What We’re Watching: Gulf Explosions, BoJo’s Mojo, Haiti Protests

More trouble brewing in the Strait of Hormuz Two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman yesterday, and their crews had to be rescued by Iranian and US naval vessels. This follows attacks on four tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates last month. Washington blames Iran, but Tehran — which earlier this week issued vague threats against the US — says the timing is "suspicious." After all, one of the tankers attacked Thursday was Japanese-owned — would Iran hit the vessel right as Japan's prime minister was in Iran on a mission to ease US-Iran tensions? We're watching to see if the temperature rises further between Washington (and its Gulf Arab allies) and Tehran, but we're also watching the gas pump: 20% of the world's traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day.

Boris Johnson — Former UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson on Thursday topped the first official ballot of Tory MPs in the race to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May. Boris received 114 votes and more than twice as many as the next-closest contender in a crowded field. The results make him a virtual shoe-in to become the next PM in a final vote by 124,000 rank-and-file Conservative party members later this month. Less certain is whether the former London mayor and media personality, whose late-breaking support for Brexit may have played a role in the UK's vote to leave the EU in 2016, can do any better than May in securing a Brexit deal that's acceptable to Parliament.

Protests in Haiti — The Caribbean Island nation has been paralyzed for days by fresh protests demanding the resignation of President Jovenel Moise, whom a government audit has implicated in the misappropriation of millions dollars earmarked for poverty alleviation. But wait… the plot thickens: the money was part of a Venezuelan regional development program in which Caracas allowed Caribbean nations to defer payments on Venezuelan oil imports so they could free up more cash for economic development. Haiti is one of the Western hemisphere's poorest countries. Moise says he has done nothing wrong and that he will be vindicated by a further investigation: we are watching to see if the streets believe him.

What We Are Ignoring

AMLO, Used Plane Salesman — Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced this week he will sell the luxurious presidential plane he inherited from his predecessor, and direct the cash towards plans to reduce the flow of US-bound migrants that pass through his country. We certainly can't deny that it's a cool plane: a sumptuously appointed Boeing 787 Dreamliner that AMLO says he can get $150 million for. But it'll take a lot more than that to address the problem of desperate Central Americans trying to reach the US border. What's more, AMLO had already promised to sell this plane to help poor people in Mexico. As "man of the people" gestures go, this one sends some oddly mixed messages.

Every day thousands of people legally cross back and forth between El Paso, Texas, and Ciudad Juárez, Mexico, on their way to jobs, schools, doctor's appointments, shopping centers and the homes of family and friends. This harmonious exchange has taken place for more than 400 years, uniting neighbors through shared social ties, geography, history and, most importantly, an interlinked economy.

Beyond the people and goods, El Paso and Ciudad Juárez also converge in a cross-border flow of ideas, ambition and aspirations that have shaped the region for centuries. This forward-looking spirit is what attracted Microsoft to the region in 2017, when it launched Microsoft TechSpark to create new economic opportunities and help digitally transform established industries with modern software and cloud services. It's also why Microsoft announced on Monday that it is expanding the TechSpark El Paso program to include Ciudad Juárez and making a $1.5 million investment in the binational Bridge Accelerator. Read more about the TechSpark announcement here.

Foreign policy played a bigger role in last night's Democratic presidential debate than in previous ones, in part because of events that came on the heels of President Trump's surprise, and disastrous, withdrawal of US troops from northern Syria. Some candidates used the opportunity to play up their foreign policy bona fides, but not all of their punches landed cleanly. Here are some key takeaways.

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Will there be agreement, and will negotiations carry on if there is no agreement in the EU?

Lord William Hague: Well, they won't carry on if there is no agreement at the European Council in the next few days. But in the EU, while you always think of things going to the last minute, in fact they usually go beyond the last minute. And that could happen in this case where there could be political agreement, agreement in principle to a Brexit deal. But they'd have to have another European Council, and more detail hammering out the actual text of it before another summit on the 28th of October, which would mean some extension to Brexit.

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Since Syria's brutal civil war began eight years ago, millions of Syrians have fled their country to escape the bombs and bullets. But hundreds of thousands have been displaced within Syria's borders, where they languish in packed refugee camps. The al-Hol camp in northern Syria is sprawling, and of its nearly 70,000 residents, some 11,000 are family members of foreign ISIS fighters, according to the UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights. The surprise American withdrawal from northern Syria last week paved the way for Turkey and Syria's Bashar al-Assad to move in. Some 160,000 civilians have now fled the border region that Turkey is bombarding, deepening a humanitarian crisis in a stretch of Syria that had been relatively secure since the defeat of ISIS's self-declared caliphate back in March. Here's a look at the camps for displaced people in the area.

Mozambique's democracy test Mozambicans voted yesterday in an election that will test a fragile peace accord between the ruling Frelimo party, led by president Filipe Nyusi, and Renamo, a former rebel group-turned-opposition party. The two factions were on opposite sides of a Cold War-tinged civil war that killed an estimated 1 million people between 1977 and 1992. Frelimo, which has ruled Mozambique since independence, has been losing popularity due to a corruption scandal, but is likely to hold onto power at the national level. Renamo, which foreswore violence just two months ago in exchange for electoral reforms that will help the party, will be hoping to make regional gains that allow it to win some key governorships. Disputes over the final vote count and even outright fraud or violence are possible in coming days, particularly if Renamo fails to make its hoped-for gains.

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