After Putin

After Putin

In Moscow last weekend more than 1,300 people were arrested during protests over the exclusion of opposition candidates from local elections. Anti-Kremlin activist Alexei Navalny was detained and then admitted to hospital amid suspicions he'd been poisoned. And Vladimir Putin? He was piloting a submersible to the bottom of the Gulf of Finland to check out the wreckage of a World War II Soviet submarine. Even from the bottom of the sea, the Russian president's hold on power appears secure.

We don't know when or how Putin will eventually leave the stage—his current term ends in 2024—but his declining popularity and long time in power have begun to prompt more speculation about what comes next. You can check out interesting examples here, here, here, here, and if you read Russian, here.

Russia's post-Putin future will depend in part on whether he remains the power behind the throne when someone like Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, Moscow Mayor Sergei Sobyanin or National Security Advisor Nikolai Patrushev takes his seat. Even if he does, challenges are sure to follow. Infighting and political uncertainty among the leading contenders could have a big impact on Russia's domestic policy, and maybe its foreign policy too—and well before any transition takes place.


Here are some things we can expect:

Almost immediately, a new president will try to assert his authority to ensure small challenges don't quickly become big ones. We can assume the security services and the military will keep their power and privileges, and others are unlikely to test the new leadership directly – at least not right away.

As time passes, the first tests will take place behind the scenes. Some of the men with guns will probe the balance of power within the security services. Powerful businessmen who've steered clear of politics under Putin will test to see if they can wield new influence, perhaps publicly.

People outside the circle of power will take new chances. Journalists who've avoided troublesome topics in Putin's Russia will want to know if the same rules apply. Opposition activists and ordinary citizens will test Kremlin patience by demanding the political and economic changes they think a leadership change should bring.

How might Russia's foreign policy change? Russia experts at a Washington-based think tank called the Free Russia Foundation recently argued that former Soviet republics Belarus and Kazakhstan will become "more likely targets for Russian meddling than any other country" because both are important buffer states for Russia, and neither has a formal security alliance with an outside power that can protect them.

What about China? The same authors wrote that over time, "Russia will become a Chinese satellite." They reason that US and European sanctions combined with an intensifying US-China rivalry will push Moscow and Beijing to see past their traditional mutual mistrust to work together more closely, but at a time when a widening economic disparity has swung the China-Russia power balance much more decisively in China's favor.

There's no reason to think Putin's time is short, but after nearly two decades in power, and at a moment when Russia's politics are becoming more complex, the speculation itself is something people inside and outside Russia will be watching.

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The European Union is, for better or worse, the most ambitious experiment in human history in institutionalized multinational cooperation. Its success depends on the willingness of its members to abide by its rules.

In recent years, the populist-nationalist governments of former Communist bloc members Hungary and Poland have flouted some of those rules in order to boost their own popularity with citizens suspicious of the EU's liberal values on issues like immigration and minority rights. In response, the EU has scolded these "illiberal" governments and threatened forceful action – so far without much effect.

The fight between EU institutions and Poland and Hungary has escalated.

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Who's most responsible for spreading misinformation online? For Ginny Badanes, senior director for Democracy Forward at Microsoft, the problem starts with those who create it, yet ultimately governments, companies and individuals all share the burden. And she's more interested in what we can do to respond.

Ginny Badanes spoke at a live Global Stage event, Infodemic: defending democracy from disinformation. Watch the full event here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage/virtual-events/disinformation-is-a-big-problem-what-can-we-do-about-it

Some of the worst sectarian clashes since Lebanon's 15-year civil war (1975-1990) broke out in Beirut this week between supporters of Hezbollah and Amal, both Shiite political parties, and Christian, far-right Lebanese Forces. Shiite protesters were rallying against the state probe into the Beirut port blast, which occurred last year. They say authorities were singling out Shiite politicians for questioning and blame. Below is our original piece on the Beirut port explosions published on August 5, 2020.


The twin explosions at Beirut's port on Tuesday were so powerful that the aftershocks reverberated as far as the Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus, 150 miles away. The specter of fire and smoke was such that many suggested on social media that Beirut had experienced a nuclear blast.

In the days ahead, more details will come to light about why a deadly cache of materials was haphazardly stashed at a port warehouse, and why Lebanon's government failed to secure the site. So, what comes next for crisis-ridden Lebanon?

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Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:

What does it actually mean to cut $1 trillion from the Democrats' $3.5 trillion social spending bill?

President Biden has proposed one of the most ambitious expansions of federal spending in recent memory. If he gets everything he wants, it would probably be the largest expansion of government since the Great Society, but he's not going to get everything he wants. Democrats have basically said they cannot do all $3.5 trillion in spending. They're probably going to end up around $2 trillion. So what gets cut? Well, we don't know yet. There's kind of two ways to go about this. They could either cut the number of programs that have been proposed, doing fewer things with more money on a permanent basis, or they could try to do more things, each program getting less money and potentially doing them on a temporary basis. So, a future Congress would have to extend it. What does this mean for you? Well, a lot of the money in here is designed to go directly to families, either in the form of cash payments, through the tax code, the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit, or subsidies for things like child care, early childhood education, and community college. And if you cut these things back, it means less money is going to go out the door to the American people. It also means less tax increases to finance it. So the implications of what's being proposed could actually end up being a big deal for a lot of Americans who would qualify for benefits under these new programs.

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How will artificial intelligence change the world and especially the job market by 2041? AI scientist Kai-fu Lee just wrote a book about precisely that, and he predicts it'll shake up almost every major industry. AI, he explains, will be most disruptive to many so-called "routine" occupations, but the damage may be reduced by shifting "empathetic" workers to jobs that require human empathy. Watch his interview on GZERO World with Ian Bremmer.

Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Is a robot coming for your job? Kai-fu Lee explains AI

The Atlantic CEO Nick Thompson believes in tech firms doing business in China because connecting with people there is a huge social good for the world. But in demanding LinkedIn de-platform certain people, he says, the Chinese government crossed a line, and "you can't justify that."

Watch Ian Bremmer's interview with Nicholas Thompson in an upcoming episode of GZERO World, airing on US public television.

Sectarian clashes in Lebanon: As Lebanese supporters of Hezbollah and Amal, both Shiite political parties, were on their way to a protest in Beirut Thursday, gunfire broke out, evidently between Hezbollah militants and those of the Christian, far-right Lebanese Forces. The protesters were rallying against the ongoing state probe into last year's devastating twin blasts at a Beirut port, saying that state authorities were singling out Shiite politicians for questioning and blame. They have called for the dismissal of Judge Tarek Bitar — who is leading the probe and on Monday issued an arrest warrant for a prominent Shiite parliamentarian linked to Amal. Each side has blamed the other for starting the violence Thursday, which killed at least six people, injured dozens more, and threw the entire city into a panic. In a grim omen, the clashes, which are among the worst in recent years, erupted along one of the old front lines (dividing Muslim and Christian neighborhoods) of the 15-year sectarian civil war that devastated the country up until 1990. With the country mired in economic and political crises, the people of Lebanon can't seem to catch a break: just last week the country was plunged into complete darkness when its decrepit power grid ran out of fuel. Meanwhile, Najib Mikati, who became prime minister designate in July after months of political deadlock, declared a "day of mourning," but civil strife continues.

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