What we’re Watching: Trump's Warring Impulses on Iran

What we’re Watching: Trump's Warring Impulses on Iran

War With Iran Or...Not? — On Thursday, Iran shot down a US drone over the Persian Gulf. Tehran says the craft was in its airspace, while Trump says it was over international waters and that Iran made a "big mistake" (though he also said he thought it was not "intentional"). This is the latest provocation in a tense situation between the US and Iran, and Trump seems to have competing impulses here. On the one hand, he needs to appear tough on Iran and has hinted that there will be a response. But on the other, as he stressed to the press on Thursday, he campaigned in 2016 on getting the US out of "endless" foreign military entanglements. We are watching to see not only how he squares that circle in response to the drone hit, but how he balances these impulses more broadly as he seeks re-election. In fact, reports emerged this morning that Trump had abruptly called off a pre-dawn plan to hit Iranian missile and radar sites. It's unclear if this was due to a change of heart or a logistical complication. But that giant thudding sound you hear? It's National Security Adviser John Bolton, who's been spoiling for an Iran strike for years, banging his head and mustache against the wall. So close!

Putin's Puffed-up Poll Numbers — Earlier this month, Kremlin-backed polling agency VTsIOM asked Russians which politicians they trusted. Putin scored just over 30%. The Kremlin wasn't happy about it and just five days later, VTsIOM altered the question to ask whether respondents trusted Putin or not — his new score was 72.3%. Neat trick! But Putin's broader approval ratings, as measured by independent pollster Levada, have fallen sharply since his re-election for a fourth term, and especially after the government introduced a pension reform plan that sparked protests across the country. Putin tried to reassure his people yesterday during his annual live call-in show, but we're watching to see if the trend continues and what Putin, now nearing 20 years in power, can do about it.

What We're Ignoring

Nigeria's Cash-Quaffing Wildlife — Somebody owes the gorillas of Nigeria's Kano state a serious apology. Some of the gate fees recently went missing from the Kano Zoo and local media reported that the money — 6.8 million naira or about $22,000 — had been eaten by a hungry gorilla. Abdullahi Ganduje, Kano state governor, pointed out that the zoo has no gorilla and has reported the matter to local anticorruption authorities. The news comes just weeks after a woman in Benue state claimed that $100,000 trusted to her care had been eaten by a snake. We are ignoring these incidents because given the level of local corruption, cash is still much more likely to disappear into the pockets of real officials than into the mouths of phantom animals.

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As the private sector innovates aid and financing, seeking holistic solutions to neighborhood challenges is the cornerstone of the approach.

Businesses, which rely on healthy communities for their own prosperity, must play a big part in driving solutions.

See why.

Australian Open - First Round - Melbourne Park, Melbourne, Australia - January 21, 2020 China's Peng Shuai in action during the match against Japan's Nao Hibino

The Women’s Tennis Association this week decided to suspend all tournaments in China, over doubts that the country’s star player Peng Shuai is safe and sound. Peng recently disappeared for three weeks after accusing a former Vice Premier of sexual assault. Although she has since resurfaced, telling the International Olympic Committee that she’s fine and just wants a little privacy, there are still concerns that Peng has been subjected to intimidation by the Chinese state.

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What We're Watching: Angela Merkel's punk rock farewell, Iran nuclear talks resume

Angela Merkel's punk rock farewell. Although she doesn't officially step down as German Chancellor until next week, Angela Merkel's sendoff took place on Thursday night in Berlin, with the traditional Grosser Zapfenstreich — a musical aufweidersehen, replete with torches and a military band. By custom, the honoree gets to choose three songs for the band to play. Among Merkel's otherwise staid choices was a total curveball: You Forgot the Colour Film, a 1974 rock hit by fellow East German Nina Hagen, a renowned punk rocker. The song, a parody bit about a man who takes the singer on vacation but has only black-and-white film in his camera, was understood as a dig at the drabness of life in the East. We're listening to the tune, and... digging it, kind of — but we still prefer Merkel's own Kraftwerk-inspired farewell song from Puppet Regime. Eins, zwei, drei, it's time to say goodbye...

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World leaders at the G20 Summit in Rome, October 2021

This week, the World Health Organization’s governing body agreed to begin multinational negotiations on an agreement that would boost global preparedness to deal with future pandemics. The WHO hopes that its 194 member countries will sign a treaty that helps ensure that the global response to the next pandemic is better coordinated and fairer.

The specifics remain to be negotiated over the coming months – and maybe longer – but the stated goal of those who back this plan is a treaty that will commit member countries to share information, virus samples, and new technologies, and to ensure that poorer countries have much better access than they do now to vaccines and related technologies.

Crucially, backers of the treaty insist it must be “legally binding.”

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Abortion rights and anti-abortion demonstrators hold signs outside the U.S. Supreme Court while the court holds a hearing on a Mississippi abortion ban, in Washington, D.C., on Wednesday, December 1, 2021.

On Wednesday the Supreme Court began hearing arguments on an issue that has had Americans fighting — and in some cases killing — each other for 50 years: abortion.

The court must decide whether a recent Mississippi state law that prohibits abortion after 15 weeks of pregnancy is legal and, more broadly, whether it runs counter to the Roe v Wade Supreme Court decision of 1973.

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Coronavirus in Deutschland - Covid-19-Dashboard des Robert Koch-Institut 01.12.2021:

67,186: Germany announced Thursday that people who remain unvaccinated against COVID-19 will be subject to new restrictions, including being unable to enter stores and gather in large groups. This comes as Germany recorded 67,186 new cases Thursday, hundreds more than the previous day, according to the Robert Koch Institute. Hospitals are filling up and Chancellor-designate Olaf Scholz, who comes into office next week, says he would support broad vaccine mandates.

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S2 Episode 7: Why biodiversity loss matters to governments and investors


Listen: Are global leaders finally taking needed action on environmental issues? Coming out of the COP26 meeting in Glasgow, we've seen governments agree to a certain set of policies to fight climate change. But that isn't the only urgent environmental issue we face. The twin problem of climate change AND biodiversity loss are a serious threat to not just governments, but also investors.

The latest episode of Living Beyond Borders, a special podcast series from GZERO brought to you by Citi Private Bank, looks at how important biodiversity is to the global economy, and what leaders need to do to prevent further loss. Moderated by Caitlin Dean, Head of the Geostrategy Practice at Eurasia Group, this episode features Anita McBain, Managing Director at Citi Research, heading EMEA ESG Research; Harlin Singh, Global Head of Sustainable Investing at Citi Global Wealth; and Mikaela McQuade, Director of Energy, Climate and Resources at Eurasia Group.

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The Graphic Truth: Abortion laws around the world

While the debate over fetal rights vs a woman’s right to choose is particularly ferocious in the US, it’s also a divisive issue in many parts of the world, particularly in countries where the Catholic Church holds influence. We take a look at abortion laws globally, as well as countries with the highest and lowest official abortion rates.

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