COVID-19 in US, Emerging Markets; US-China Blame Game; Venezuela Coup?

What is the coronavirus update? Have emerging markets been spared so far?

The biggest news is that the US might have a lot more mortality from coronavirus than previously expected in the models. Particularly as we start seeing opening of economies. The US is a federal system and states don't necessarily listen to each other. They don't follow the federal government, and people don't necessarily pay attention to what state governments say. Put all that together, expect to see a lot more people get sick. Whether that is 3,000 or 800 deaths a day, two wildly different models, for the next month. What I've seen so far makes me feel a bit more optimistic, because opening up economies isn't people in full engagement. Big difference in what government says and what people do.


Have emerging markets been spared so far?

Not at all. But, it is hitting emerging markets a little later. Also, numbers of cases are suppressed by the fact that they're not doing as much testing. In some cases, also suppressed by the fact that maybe there is reduced transmission with much warmer weather. I hope that's the case, but the doctors aren't agreed. Either way, the developing world is focusing more on keeping economies open than at extended lockdowns. For some of the poorest countries, like in sub-Saharan Africa, where average age can be under 20, and economies aren't as globalized, in many cases, focused more on agriculture, the fact that they are as underdeveloped as they are is ironically buffering and protecting them from the worst of the coronavirus crisis.

What are the consequences of US-China blame game over coronavirus origins?

The most important consequence is that we'll see more confrontation and less interdependence between the two economies. The Americans will be investing less in China, reducing supply chain footprint, allowing Chinese to invest less in the United States, much more scrutiny. Some key American allies will be doing the same. In the wealthier European states. In Japan, for example. But the Americans are not getting coordination from allies. In part, that's about Trump. In part, that's about the way they've decided to engage in blame. Particularly the last couple days, saying this came from a lab in China and the secretary of state and President Trump saying there is conclusive evidence, strong, very strong evidence that that is the case. The Americans have shared that intelligence with key allies and the allies are saying this is all open source. There's nothing conclusive and we don't buy it. Even Australia, which can't stand the Chinese right now, getting into a big fight, not supporting the Americans. Really overplaying their hand. There's no reason why the Americans can't focus on, there was a cover up, it came from China, we're blaming the Chinese for that. But by going too far, it's like the weapons of mass destruction moment that Colin Powell, Dick Cheney, had in the Bush administration on Iraq. The Americans lose more credibility hitting the Chinese on this.

Finally, what's going on in Venezuela?

According to the Venezuelan government, there was an effort to invade and stage a coup against Mr. Maduro, that included two Americans, former Green Berets, they are saying. The Venezuelan opposition are denying. The American government is denying. We have no idea what the truth is. You can't imagine the American government saying, that was us, if that was indeed the case. But the Venezuelan government has even less credibility than the US and the opposition. It would not surprise me at all if there were a couple of Americans involved in a military incident. That doesn't mean that it was supported directly or indirectly by the US government. They could be mercenaries for hire. They could be ideologically aligned. They could be dual nationals, Venezuelans or Colombians. There's been a lot of talk, but no one in the Trump administration, now that Bolton is gone, actively interested in a military solution for Venezuela. In fact, Trump was resistant for Bolton's hard line. He was undermining Bolton both privately and publicly. So, I'm deeply skeptical of that, as I'm deeply skeptical of most things that come out of the Venezuelan government these days.

Vaccines are the best hope to end the COVID-19 pandemic. But rich countries are hogging most of the doses, with more than 83 percent of shots administered to date having gone to residents in high- and upper-middle-income countries. Most poor countries will have to wait years to achieve widespread vaccination, according to one study.

To address this inequity some stakeholders are pushing hard for waivers to intellectual-property (IP) rights through World Trade Organization trade rules so that manufacturers in poorer countries can make their own vaccines locally. India and South Africa have been leading the charge, which would essentially mean that deep-pocketed pharma companies like New York-based Pfizer, for instance, would have to hand over the keys to the kingdom, allowing local companies in New Delhi and Johannesberg to make generic versions of their vaccines.

Unsurprisingly, the debate has gotten fiery, with passionate arguments emerging both for and against.

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Europe has been hit by a green wave in recent years. Green parties in countries as varied as Germany, Belgium, France, Ireland, Finland, and Sweden have made sizable electoral gains, with some now sitting in national governments.

The Green phenomenon seems to be gaining yet more momentum in the lead up to some crucial European elections (Germany, France) in the months ahead. What explains the green shift, and where might this trend be headed?

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More than 930 million doses of COVID-19 vaccine have already been administered globally, and another 1 billion more are expected to be manufactured by the end of May. Most of the manufacturing is concentrated in a small group of countries. While some — like China, for instance — are exporting roughly half of the shots they make, others — mainly the US — are keeping most of the supply for domestic use. Meanwhile, export controls have been a particularly thorny issue in the European Union and India, where governments have come under intense pressure to stop sending vaccines to other parts of the world amid sluggish rollouts at home. We take a look at what the world's top manufacturers are doing with the vaccines they are producing.

Ian Bremmer explains how a fire on the Cuyahoga River in Cleveland, Ohio, in the summer of 1969, set the conservation movement ablaze in the United States. A TIME Magazine article about the fire led to the Clean Water Act, creation of the EPA, and the first Earth Day—April 22, 1970. Over 50 years later, citizens of the world agree that climate change is a global emergency. But how can nations come together to find solutions that are truly attainable?

Watch the GZERO World episode: Can We Fix the Planet the Same Way We Broke It?

US President Joe Biden's highly anticipated two-day climate summit opens on Thursday, when dozens of world leaders and bigshot CEOs will gather (virtually) to try to save the planet. Above all, the US is looking to showcase the idea that "America is back" on climate change. But will other countries buy it?

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55: EU governments on Wednesday reached a deal to cut greenhouse gas emissions by 55 percent from 1990 levels by the end of the decade. The commitment is in line with the bloc's broader goal of going carbon-neutral by 2050.

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What are the most promising climate solutions? Elizabeth Kolbert discusses the three types of technologies that are being considered to address climate change, which include cutting edge, science fiction-like technologies like geoengineering, pulling carbon out of the atmosphere and nuclear fusion. Kolbert, a Pulitzer Prize winning climate journalist, spoke with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World about the opportunities and unknowns involved in assessing these extreme solutions. "You can say, 'Well, we've unwittingly geoengineered the planet, let's try to think this through rationally and can we come up with technologies like solar geoengineering to mitigate or counteract that?'" The episode is airing on US public television starting April 16.

Watch the episode: Can We Fix the Planet the Same Way We Broke It?

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