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The other coronavirus contagion concern

The other coronavirus contagion concern

As governments around the world put their countries on lockdown to slow the spread of the coronavirus, there is a growing fear that the global economy and financial system could soon experience another kind of contagion. This week, as the scope of the outbreak became clearer, dire economic data from China and forecasts of a looming global recession started rolling in. Some experts are even starting to use the dreaded D-word, drawing comparisons with the 1929 financial and economic crash that led to the Great Depression.


Coronavirus, and the responses to it, pose two major risks to the economy and financial system. The first is the hit to companies' sales and profits, and workers' wages and jobs. The worse the outbreak, and the harsher the social and economic clampdown needed to manage it, the worse the economic hit will be. Airlines are already warning they may face bankruptcy by May without government assistance. Carmakers and other large manufacturers are closing assembly lines. Millions of restaurant and other service industry workers that are forced into lockdowns may soon be out of jobs and unable to pay bills, student loans, and make rent or mortgage payments. That's one reason stocks have been hammered this week, despite attempts by the US Fed and other central banks to stem the bleeding and shore up confidence.

The second big risk is harder to pin down – that's the risk of financial contagion. Companies going bankrupt and firing workers is bad enough, but it can become an even worse problem if it creates a domino effect where companies can no longer pay back loans, generating losses that could shake confidence in banks and the broader financial system.

Offsetting the coming economic shock would reduce the risk of wider financial contagion, but will require governments around the world to unleash huge resources: both fiscal stimulus to help workers and companies (Italy has already suspended mortgage payments and declared a holiday on household bills, while President Trump has promised support for the airline industry and is now considering sending cash directly to Americans) – and possibly other measures to ensure the smooth operation of the financial system that go beyond what central banks have done to date.

The catch: Decisions about whom to bail out and whom not to will be every bit as politically fraught as they were in 2008-09, when governments around the world were forced to intervene to prevent a much worse collapse – and during a US election campaign, to boot. This time, though, the political wrangling will also take place during an ongoing pandemic that is already stretching many governments around the world to their limits.

Microsoft released a new annual report, called the Digital Defense Report, covering cybersecurity trends from the past year. This report makes it clear that threat actors have rapidly increased in sophistication over the past year, using techniques that make them harder to spot and that threaten even the savviest targets. For example, nation-state actors are engaging in new reconnaissance techniques that increase their chances of compromising high-value targets, criminal groups targeting businesses have moved their infrastructure to the cloud to hide among legitimate services, and attackers have developed new ways to scour the internet for systems vulnerable to ransomware. Given the leap in attack sophistication in the past year, it is more important than ever that steps are taken to establish new rules of the road for cyberspace: that all organizations, whether government agencies or businesses, invest in people and technology to help stop attacks; and that people focus on the basics, including regular application of security updates, comprehensive backup policies, and, especially, enabling multi-factor authentication. Microsoft summarized some of the most important insights in this year's report, including related suggestions for people and businesses.

Read the whole post and report at Microsoft On The Issues.

On Tuesday night, you can finally watch Trump and Biden tangle on the debate stage. But you TOO can go head to head on debate night .. with your fellow US politics junkies.

Print out GZERO's handy debate BINGO cards and get ready to rumble. There are four different cards so that each player may have a unique board. Every time one of the candidates says one of these words or terms, X it on your card. First player to get five across wins. And if you really want to jazz it up, you can mark each of your words by taking a swig of your drink, or doing five burpees, or donating to your favorite charity or political candidate. Whatever gets you tipsy, in shape, or motivated, get the bingo cards here. It's fight night!

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GZERO Media, in partnership with the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation and Eurasia Group, today hosted its second virtual town hall on the hunt for a COVID-19 vaccine and the challenges of its distribution.

The panel was moderated by New York Times science and health reporter Apoorva Mandavilli and featured Gates Foundation's Deputy Director of Vaccines & Human Immunobiology, Lynda Stuart; Eurasia Group's Rohitesh Dhawan, Managing Director of Energy, Climate & Resources; Gates Foundation CEO Mark Suzman; and Gayle E. Smith, the president & CEO of ONE Campaign and former Administrator of the U.S. Agency for International Development.

Watch the full video above.

The enormous scale of the coronavirus pandemic was captured earlier this week as the global death toll surpassed 1 million people. As the weight of the grim milestone sunk in, the New York Times noted that COVID-19 has now killed more people this year than the scourges of HIV, malaria, influenza, and cholera — combined. While some countries like Germany and South Korea are models in how to curb the virus' spread through social distancing and mask wearing, other countries around the world have recently seen caseloads surge again, raising fears of a dreaded "second wave" of infections. Here's a look at countries where the per-capita caseload has spiked in recent days.

Donald Trump's presidency has irked a lot of people around the world. And in fairness, that's no surprise. He was elected in part to blow up long-standing assumptions about how international politics, trade, and diplomatic relations are supposed to work.

But while he has correctly identified some big challenges — adapting NATO to the 21st century, managing a more assertive China, or ending America's endless wars in Afghanistan and Iraq — his impulsive style, along with his restrictions on trade and immigration, have alienated many world leaders. Global polls show that favorable views of the US have plummeted to all-time lows in many countries, particularly among traditional American allies in Europe.

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