What we are watching: Power in Sudan, Racial Tensions in Israel, Troubles in Turkey

What we are watching: Power in Sudan, Racial Tensions in Israel, Troubles in Turkey

The fate of Sudan's power-sharing deal — Sudanese opposition protesters have reached a power-sharing agreement with the military under which the two sides will create a "sovereign council" to be headed by the military for 21 months, followed by 18 months of civilian leadership ahead of fresh elections. In addition, the two sides have pledged a full investigation of the military's deadly crackdown on protesters in June. It remains to be seen whether that's truly possible, given that the killings were carried out by forces loyal to General Mohamed Hamdan, currently the most powerful figure in Sudan. In addition, the protesters seem to have made a big concession by allowing the military to run the council first — but in the end, they have the problem that all civilian popular revolutions must face: you need men with guns to run a state — who will they be?

Racial and generational tensions in Israel — Last week, an off-duty cop killed an unarmed Ethiopian Jewish teenager under unclear circumstances, prompting riots and protests among Israel's small, marginalized community of Ethiopian Jews. The back story is that tens of thousands of Ethiopian Jews were airlifted to Israel in the 1980s, escaping famine and political repression at home. But while that first generation of immigrants remained stoic in the face of what its leaders describe as discrimination and racism, their children are much more willing to confront these issues head on, opening another fault line in Israel's increasingly polarized society.

Erdogan's Troubles — Troubles for Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdogan have only deepened since his man lost the Istanbul mayor's election…twice. Early Saturday morning, Erdogan fired central bank governor Murat Cetinkaya because he refused to lower interest rates in order to give Erdogan's political standing a boost with a short-term surge of economic growth. The move in the wee hours on a weekend was evidently meant to give investors time to digest the news before they reacted. But when markets opened Monday, the Turkish lira dropped like a stone, further devaluing the money that Turks carry in their pockets. Later on Monday, Erdogan suffered a second blow as former Turkish deputy prime minister Ali Babacan announced his resignation from Erdogan's Justice and Development Party over "deep differences" with the party's direction. He's now expected to form a rival party with former president Abdullah Gul.

A new politics in Greece — What challenges await the center-right New Democracy party after it rang up a resounding victory in Sunday's election? Check out Leon Levy's take here, and our interview with incoming prime minister Kyriakos Mitsotakos here. "If there's a bigger lesson for the world to take away from Greek elections this Sunday," Leon writes, "it's this: even populist movements run out of steam."

What we are ignoring:

Russia's explanation of a deadly sub mishap – Last week, 14 Russian sailors perished in a fire aboard a submarine that Moscow says was carrying out a survey of the sea floor. Russian President Vladimir Putin later revealed the sub was nuclear powered and, although the reactor is reportedly safe, an anonymous military official was quoted in the local press saying that the valiant efforts of the crew had saved the ship and "averted a catastrophe of planetary scale." Our sympathies are with the dead and their families, but there's no way we're buying the official line that this secretive, high-tech sub was innocently exploring the ocean depths for science.

This time last year, world health experts were speculating about why Africa appeared to have escaped the worst of the global pandemic. Younger populations? Natural immunity created by exposure to past viruses? Something else?

They can stop wondering. Africa is now in the grip of a COVID emergency.

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Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi barred two Republican members from serving on the Jan. 6 commission. What's going on?

Well, the Jan. 6 commission was designed to be a bipartisan commission, taking input from members from Democrats and Republicans. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had the opportunity to make recommendations but the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could always veto those recommendations. In this case, she did, saying no to two members, Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, both of whom are strongly aligned with President Trump and who voted against certifying the election results in 2020. The Republicans for the most part see the Jan. 6 commission as an opportunity to score political points against them, and the Democrats say this is going to be a fair, non-biased, and nonpartisan investigation into what happened on Jan. 6, starting with a hearing next week with some of the police officers who were involved in the battle with the protesters inside the Capitol.

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In his New York Times op-ed, David Brooks says the US is facing an identity crisis — protecting liberal and progressive values at home while doing little to stop autocrats elsewhere. But has the US really abandoned its values abroad just because it's withdrawing from Afghanistan? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analyst Charles Dunst take out the Red Pen to argue that the US can advance democracy without being the world's sheriff.

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When the Tokyo Olympics begin on Friday, Japan watchers will be following more than just the performance of Japan's star athletes, including tennis star Naomi Osaka. They will also be tracking the political fortunes of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who is taking a big gamble by staging the event — amid a raging pandemic — in the face of strong and longstanding opposition from the Japanese public. What are the stakes for Suga, particularly with elections on the horizon? Eurasia Group senior analyst Ali Wyne explains.

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YouTube pulls Bolsonaro's rants: Google-owned YouTube pulled down a series of videos on the channel of Brazil's populist President Jair Bolsonaro, accusing him of spreading misinformation about the pandemic. YouTube removed more than a dozen clips for touting quack cures for coronavirus or claiming, in defiance of scientific experts, that masks don't reduce COVID transmissions. Last year, Twitter and Facebook also removed some content from Bolsonaro's feeds for similar reasons. But critics say that YouTube's move is too little too late, because Bolsonaro has been spreading misinformation about COVID since the pandemic began. Many Brazilians hold him personally responsible for the country's abysmal pandemic response, which has led to almost 550,000 deaths, the second worst toll in the world. Will YouTube's move change Bolsonaro's message? His weekly address to the nation, where he converses not only with government ministers but also various conspiracy theorists and loons, is broadcast on YouTube. Surely he doesn't want to risk losing that — or does he?

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Boycotts! Bans! Protests! Drugs! Think you've got gold medal knowledge about politics at the Olympics? Test what you know with this special Tokyo Olympics Quiz. And to stay current on all the latest political stories at the Games and around the world, subscribe here to Signal, our daily newsletter. Now, without further ado, the first question is...

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28: The UK and the EU have again failed to agree on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. In a 28-page document, the British government had suggested further changes to trade rules that were already negotiated as part of the Brexit settlement, but Brussels was not having any of it.

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