What We're Watching

Chinese planes over Taiwan – On Sunday, two Chinese warplanes flying above the Taiwan Strait crossed into what Taiwan considers to be its airspace. In response, Taiwan scrambled warplanes to push the Chinese out. On Monday, Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen warned that further Chinese provocations would be met with force. On Tuesday, US National Security Advisor John Bolton tweeted a condemnation of China's action and a pledge of US "commitment" to Taiwan's security. Nobody wants a war, but accidents happen and can create dangerous confrontations from which all sides are reluctant to back down.

Theresa May's Brexit U-Turn – Sick of Brexit yet? Well, we've got news for you: embattled UK Prime Minister Theresa May said yesterday she planned to scrap her current Brexit proposal and work with the opposition Labor Party to forge a compromise. To broach such a grand bargain, though, she says the UK will need more time beyond the current April 12 deadline. So it looks like we could now be in for a few extra weeks of Brexit pain. This announcement is a big U-turn for Ms. May, who previously ruled out working with the opposition, and it means that a plan which can gain the support of a majority of parliamentarians may eventually emerge – if the EU agrees to an extension.

What We're Ignoring

Another Central Asian name-change? – Emilbek Kaptagayev, a Kyrgyz official, says Kyrgyzstan should change the name of its capital from Bishkek to Manas, the main character in a centuries-old epic poem. The purpose, according to Kaptagayev, is to prevent a future egocentric political strongman from naming it after himself. This is clearly a dig at Kazakhstan, where the capital city will soon change its name from Astana to Nursultan, in honor of retiring President Nursultan Nazarbayev. We're ignoring this story because Kyrgyz critics of the idea have rightly noted that their country has bigger problems to solve—and because common sense says changing the name once won't keep someone from changing it again.

The dark side of cryptocurrencies – Everyone knows Bitcoin and its ilk have been going through a rough patch – government crackdowns, a deflating investment bubble, and concerns about fraud have all contributed to a price crash and declining investor interest since late 2017. Now it turns out that even terrorists may have reason to be skeptical of the electronic money, which boosters claim will overthrow central banks and free people to transact with each other without government interference. A new report from the RAND think tank found terror groups were likely to prefer cash when buying weapons, because cryptocurrencies are harder to use and less secure than good old fashioned Benjamins.

This time last year, world health experts were speculating about why Africa appeared to have escaped the worst of the global pandemic. Younger populations? Natural immunity created by exposure to past viruses? Something else?

They can stop wondering. Africa is now in the grip of a COVID emergency.

More Show less

Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi barred two Republican members from serving on the Jan. 6 commission. What's going on?

Well, the Jan. 6 commission was designed to be a bipartisan commission, taking input from members from Democrats and Republicans. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had the opportunity to make recommendations but the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could always veto those recommendations. In this case, she did, saying no to two members, Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, both of whom are strongly aligned with President Trump and who voted against certifying the election results in 2020. The Republicans for the most part see the Jan. 6 commission as an opportunity to score political points against them, and the Democrats say this is going to be a fair, non-biased, and nonpartisan investigation into what happened on Jan. 6, starting with a hearing next week with some of the police officers who were involved in the battle with the protesters inside the Capitol.

More Show less

In his New York Times op-ed, David Brooks says the US is facing an identity crisis — protecting liberal and progressive values at home while doing little to stop autocrats elsewhere. But has the US really abandoned its values abroad just because it's withdrawing from Afghanistan? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analyst Charles Dunst take out the Red Pen to argue that the US can advance democracy without being the world's sheriff.

More Show less

When the Tokyo Olympics begin on Friday, Japan watchers will be following more than just the performance of Japan's star athletes, including tennis star Naomi Osaka. They will also be tracking the political fortunes of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who is taking a big gamble by staging the event — amid a raging pandemic — in the face of strong and longstanding opposition from the Japanese public. What are the stakes for Suga, particularly with elections on the horizon? Eurasia Group senior analyst Ali Wyne explains.

More Show less

YouTube pulls Bolsonaro's rants: Google-owned YouTube pulled down a series of videos on the channel of Brazil's populist President Jair Bolsonaro, accusing him of spreading misinformation about the pandemic. YouTube removed more than a dozen clips for touting quack cures for coronavirus or claiming, in defiance of scientific experts, that masks don't reduce COVID transmissions. Last year, Twitter and Facebook also removed some content from Bolsonaro's feeds for similar reasons. But critics say that YouTube's move is too little too late, because Bolsonaro has been spreading misinformation about COVID since the pandemic began. Many Brazilians hold him personally responsible for the country's abysmal pandemic response, which has led to almost 550,000 deaths, the second worst toll in the world. Will YouTube's move change Bolsonaro's message? His weekly address to the nation, where he converses not only with government ministers but also various conspiracy theorists and loons, is broadcast on YouTube. Surely he doesn't want to risk losing that — or does he?

More Show less

Boycotts! Bans! Protests! Drugs! Think you've got gold medal knowledge about politics at the Olympics? Test what you know with this special Tokyo Olympics Quiz. And to stay current on all the latest political stories at the Games and around the world, subscribe here to Signal, our daily newsletter. Now, without further ado, the first question is...

More Show less

28: The UK and the EU have again failed to agree on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. In a 28-page document, the British government had suggested further changes to trade rules that were already negotiated as part of the Brexit settlement, but Brussels was not having any of it.

More Show less

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. Watch episodes now

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. Watch episodes now

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal