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What We Are Watching & What We Are Ignoring

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WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

DR Congo Election results – When results of Sunday's presidential election are announced, Joseph Kabila's 17-year rule will come to an end. This is supposed to be the strife-torn country's first-ever orderly transfer of power. Maybe. But there are charges of voting irregularity and reports that opposition TV and radio stations have been pushed off the air.



China and Taiwan China's President Xi Jinping warned during a tough speech this week that "reunification" of China and Taiwan is inevitable and that China reserves the right to ensure that happens by any means necessary. There's no imminent risk of war here, but Xi is making clear that China will exert heavy pressure to get the outcome it wants in Taiwan's presidential election next year. There's also still a risk that Trump increases tensions by trying to use US support for Taiwan as a bargaining chip in the broader US-China conflict.

WHAT WE'RE IGNORING

The Khashoggi trial As part of efforts to shift blame for the murder of journalist Jamal Khashoggi away from Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman, 11 Saudis are now on trial for the killing. We're ignoring this story, because show trials don't have surprise endings.

The Search for Napoleon's Gold Russian historian Viacheslav Ryzhkov says Napoleon's retreating army buried tons of stolen Russian treasure under a lake near Russia's border with Belarus in 1812. After painstaking research and careful consideration, we think Ryzhkov is full of crap. If he finds any gold, we'll write an update.

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​CEO and Co-Founder of Anthropic Dario Amodei in Davos, Switzerland, on January 20, 2026.

CEO and Co-Founder of Anthropic Dario Amodei speaks during the 56th annual World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Davos, Switzerland, on January 20, 2026.

REUTERS/Denis Balibouse
One month ago, the White House made their feelings about artificial intelligence regulation clear: they didn’t want it. In its legislative framework for AI regulation, published March 20, the Trump administration took an accelerationist stance toward the burgeoning technology, aiming to largely give US companies free rein as a way to ensure they [...]
​A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska from USS Spruance (DDG 111) in a location given as the north Arabian Sea, in this screen capture from a video released on April 19, 2026.

A view of Iranian-flagged cargo ship Touska as USS Spruance (DDG 111) conducts its interception in a location given as the north Arabian Sea, in this screen capture from a video released on April 19, 2026.

CENTCOM/Handout via REUTERS
Washington’s blockade expands to AsiaThe US Navy isn’t just intercepting Iranian-linked ships outside the Strait of Hormuz. In recent days, it redirected a trio of ships that were passing in Asian waters, per Reuters. One of the ships was reportedly carrying 2 million barrels of Iranian oil, and had been scheduled to discharge the crude in India. [...]
Hard number: Iran war elevates Panama Canal costs
Natalie Johnson
Costs for ships to pass through the Panama Canal have hit record highs as the Iran war imperils global oil shipping. According to data from Argus Media, daily auctions to cross the waterway have drawn five times as many bids than prior to the conflict. There’s also been a surge of US oil and fuel shipments through the canal, primarily coming from [...]
The US Senate is suddenly in play
The prevailing view a few months ago was that Democrats were likely to retake the House of Representatives in November's midterm elections. In recent decades, these cycles have tended to cut against the party in control of the White House, and Republicans held a razor-thin House majority in a political environment that was already tilting blue.The [...]