For sixteen years, Viktor Orbán has been the standard-bearer of European nationalist politics: the man who rewrote Hungary's constitution, turned the country into what critics call an electoral autocracy, and became the only European leader that MAGA voters know by name. But with Hungary's parliamentary elections approaching on April 12th, Orbán's grip on power is slipping.

Opposition candidate Péter Magyar is polling ahead by double digits, and even Trump's endorsement may not be enough to save him. Ian Bremmer traces Orbán's unlikely arc from liberalist dissident to illiberal strongman, breaks down why his real economic patron is Beijing, and ultimately why losing this election would send shockwaves far beyond Budapest.