VIDEOSGZERO World with Ian BremmerQuick TakePUPPET REGIMEIan ExplainsGZERO ReportsAsk IanGlobal Stage
Site Navigation
Search
Human content,
AI powered search.
Latest Stories
Start your day right!
Get latest updates and insights delivered to your inbox.
Ian Bremmer's Quick Take: Hi everybody. Ian Bremmer here and a Quick Take on the assassination of Hamas political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran while he was attending the inauguration of the new Iranian leader, Pezeshkian. Almost certainly carried out by the Israelis. This is a big attack. It's an enormous success for the Israeli Defense Forces. It is potentially a very significant escalation in the conflict across the Middle East with a so-called Iran-led Axis of Resistance, of which Hamas, of course, is a core part. Also shows the weakness of the United States in its lack of influence over the Israeli government, over the Israeli military. So an awful lot of moving parts here.
Let's first talk about what we know. This is an enormous embarrassment. It is a security failure. It is an intelligence failure for the Iranian government. The idea that the leader, the political leader of Hamas who was there invited by the Iranian government in a secure military compound for the inauguration taken out and killed by the Israelis, enormously embarrassing. The Supreme leader has already said that there will be significant retaliation. The Iranian permanent mission in the UN said special operations in kind, which implies not military targets, but perhaps civilian government targets in Israel. This clearly has the potential to spill over into broader conflict between Iran and Israel. The one thing that would really have a regional impact, a global economic impact despite the prices of oil and also likely draw the Americans directly in. I wouldn't say that this is more likely than not to happen, but it is more likely than at any point that we've seen in the war thus far. That probably includes even when we had the attack on the Iranian leader in Syria and Damascus by the Israelis and the Iranian response with drones and missiles. That's the first point, is that now we need to watch very carefully for when and what that Iranian escalation is likely to be, and does it end there or do the Israelis continue in a spiraling tit-for-tat? Iran, of course, is not just a non-state sort of member of the Axis. It doesn't just engage in terrorism, though they fund it widely across the region and more broadly, this is a country that is close to having nuclear weapons capability. They have a very large military, they have a very significant presence across the region. They now have established diplomatic relations with most of the states across the region. Anything that they do that is escalatory has global ramification, so that's the first point.
Secondly, the fact that this is the death of the Hamas political leader. On the one hand, you now have a very significant number of leaders, military and political of Hamas that have been eliminated by Israel. So if the intention is to take out Hamas from Gaza and their ability to have sort of their existing leadership, those that ordered the terrorist attacks on October 7th, if that is the military intention of Israel, they are closer to being finished with the war in Gaza than they have been before. If the point is you have to remove Hamas as an idea, Hamas as an organization that has political support and people that are willing to take up arms to support them there, Israel is much farther than they were on October 7th, and that's a serious problem because of course, the desire of average Palestinians to avenge this strike is going up. Palestinians, not just in Gaza, but also in the West Bank and refugees in Jordan, and more broadly across the region. So likelihood that we see expanded terrorism, expanded radicalism on the back of this is also going up.
The United States, as I mentioned, was not aware, had no coordination with, no intelligence sharing with Israel in the run-up to this attack. Let's keep in mind the US did everything they could to defend Israel when the Iranians were sending drones and missiles against them. Israel is the closest ally of the United States in the Middle East. It gets more military support, more economic support and aid from the US every year than any other country, not just in the Middle East, but in the world, and yet Biden's ability, Kamala Harris's ability, Secretary of State Blinken's ability, the US Administration's ability to influence Israeli outcomes in terms of a negotiated settlement, a ceasefire, humanitarian aid, nature and scope of military operations has been exceptionally limited. This has not been coordinated military operations between the US and Israel. The Americans have been providing the arms, they've been providing the money, and the Israelis have been doing what they want, and that is a vulnerability. It's a big vulnerability for Kamala Harris, probably her most significant vulnerability when we look at the upcoming elections. Now, it is true that Harris is more supportive of the Palestinians than Biden. She's more focused on a two-state solution. She's more focused on trying to prevent further humanitarian disaster on the ground in Gaza than Biden has been. But her making that distinction while she is serving as Vice President for President Biden is exceptionally hard, and so again, I think this is going to be a problem. She's going to have to answer more questions about this on the campaign trail. She's not going to have very good answers, certainly won't have good answers as long as she's not president and Biden's not planning on stepping down.
It's also a problem because Biden's ability, given his own age, his frailty to make strong statements, to be out there every day to be driving US foreign policy in this crisis is open to question. I think there are a lot of people, not just Republicans that are going to raise questions if God forbid this escalates and looks like it is turning into a war between Israel and Iran. Is Biden capable of leading the country in a situation of true emergency? And I think there are a lot of good reasons to say the answer to that is no. And I mean, if it were up to me, I'd say that he actually does need to step down because that's important, but I also think it's incredibly unlikely that's going to happen, and that's the reality that we face.
More broadly, I don't think this is going to break the Abraham Accords. I think even though the Arab states are quite angry about the fact that this has happened, I don't see, for example, the Emiratis, the Bahrainis, others from maintaining diplomatic relations with Israel. Saudi Arabia continues to want to do a lot with Israel on the national security side, but you will not see them opening diplomatic relations until this present Israeli government is gone.
I also didn't even mention the fact that, of course, there was also strikes on Beirut, the Lebanese capitol just a day ago, that assassinated a significant military leader of Hezbollah. Nominally ultimately responsible for the rocket strikes that killed some 11 Israeli citizens in the occupied territory of the Golan. That on the one hand, definitely shows that Israel has exceptional intelligence and the ability to take these leaders out in a way that they have not for Hamas military leadership in Gaza. If you are Hezbollah and you're thinking about opening a broader war against Israel, that kind of reality quick response is going to give you pause.
The fact that the Israelis said that's it, that is all they're doing in response to those rocket attacks, I think makes it more likely that the Lebanon front is stable, and certainly the oil markets have reflected that. That's very different than what we are seeing, what we are likely to see as a result of this assassination in the Iranian capital. So an awful lot going on. A very dangerous environment, a political cycle that isn't opportune to responding to it, and lots more to talk about over the coming days and weeks I'm sure.
That's it for me, and I'll talk to you all real soon.
Keep reading...Show less
More from Quick Take
Quick Take
Dec 15, 2025
Trump’s new national security strategy targets Europe
December 08, 2025
Trump, Russia, and a deal Ukraine can’t accept
December 02, 2025
Europe divided as US pushes Ukraine-Russia peace deal
November 24, 2025
Trump escalates sanctions against Russia
November 10, 2025
Is Abu Dhabi becoming the global capital of AI development?
November 02, 2025
What the Trump-Xi meeting means for US-China relations
October 30, 2025
Trump’s East Wing demolition, Binance pardon, and tariffs on Canada
October 27, 2025
Trump brokers peace: Hostages freed and guns fall silent in Gaza
October 13, 2025
Trump's role in brokering Israel-Hamas deal
October 09, 2025
America’s short-term wins vs. long-term risks
October 06, 2025
Israel is facing real consequences over Gaza annexation plans
September 29, 2025
Is Israel risking global isolation over Gaza?
September 22, 2025
Charlie Kirk's assassination will make things worse in the US
September 15, 2025
Russia-Ukraine war escalation
September 08, 2025
China’s push for a new world order
September 02, 2025
Is the US preparing to strike Venezuela?
August 27, 2025
Is American capitalism still capitalism?
August 25, 2025
Zelensky, Trump, and NATO: A united front on Ukraine?
August 18, 2025
Trump and Putin to meet in Alaska to discuss Ukraine
August 11, 2025
US government rescinds West Point role for former cyber director
August 04, 2025
US-EU trade deal marks a win for Trump
July 28, 2025
The US, China, and the critical minerals question
July 21, 2025
Epstein conspiracies divide Trump's MAGA base
July 14, 2025
US-Brazil relations in crisis
July 10, 2025
Elon Musk vows to start a new political party
July 07, 2025
What Zohran Mamdani’s win really signals for US politics
June 30, 2025
Iran's retaliation shows strategic weakness
June 23, 2025
US enters war with Iran: What comes next?
June 22, 2025
Iran looks to negotiate ceasefire
June 16, 2025
Elon vs. Trump: Billionaire fallout goes public
June 06, 2025
Elon Musk steps down from Trump administration
May 29, 2025
Trump's weekend of geopolitical success
May 12, 2025
Can Trump and Carney reset US-Canada relations?
May 07, 2025
Trump’s ‘less is more’ message is un-American
May 05, 2025
Ian Bremmer on Trump's first 100 days
April 28, 2025
Trump’s America: A kleptocracy but not a police state
April 23, 2025
Inside the Harvard-Trump showdown
April 21, 2025
Can the US win by undoing globalization?
April 14, 2025
Who benefits from Trump's tariff wall?
April 07, 2025
Trump's tariffs & the end of globalization
April 03, 2025
Leaked Signal chat shows Trump team's mindset
March 26, 2025
What Trump team's war plans leak revealed
March 25, 2025
Is Europe in trouble as the US pulls away?
March 24, 2025
Putin-Trump Ukraine call is a small win for both sides
March 18, 2025
What will Trump offer Putin in Ukraine ceasefire talks?
March 17, 2025
Ukraine ceasefire deal now awaits Putin's response
March 11, 2025
Can Europe broker a Ukraine ceasefire?
March 03, 2025
What Trump-Zelensky fallout means for Ukraine war
March 01, 2025
Why the US-Ukraine minerals deal changed
February 26, 2025
Germany's close election limits its ability to lead Europe
February 24, 2025
Ukraine hopes for Europe's help as US negotiates with Russia
February 18, 2025
JD Vance stuns Munich conference with critique on European democracy
February 14, 2025
Trump-Putin chat over Ukraine "deeply" worries Europe
February 13, 2025
What is Trump's Gaza playbook?
February 10, 2025
Why cutting USAID will hurt American foreign policy
February 05, 2025
Why is Trump starting a trade war with Canada?
February 02, 2025
How Trump's assertive foreign policy impacts international relations
January 27, 2025
Trump's Davos address sets up big shifts in US strategy
January 24, 2025
From Davos: How global leaders are grappling with Trump’s return
January 20, 2025
Ian Bremmer on the forces behind the geopolitical recession
January 17, 2025
What Greenlanders might want from a deal with Trump
January 13, 2025
New Year's Day terror attacks highlight America's divisions
January 03, 2025
GZERO Series
GZERO Daily: our free newsletter about global politics
Keep up with what’s going on around the world - and why it matters.














































































