from power after 12 years. Netanyahu could try and strike a deal to merge his Likud party with Bennet's Yamina, but it seems unlikely that Netanyahu will be able to cobble together the 61 seats needed to form a coalition government. Israel is now likely headed to another round of elections — its fifth since April 2019. If that happens, Netanyahu will be running his next campaign while facing corruption charges that could send him to jail.
Ethiopia braces for violent elections: In less than a month, Ethiopians in some regions will go to the polls in regional and municipal elections. The votes were delayed last year due to COVID, and come amid rising sectarian violence all over the country. As the civil war in Tigray rages on, all eyes are now on Oromia, Ethiopia's most populous region. Opposition nationalist parties there are boycotting the election because they say Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is harassing them. Despite being an Oromo himself, Abiy is deeply unpopular with Oromo nationalists who say that his political reforms opened a Pandora's box that hurt their interests. The PM's crackdown on protesters demonstrating against the murder of an Oromo nationalist singer last summer didn't help matters. In short, Abiy's ruling party and its allies will win, but many Oromos will consider the result illegitimate, and the political unrest will get worse in this ethnically divided country.