What We’re Watching: Europe vs Iran

What We’re Watching: Europe vs Iran

Another escalation between the West and Iran – On Tuesday, France, Germany, and the UK formally opened the process, provided for in the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, that could re-impose UN sanctions on the Islamic Republic. The deal to freeze Iran's nuclear program has been on life support since the US withdrew from it in May 2018 and slapped unilateral sanctions on Tehran. The Europeans had been working to keep the deal alive, even as Iran expanded its uranium enrichment activities in response to mounting financial pressure from Washington. But after the US drone attack that killed Iranian Quds Force leader Qassim Suleimani last week, Tehran said it would no longer observe any limits to its nuclear program. Now the Europeans are saying that, though they regret the US withdrawal from the deal, they also can no longer ignore Iran's non-compliance. France, Germany, and the UK can extend this process indefinitely to prevent UN sanctions from coming into force. So, the main impact of the move, for now, will be to pressure Iran to come back to the negotiating table. We're watching for Tehran's next move.


France's Sahel summit – At a summit held Monday with West and Central African leaders, France's President Emmanuel Macron pledged to boost the French military presence in the Sahel region, adding an additional 220 troops to the 4,500 already there. The French military presence in the Sahel, a vast semi-arid area stretching across the southern edge of the Sahara Desert, began in 2013 in response to a surge of attacks in Mali by Islamist groups that has since spilled over into the Sahel. However, local African leaders have also had to grapple with the disapproval of communities unhappy with the presence of the former colonial power. Protestors – many inspired by Islamist clerics – have been demonstrating against the French military presence, prompting threats from Macron of a French troop withdrawal. As the recruiting power of local and foreign jihadist groups continues to grow, the threats to the region's people, and beyond, are quickly rising. (See our explainer here on how terrorism came to ravage the Sahel region).

Health challenges of the next decade – The World Health Organization (WHO) – the United Nations' top public health body – has released a list of the most pressing global health challenges that will shape the coming decade. Chief among them, according to WHO, is the climate crisis: "Air pollution kills an estimated 7 million people every year, while climate change causes more extreme weather events, exacerbates malnutrition and fuels the spread of infectious diseases such as malaria." Delivering healthcare in conflict zones and investing in healthcare workers and resources are also listed as health challenges worthy of greater public attention. Responding to the surging death toll from a measles outbreak in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, WHO recently issued a stern statement that said lack of funding is "a huge impediment" to disease containment; it asked countries around the world to fork out a collective $40 million over six months to implement elements of the outbreak response.

What We're Ignoring

Birthday greetings from President Trump – North Korea confirmed over the weekend that its leader, Kim Jong-un, had received a letter from President Trump wishing him a happy birthday. But it promptly shot down any hopes that the friendly gesture and Chairman Kim's "good personal feelings" about the US leader would help jumpstart stalled nuclear talks between the two countries. We're also ignoring Trump's birthday greetings, because we're pretty sure that when it comes to the 37-year-old Korean dictator's feelings about holding onto his nukes, the recent US assassination of Iran's second-most powerful man sent a much stronger message.

Demography is destiny. That ominous-sounding pronouncement, credited to French philosopher Auguste Comte, is today taken to mean that a nation's fate depends on the youthfulness of its population. For a poor country to become rich, it needs lots of young people ready to work, to support those too old or too young to work, and to pay taxes. This is called the "demographic dividend."

That's an important part of China's success story. Over the past 40 years, more than one billion people have emerged from poverty in China. Waves of young people surged from the countryside into cities to work in factories. The state invested in education, and wages helped young workers, and then their children, go to school. The state also began a drive to develop the technologies of the future, by any means necessary. In China, once dirt-poor, hundreds of millions have created a middle class.

More Show less

Get insights on the latest news about emerging trends in cyberspace from Marietje Schaake, International Policy Director at Stanford University's Cyber Policy Center and former European Parliamentarian:

This week we talk about one of my favorite topics, regulation. Laws are often framed as a barrier to innovation and not always recognized as a key enabler of freedoms and the protection of rights. But what's more is that regulation is a process, and one that can have tons of different outcomes. So, being in favor or against regulation doesn't mean anything. Except that those who oppose any changes are apparently benefiting from the status quo.

Is the world at a tipping point when it comes to regulating big tech?

And I would say absolutely. The outsized power of big tech is recognized more broadly because the harms are so blatantly clear. Harms to democracy, public health, but also to fairness in the economy are all related to the outsized power of unaccountable and under-regulated big tech. Now, what's significant is that this debate has finally hit home in the United States after it was already recognized as a problem in many other parts of the world.

More Show less

Do we spend too much time thinking about our own carbon footprints and not enough time thinking about bigger factors? Climate journalist Elizabeth Kolbert acknowledges it's necessary for individuals to make changes in the way they live, but that isn't the number one priority.

"What would you do to try to move this battleship in a new direction? It requires public policy levers. And it requires … some pretty serious legislation." Ian Bremmer spoke with Kolbert, an award-winning journalist and author and staff writer at The New Yorker, on a new episode of GZERO World, airing on US public television.

Watch the episode: Can We Fix the Planet the Same Way We Broke It?

Not everyone thinks that President Biden's decision to pull all US troops out of Afghanistan by 9/11/21 is a good idea. Conservative Congressman Mike Waltz (R-FL), a combat-decorated Green Beret with multiple tours in Afghanistan, thinks that the US still needs to maintain a small presence in the country to avoid incurring "massive risks." In a spirited discussion with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, Waltz, who served as counterterrorism advisor in the George W. Bush administration, argues, "The next 9/11, the next Pulse Night Club, which is right on the edge of my congressional district, the next San Bernardino, that's now on Biden's watch. He owns it with this decision." Their conversation is featured in the upcoming episode of GZERO World, which airs on US public television starting Friday, April 23. Check local listings.

Vaccines are the best hope to end the COVID-19 pandemic. But rich countries are hogging most of the doses, with more than 83 percent of shots administered to date having gone to residents in high- and upper-middle-income countries. Most poor countries will have to wait years to achieve widespread vaccination, according to one study.

To address this inequity some stakeholders are pushing hard for waivers to intellectual-property (IP) rights through World Trade Organization trade rules so that manufacturers in poorer countries can make their own vaccines locally. India and South Africa have been leading the charge, which would essentially mean that deep-pocketed pharma companies like New York-based Pfizer, for instance, would have to hand over the keys to the kingdom, allowing local companies in New Delhi and Johannesberg to make generic versions of their vaccines.

Unsurprisingly, the debate has gotten fiery, with passionate arguments emerging both for and against.

More Show less

Carl Bildt, former Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden, shares his perspective on Europe In 60 Seconds:

What are the Russians up to against Ukraine?

We simply don't know, except the fact that they're concentrating a huge amount of military forces. And you don't do that for nothing or for fun. They are there for a purpose, to have pressure or to undertake limited to larger operations. We simply don't know. And when Putin delivered his State of the Union speech the other day, he didn't say a thing about this. They are now talking about withdrawing the forces. But let's wait and see. They have talked about withdrawing forces from Syria for a long time, but we haven't seen that as of yet.

More Show less

Australia rips up Belt & Road deal: Australia cancelled two 2018 deals signed between Victoria, Australia's wealthiest state, and the Chinese government, that committed the two sides to working together on initiatives under China's Belt and Road infrastructure development program. Foreign Minister Marise Payne said that the agreements "were adverse to our foreign relations." Similar deals between Victoria and institutions in Iran and Syria were also abandoned by the Australian government this week, under a 2020 law that allows Canberra to nullify international agreements struck at local and state level. (Australian universities say the "foreign veto bill" amounts to "significant overreach.") Meanwhile, Beijing hit back, calling the move "unreasonable and provocative," and accusing Canberra of further stoking divisions after a series of escalatory moves by both sides that have seen China-Australia relations deteriorate to their worst point in decades. Chinese investment in Australia dropped by 62 percent last year, a massive blow for Australia's export-reliant economy.

More Show less

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal