What We’re Watching: Gulf Explosions, BoJo’s Mojo, Haiti Protests

What We’re Watching: Gulf Explosions, BoJo’s Mojo, Haiti Protests

More trouble brewing in the Strait of Hormuz Two oil tankers were attacked in the Gulf of Oman yesterday, and their crews had to be rescued by Iranian and US naval vessels. This follows attacks on four tankers off the coast of the United Arab Emirates last month. Washington blames Iran, but Tehran — which earlier this week issued vague threats against the US — says the timing is "suspicious." After all, one of the tankers attacked Thursday was Japanese-owned — would Iran hit the vessel right as Japan's prime minister was in Iran on a mission to ease US-Iran tensions? We're watching to see if the temperature rises further between Washington (and its Gulf Arab allies) and Tehran, but we're also watching the gas pump: 20% of the world's traded oil passes through the Strait of Hormuz every day.

Boris Johnson — Former UK foreign secretary Boris Johnson on Thursday topped the first official ballot of Tory MPs in the race to succeed outgoing Prime Minister Theresa May. Boris received 114 votes and more than twice as many as the next-closest contender in a crowded field. The results make him a virtual shoe-in to become the next PM in a final vote by 124,000 rank-and-file Conservative party members later this month. Less certain is whether the former London mayor and media personality, whose late-breaking support for Brexit may have played a role in the UK's vote to leave the EU in 2016, can do any better than May in securing a Brexit deal that's acceptable to Parliament.

Protests in Haiti — The Caribbean Island nation has been paralyzed for days by fresh protests demanding the resignation of President Jovenel Moise, whom a government audit has implicated in the misappropriation of millions dollars earmarked for poverty alleviation. But wait… the plot thickens: the money was part of a Venezuelan regional development program in which Caracas allowed Caribbean nations to defer payments on Venezuelan oil imports so they could free up more cash for economic development. Haiti is one of the Western hemisphere's poorest countries. Moise says he has done nothing wrong and that he will be vindicated by a further investigation: we are watching to see if the streets believe him.

What We Are Ignoring

AMLO, Used Plane Salesman — Mexico's President Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador announced this week he will sell the luxurious presidential plane he inherited from his predecessor, and direct the cash towards plans to reduce the flow of US-bound migrants that pass through his country. We certainly can't deny that it's a cool plane: a sumptuously appointed Boeing 787 Dreamliner that AMLO says he can get $150 million for. But it'll take a lot more than that to address the problem of desperate Central Americans trying to reach the US border. What's more, AMLO had already promised to sell this plane to help poor people in Mexico. As "man of the people" gestures go, this one sends some oddly mixed messages.

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Australian Open - First Round - Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia - January 21, 2020 China's Peng Shuai in action during the match against Japan's Nao Hibino

The Women’s Tennis Association this week decided to suspend all tournaments in China, over doubts that the country’s star player Peng Shuai is safe and sound. Peng recently disappeared for three weeks after accusing a former Vice Premier of sexual assault. Although she has since resurfaced, telling the International Olympic Committee that she’s fine and just wants a little privacy, there are still concerns that Peng has been subjected to intimidation by the Chinese state.

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What We're Watching: Angela Merkel's punk rock farewell, Iran nuclear talks resume

Angela Merkel's punk rock farewell. Although she doesn't officially step down as German Chancellor until next week, Angela Merkel's sendoff took place on Thursday night in Berlin, with the traditional Grosser Zapfenstreich — a musical aufweidersehen, replete with torches and a military band. By custom, the honoree gets to choose three songs for the band to play. Among Merkel's otherwise staid choices was a total curveball: You Forgot the Colour Film, a 1974 rock hit by fellow East German Nina Hagen, a renowned punk rocker. The song, a parody bit about a man who takes the singer on vacation but has only black-and-white film in his camera, was understood as a dig at the drabness of life in the East. We're listening to the tune, and... digging it, kind of — but we still prefer Merkel's own Kraftwerk-inspired farewell song from Puppet Regime. Eins, zwei, drei, it's time to say goodbye...

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World leaders at the G20 Summit in Rome, October 2021

This week, the World Health Organization’s governing body agreed to begin multinational negotiations on an agreement that would boost global preparedness to deal with future pandemics. The WHO hopes that its 194 member countries will sign a treaty that helps ensure that the global response to the next pandemic is better coordinated and fairer.

The specifics remain to be negotiated over the coming months – and maybe longer – but the stated goal of those who back this plan is a treaty that will commit member countries to share information, virus samples, and new technologies, and to ensure that poorer countries have much better access than they do now to vaccines and related technologies.

Crucially, backers of the treaty insist it must be “legally binding.”

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Abortion rights and anti-abortion demonstrators hold signs outside the U.S. Supreme Court while the court holds a hearing on a Mississippi abortion ban, in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, December 1, 2021.

On Wednesday the Supreme Court began hearing arguments on an issue that has had Americans fighting — and in some cases killing — each other for 50 years: abortion.

The court must decide whether a recent Mississippi state law that prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy is legal and, more broadly, whether it runs counter to the Roe v Wade Supreme Court decision of 1973.

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Coronavirus in Deutschland - Covid-19-Dashboard des Robert Koch-Institut 01.12.2021:

67,186: Germany announced Thursday that people who remain unvaccinated against COVID-19 will be subject to new restrictions, including being unable to enter stores and gather in large groups. This comes as Germany recorded 67,186 new cases Thursday, hundreds more than the previous day, according to the Robert Koch Institute. Hospitals are filling up and Chancellor-designate Olaf Scholz, who comes into office next week, says he would support broad vaccine mandates.

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S2 Episode 7: Why biodiversity loss matters to governments and investors


Listen: Are global leaders finally taking needed action on environmental issues? Coming out of the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, we've seen governments agree to a certain set of policies to fight climate change. But that isn't the only urgent environmental issue we face. The twin problem of climate change AND biodiversity loss are a serious threat to not just governments, but also investors.

The latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a special podcast series from GZERO brought to you by Citi Private Bank, looks at how important biodiversity is to the global economy, and what leaders need to do to prevent further loss. Moderated by Caitlin Dean, Head of the Geostrategy Practice at Eurasia Group, this episode features Anita McBain, Managing Director at Citi Research, heading EMEA ESG Research; Harlin Singh, Global Head of Sustainable Investing at Citi Global Wealth; and Mikaela McQuade, Director of Energy, Climate and Resources at Eurasia Group.

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The Graphic Truth: Abortion laws around the world

While the debate over fetal rights vs a woman’s right to choose is particularly ferocious in the US, it’s also a divisive issue in many parts of the world, particularly in countries where the Catholic Church holds influence. We take a look at abortion laws globally, as well as countries with the highest and lowest official abortion rates.

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