Coronavirus Politics Daily: Yemen's new cluster, South Korea hits zero, and is Sweden a good model?

Coronavirus Politics Daily: Yemen's new cluster, South Korea hits zero, and is Sweden a good model?

Yemen's COVID cluster: Growing concerns about the coronavirus reaching some of the world's most vulnerable populations are playing out this week as Yemen's port city of Aden reported its first cluster of cases. Although the country has recorded only a handful of cases overall, the UN says that given the near absence of testing, the disease is likely spreading undetected, and has issued a new call for an immediate ceasefire in the five-year civil war between Iran-backed Houthi rebels and Saudi-backed coalition forces, in order to deal with the pandemic. We note that a similar call from the UN Secretary General last month still hasn't had much effect. A COVID-19 outbreak is just one of many woes facing Yemen, one of the poorest countries in the world, which has faced a deadly cholera outbreak in recent years and unprecedented levels of hunger, with some 24 million people relying on some form of aid to survive. The combination of a shattered healthcare system and zero testing capacity against the backdrop of constant conflict places Yemen in a uniquely dangerous situation.


South Korea hits zero: No new locally-transmitted cases of COVID-19 have been recorded in South Korea for the first time in ten weeks. South Korea was one of the first countries outside of China to report a coronavirus outbreak, and has since emerged as a global model for containment, using thorough contact tracing, social distancing measures, and widespread testing to curb the disease's spread. The country even managed to pull off a seamless parliamentary election on April 15, in which at least 66 percent of eligible voters took part without anyone contracting the disease. (Compare that to the Wisconsin presidential primary, in which at least 52 voters or poll workers got sick with COVID-19 at polling stations, according to health officials in that state.) Still, South Korean authorities are keeping a close eye on what happens during several holidays that are approachingincluding Buddha's birthday, May Day, and Children's Day – in which people often travel or visit family members.

Who wants to be Sweden? As countries around the world debate when and how to reopen their economies, many are looking to the example of a place that hardly even closed its own. Sweden, rejecting the drastic lockdowns seen elsewhere in Europe, has closed universities and banned large gatherings, but left elementary schools, bars, and restaurants open, while asking the Swedish people to observe social distancing practices on their own. Has it worked? Compared to Nordic neighbors with stricter lockdowns, Sweden's rate of 24 deaths per 100,000 people is high: Denmark's is just 7 deaths per 100,000, while Norway's is a scant 3. But Sweden's rate is still lower than those of heavily locked-down countries like Italy, France, and Spain. There are two things to remember as the Sweden debate rages: first, lockdowns are meant primarily to slow the speed of the outbreak, so that hospitals aren't overwhelmed – Sweden's have not been. While critics say Sweden has needlessly let people die, supporters say the government smartly front loaded the inevitable fatalities without crushing its healthcare system or its economy. Second, Sweden is a unique case: it's a country with superb public healthcare (for all), relatively high trust in government, and one of the second highest work-from-home rates in the world. In other words, unless you are Sweden, DON'T TRY THIS APPROACH AT HOME.

This time last year, world health experts were speculating about why Africa appeared to have escaped the worst of the global pandemic. Younger populations? Natural immunity created by exposure to past viruses? Something else?

They can stop wondering. Africa is now in the grip of a COVID emergency.

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Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi barred two Republican members from serving on the Jan. 6 commission. What's going on?

Well, the Jan. 6 commission was designed to be a bipartisan commission, taking input from members from Democrats and Republicans. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had the opportunity to make recommendations but the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could always veto those recommendations. In this case, she did, saying no to two members, Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, both of whom are strongly aligned with President Trump and who voted against certifying the election results in 2020. The Republicans for the most part see the Jan. 6 commission as an opportunity to score political points against them, and the Democrats say this is going to be a fair, non-biased, and nonpartisan investigation into what happened on Jan. 6, starting with a hearing next week with some of the police officers who were involved in the battle with the protesters inside the Capitol.

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In his New York Times op-ed, David Brooks says the US is facing an identity crisis — protecting liberal and progressive values at home while doing little to stop autocrats elsewhere. But has the US really abandoned its values abroad just because it's withdrawing from Afghanistan? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analyst Charles Dunst take out the Red Pen to argue that the US can advance democracy without being the world's sheriff.

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When the Tokyo Olympics begin on Friday, Japan watchers will be following more than just the performance of Japan's star athletes, including tennis star Naomi Osaka. They will also be tracking the political fortunes of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who is taking a big gamble by staging the event — amid a raging pandemic — in the face of strong and longstanding opposition from the Japanese public. What are the stakes for Suga, particularly with elections on the horizon? Eurasia Group senior analyst Ali Wyne explains.

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YouTube pulls Bolsonaro's rants: Google-owned YouTube pulled down a series of videos on the channel of Brazil's populist President Jair Bolsonaro, accusing him of spreading misinformation about the pandemic. YouTube removed more than a dozen clips for touting quack cures for coronavirus or claiming, in defiance of scientific experts, that masks don't reduce COVID transmissions. Last year, Twitter and Facebook also removed some content from Bolsonaro's feeds for similar reasons. But critics say that YouTube's move is too little too late, because Bolsonaro has been spreading misinformation about COVID since the pandemic began. Many Brazilians hold him personally responsible for the country's abysmal pandemic response, which has led to almost 550,000 deaths, the second worst toll in the world. Will YouTube's move change Bolsonaro's message? His weekly address to the nation, where he converses not only with government ministers but also various conspiracy theorists and loons, is broadcast on YouTube. Surely he doesn't want to risk losing that — or does he?

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Boycotts! Bans! Protests! Drugs! Think you've got gold medal knowledge about politics at the Olympics? Test what you know with this special Tokyo Olympics Quiz. And to stay current on all the latest political stories at the Games and around the world, subscribe here to Signal, our daily newsletter. Now, without further ado, the first question is...

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28: The UK and the EU have again failed to agree on post-Brexit trade rules for Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom. In a 28-page document, the British government had suggested further changes to trade rules that were already negotiated as part of the Brexit settlement, but Brussels was not having any of it.

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