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US Election
US President Joe Biden delivers remarks at United Steel Workers headquarters in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, US, April 17, 2024.
President Joe Biden used a meeting in Pennsylvania with United Steel Workers on Wednesday to call for a tripling of steel tariffs on China. Trade representative Katherine Tai, in response to a petition from the union, also announced an investigation of unfair trade practices in China’s shipbuilding industry.
Administration officials insist these moves are about economics, not election-year politics, but there are clearly messages to be drawn here. Aware that his reelection depends on victory in Pennsylvania and other union-heavy Midwest swing states, we can expect Biden to continue to lean into his “friend of the working man” image. As political commentator Paul Begala has noted, Democrats havelost votes in recent years by shifting “from being the party of the factory floor to the party of the faculty lounge.” Biden appears determined to avoid that trap. It also demonstrates that China will remain a go-to election-year political target.
Democrats are also on offense in a crucial Sun Belt swing state. In Arizona, they worked to force a vote this week onrepealing a hyper-controversial law that bans nearly all abortions, a question that highlights deep divisions on this issue within the state’s Republican Party. The aim was to push state GOP lawmakers to take public positions on an issue many of them would rather ignore. On Wednesday, Republicans opted to prevent the vote from happening, leaving the party with political responsibility for defending the 160-year old law.
FILE PHOTO: O.J. Simpson, wearing the blood stained gloves found by Los Angeles Police and entered into evidence in Simpson's murder trial, displays his hands to the jury at the request of prosecutor Christopher Darden in this file photograph from June 15, 1995 as his attorney Johnnie Cochran, Jr. (R.) looks on.
“White Bronco.” “Lance Ito.” “If it doesn’t fit, you must acquit.” “Kato Caelin.” “Johnny Cochran.” Each of these names and moments associated with the 1995 murder trial of ex-football star OJ Simpson, who died of cancer on Wednesday at 76, is a time warp for anyone in America who was even remotely conscious in the mid-1990s.
Simpson, to recall, was accused of killing his ex-wife, Nicole Brown Simpson, and her friend Ron Goldman. And while the proceedings were nearly 30 years ago, there are many ways in which the “trial of the century” lives on today.
For one thing, it helped get America hooked on 24/7 media. These days, when every utterance of every politician, celebrity, conspiracy theorist, or cat is instantly seen and shared by tens of millions on social media, it’s hard to fully grasp just how revolutionary the coverage of the Simpson trial was.
Even before Judge Lance Ito decided to allow cameras in the courtroom, a third of Americans had already tuned in to watch live helicopter-cam footage of the most famous car chase in American history: Simpson’s white Ford Bronco gliding slowly through LA traffic, pursued gingerly by several police cars.
Then, in a first, CNN and Court TV covered nearly every minute of the trial, which lasted eight months. In today’s terms, it was the first livestream. And it certainly produced what we would come to see as “viral moments” – the Bronco chase, OJ trying on the glove, Cochran rhyming to the jury: “If it doesn't fit, you must acquit.”
An America that was just getting used to cable TV quickly became hooked on a televised scandal that had it all: race, class, celebrity, and murder. TV amped the drama, and the drama amped TV, pumping it directly into America’s wide-open eyeballs for over a year. Even President Bill Clinton was reported to have stepped out of a meeting to watch the final verdict.
Racial tensions created parallel realities. Simpson went on trial at a moment of high racial tension in America. Just three years earlier, a mostly white jury acquitted four LA police officers caught on camera beating Rodney King, a Black motorist. The verdict enraged much of Black America and sparked some of the worst race riots the country had seen in years.
And three years later, there was Simpson, a wealthy Black athlete accused of murdering his white ex-wife. Views of the evidence – which, again, the entire country could see alongside the jury – split dramatically along racial lines. Most whites thought he was guilty, most Blacks thought he was framed.
As it happened, Simpson’s all-star lawyers ran laps around the hapless prosecution, and the majority-Black jury acquitted Simpson.
But that settled nothing in the court of public opinion. A poll at the time showed that three-quarters of Black Americans believed that Simpson was innocent, while fewer than half of white Americans thought the jury had reached the right verdict.
It was not until 20 years later – after Simpson, convicted of liability for the murders in a separate civil case, wrote a quasi-confessional book titled, amazingly, “If I Did It” – that a majority of Black America would come to believe that Simpson was guilty. Even then, there was still a 25-point difference between white and Black views.
But class was also part of the drama. A huge majority of Americans believed that Simpson’s immense wealth had helped him beat the rap.
After all, his lawyers, known as the “Dream Team,” included some of the most prominent (and expensive) attorneys in America – not only Cochran, but towering figures like Alan Dershowitz, F. Lee Bailey, and Robert Shapiro. A dream like that isn’t purchased for a song.
So alongside the racial dimension of the verdict, many Americans saw it as evidence that the wealthy get a different – and more lenient – justice system than the rest of us. Three-quarters of Americans polled said that Simpson would’ve been found guilty if he weren’t rich.
What does it all look like three decades later? A merciless media cycle, a public engrossed in a drama of race, class, and justice, parallel views of the same facts -- in the end, wherever you were when you saw OJ Simpson fleeing the police, trying on those gloves, or swearing that he “would not, could not, and did not kill anyone,” we are all, in a sense, still living in the world that OJ left us.
Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, DC, shares his perspective on US politics.
This is what we are watching in US Politics this week: Trump's trials.
Former President Trump faces or faced six civil or criminal actions against him in 2024, an election year. Two of which, civil finds that he was already found liable for. He's had to pay significant sums of money. Two of which, a case in Georgia and one in Florida, are very unlikely to start in this year, and one of which could start later this summer, this federal trial against Trump for election interference in Washington, DC. The final trial is set to begin next week. A trial in Manhattan for business records frauds related to hush money payments he made to a woman he was having an affair with before the 2016 election.
The key witness in this trial is Michael Cohen, Trump's former attorney, who Trump's going to try to discredit the testimony of by saying, “He's a liar, he's out for publicity. But the evidence against Trump is pretty damning here. There's almost no, it sure looks like he committed this crime. However, the allegations will have to be proven in court. Trump could win this case and the jury could decide to throw out the corroborating evidence. There's a lot of ways this could still go in Trump's favor. And if it does, that will be a significant win for Trump, because a significant portion of the electorate is telling pollsters today that if Trump is found guilty of a crime before the election, they would be less likely to vote for him.
Trump support drops by about ten percentage points in a New York Times poll from earlier in the year, based on whether or not he's found guilty. And these are really high stakes, drama for Trump. One of the key political inoculates Trump has is that the trial could be over quickly. He also is going to make the case that this is a politically motivated witch hunt and that Alvin Bragg, the Manhattan DA, is out to get him and stop him and undermine him because he's a Democrat. That message is certainly resonating with Republicans. The key question for Trump's election campaign is, “Does that message resonate with independents, or do they continue to see the criminal charges against Trump as being disqualifying?”
The trial starts next week. We'll find out what happens.
An organizer carries a clipboard with petitions for a ballot initiative to enshrine abortion into the Arizona state constitution during a small rally led by Women's March Tucson after Arizona's Supreme Court revived a law dating to 1864 that bans abortion in virtually all instances, in Tucson, Arizona, U.S. April 9, 2024.
On Wednesday, Arizona Republicans blocked attempts by Democrats to repeal an 1864 total abortion ban that the state’s supreme court reinstated on Tuesday. The court’s move means the state must revert to the 123-year-old law making abortions almost entirely illegal except when it is necessary to save a pregnant person’s life.
That ruling came a week after a pro-choice group obtained enough signatures to put an amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution on the ballot in November – all but ensuring that abortion, a major motivating issue for Democratic voters, will play a big role in how the swing state votes later this year.
It is also having political fallout beyond the Grand Canyon State with Democrats wasting no time rallying opposition to abortion restrictions. Polling shows it is an effective issue for Democrats, particularly among young voters, with whom Joe Biden has struggled to connect.
In the upcoming, razor-close election against Trump, the struggle for battleground states that will allow the winner to carry the electoral college is intense. Abortion ballot initiatives could give the Democrats a boost in the presidential election and down-ballot races, since it may drive turnout. The issue is largely credited for helping the Democrats outperform in the 2022 midterms.
Abortion will likely be on the ballot in the battleground states of Arizona and Florida. Voters in blue states New York and Maryland will also have the opportunity to vote on abortion initiatives, and Democrats are trying to get it on the ballot elsewhere, including Nevada, which is seen as a crucial swing state.
Like the dog that caught the car, Republicans now look to be in disarray on the issue, trapped between wanting to take credit for restricting abortion and fears of alienating moderates and not wanting to fuel Democratic momentum on the issue. Trump, who likes to take credit for the Supreme Court appointments that ended Roe v. Wade, now seems to sense his vulnerability on this issue. He said Wednesday he would not sign a national abortion ban, preferring to leave the matter to the states.
It’s an issue that may gain salience north of the border, where abortion rights advocates can be expected to warn against Conservative plans for Canada during the election to come.The moon blotted out the sun across much of North America on Monday, but it did not put politics entirely out of mind.
Conservatives on both sides of the border used the occasion to compare their champion to the moon, blotting out the incumbent sun, while incumbents merely marveled at the moment.
In the United States, Donald Trump released an odd ad on his Truth Social network in which his face blotted out the sun. In Canada, Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre just posted a photo of the moment, but one of his MPs posted an image showing a smiling Poilievre eclipsing Trudeau.
Meanwhile, Fox News issued a warning that the eclipse might make it easier for migrants to cross into the United States.
Justin Trudeau posted a video of himself taking in the sight from the roof of his office while Joe Biden posted a safety warning, a subtle reminder, perhaps, of the time, in 2017, when Trump gazed directly into an eclipse, which is said to be unwise.The Arizona for Abortion Access news conference at the law offices of Coppersmith Brockelman in Phoenix.
The court rejected arguments that it should uphold the 15-week ban the state has followed since the fall of Roe v. Wade in 2022, instead deciding to uphold a more restrictive law passed before Arizona was even a state. When it goes into effect in 15 days, abortion will be a felony punishable by two to five years in prison for anyone who performs or helps a woman obtain one. It makes no exceptions for instances of rape or incest.
It comes a week after a pro-choice group obtained enough signatures last week to put an amendment to enshrine abortion rights in the state’s constitution on the ballot in November. This all but ensures that abortion – a major motivating issue for Democratic voters – will play a big role in how the swing state votes in 2024.
Republican presidential candidate and former U.S. President Donald Trump gives a statement on abortion policy, in this screengrab obtained from a video released on April 8, 2024.
Trump’s status-quo position is unlikely to appease the pro-lifers in his party who want national restrictions. But the former president is betting that his appointment of the three justices who overturned the constitutional right to an abortion is enough to keep them on his side.
Reactions from pro-life groups have been mixed. The president of Susan B. Anthony Pro-Life America, Marjorie Dannenfelser, said the organization was “deeply disappointed.” Students for Life of Action, meanwhile, made it clear they’re sticking by Trump but hoping he pursues a more restrictive approach to abortion in the future.
Trump’s move is unlikely to quell the Democratic Party’s advantage from high turnout in states where abortion is on the ballot. The left’s strategy is to amplify stories of women who have been harmed by Republican abortion policies, with the Biden campaign releasing an emotional video testimony hours after Trump’s announcement dropped.
President Joe Biden, meanwhile, accused Trump of sowing “cruelty” and “chaos” around the abortion debate because of his role in the Dobbs decision.
Abortion referendums will be on the ballot in at least a few swing states – Florida is confirmed, and Arizona and Nevada are likely – creating a massive weakness for Republicans that Trump’s call for abortion to be left to the states will do nothing to mitigate.Latest
Dems push on hot-button election issues
OJ Simpson had the “Trial of the Century.” Our Century.
Trump's NYC hush-money trial: What to watch for
High stakes in Arizona abortion ban
Totality fails to eclipse politics
Arizona courts order near-total abortion ban
Trump embraces status-quo on abortion
