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What We’re Watching: Iran meets with Putin, NATO gathers at the Hague, Venezuela targets black markets
Russian President Vladimir Putin shakes hands with Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi during a meeting at the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, on June 23, 2025.
US bombing of Iran creates Russian conundrum
Russian President Vladimir Putin welcomed Iran’s foreign minister on Monday, offering rhetorical support for Tehran – but it’s unclear what more the Kremlin is willing to do for its last major Middle Eastern ally right now. Putin has cultivated good ties with Iran, but also with Israel. At the same time, with Washington focused on Iran, Russia continued to hammer Kyiv with airstrikes over the weekend. Just days ago, Putin openly declared that the “whole of Ukraine is ours” – does he think the end goal is in sight?
NATO allies meet for an uncomfortable summit
Defense expenditure will be the top agenda item when leaders of 32 countries – all from Europe and North America – gather at the North Atlantic Treaty Organization summit tomorrow in the Hague, Netherlands. Ahead of the gathering, the group agreed to increase its defense-spending target from 2% to 5% of GDP, but granted an exception to Spain due to the prime minister’s political problems at home. Questions about the strength of the alliance are swirling: US President Donald Trump has sparred with his NATO allies for years now, and there’s no sign that the tensions will subside – his decision to bomb Iran undercut European efforts to foster a truce in the Middle East.
Venezuela cracks down on black markets – could it backfire?
The Venezuelan government has arrested dozens of people, including former top officials, in a crackdown on the country’s sprawling black market for dollars. Authorities blame off-the-books dollar traders for destabilizing the exchange rate, but experts say that the government’s economic mismanagement, coupled with US sanctions, means that black markets are the only way to satisfy popular demand for greenbacks. Stamping out those channels could, they warn, make things worse. Venezuela’s inflation rate has already surged past 200% this year.
Young Iranian female protesters shout anti-U.S. and anti-Israeli slogans while participating in a protest to condemn the U.S. attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities in downtown Tehran, Iran, on June 22, 2025, amid the Iran-Israel war.
The United States is back at war in the Middle East: Late Saturday evening, the US military unleashed 75 precision-guided weapons, including 14 “bunker-buster” bombs, against Iran’s Fordo, Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sites. Israel followed up by hitting Fordo’s access routes on Monday. US President Donald Trump is now openly contemplating regime change.
It’s not yet clear how much damage has been done to Iran’s nuclear capabilities. Trumphailed the operation and said that the US had “completely and totally obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program, but Vice President JD Vance said Sunday the White House is going “to ensure that we do something with that fuel,” tacitly acknowledging that the Islamic Republic may still retain supplies of enriched uranium. Tehran, for its part, said it had already moved fuel and key technology away from the key nuclear sites before they were bombed.
How Might Iran Retaliate? Tehran called for revenge, but it’s not yet clear what that looks like. The original Israel-Iran war continues, as the two sides traded barrages of ballistic missiles over the weekend. Whether the US becomes further intertwined is another matter. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi warned in a post on X that the US attacks “will have everlasting consequences” and that Tehran “reserves all options.” Those include:
- Closing the Strait of Hormuz. Iran could sow undersea mines, ban patrols, or harass tankers by quickboat to halt travel in the Strait, which would cripple roughly 20% of global oil transit and send prices soaring – prices are already edging up in anticipation of the strait’s closure. But Tehran would also pay the economic price of withholding its chief export, which US Secretary of State Marco Rubioqualified as “economic suicide.” Iran’s parliament seems unfazed: it voted on Sunday to back a plan to close the Strait of Hormuz, pending approval by the country’s Supreme National Security Council.
- Attacking US bases. US military sites in the region are on high alert after Iran’s Revolutionary Guardlabeled US troops as not a “strength” but a “vulnerability.” Tehran also said on Monday that the US attack had expanded the range of legitimate targets. Analysts estimate, however, that half of Iran’s missile launchers have been destroyed and it has significantly depleted its stockpile of roughly 2,000-3,000 missiles.
- Attacking other US interests. Iran couldstrike US personnel and interests in the region, according to Middle East expert Jonathan Panikoff of the Atlantic Council. Itcould also bide time, rebuild capabilities, and plan terrorist attacks inside the US, including cyberattacks on major infrastructure. Such tactics may not satisfy hardliners, however, and the weakened regime may feel the need for a greater and faster show of strength.
- Leveraging allies and proxies. Russiahas condemned the US strikes and could become more deeply involved, with Araghchi heading to Moscow for consultations on Monday. Iran could deploy proxies Hamas and the Yemen-based Houthis – who have alreadyvowed revenge – to attack US or Israeli sites. Hardline factions inside Iran could also gain momentum.
What Do Iranians Want?
- Domestically, public reaction ismixed: a rally-around-the-flag effect combined with ongoing grievances with the regime over economic hardship, corruption, and lack of freedoms. Critically, there’s no mass opposition movement poised to topple the regime, and tight surveillance makes it more difficult to organize.
- Outside the country, the Iranian diaspora has long advocated for reform or regime change, but the government is now limiting their influence inside the country. It has shut down the internet anddeployed AI answerbots, making communication extremely difficult, limiting the news Iranians can receive and their ability to engage.
HARD NUMBERS: Belarus frees dissident, Farmers kidnap Colombian soldiers, Damascus church attacked, & More
Belarussian dissident Syarhei Tsikhanouski hugs his wife, Belarussian opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, after he was released from prison, in this screengrab taken from a social media video released on June 21, 2025.
5: Belarussian dissident Siarhei Tsikhanouski, husband of the de-facto opposition leader Sviatlana Tsikhanouskaya, was freed on Saturday after spending more than five years in jail. US special envoy Keith Kellogg reportedly helped foster the deal. GZERO recently interviewed Tsikhanouskaya here.
57: Colombian farmers in the southwestern region of Valle del Cauca have kidnapped 57 government soldiers. Authorities say the farmers were pressured by local rebel factions that have rejected the 2016 peace deal with the government. For more on rising political violence in Colombia, see our recent piece here.
25: At least 25 were killed in a suicide bombing at a church Damascus, Syria, amplifying concerns about sectarian violence under the government of former-jihadist Ahmed al-Sharaa, who overthrew the Assad regime in December. Syria’s interior minister said the attacker was affiliated with Islamic State – the group itself has not claimed credit.
12: A suspected female suicide bomber killed at least 12 people at a fish market in Borno state in northeast Nigeria on Friday night. Borno is the center point of Boko Haram’s insurgency movement – an insurgency that has been going on for 16 years.
1.8%: War, huh, what is it good for? The Israeli stock market, evidently. The country’s main index reached record highs on Sunday after rising 1.8% following the US attack on Iran’s nuclear enrichment facilities. Since Israel began wider airstrikes on Iran last week, the index is up a total of nearly 8%.
A miniature statue of US President Donald Trump stands next to a model bunker-buster bomb, with the Iranian national flag in the background, in Kananaskis, Alberta, Canada, on June 19, 2025.
Trump gives himself, and Iran, two weeks
US President Donald Trump said Thursday that he will decide whether to bomb Iran’s nuclear facilities “in the next two weeks,” a move that re-opens the door to negotiations, but also gives the US more time to position military forces for an operation (and the expected retaliation). Speaking of negotiations, European leaders were reportedly set to meet with Iranian officials in Geneva today to explore a diplomatic solution to the crisis. Meanwhile the war itself rages on: Tehran struck a hospital in Be’er Sheva in southern Israel on Thursday, while Israeli forces bombed the unfinished nuclear power plant at Arak and struck industrial targets in Northern Iran. And Tehran is now rushing to export as much oil as possible as fears grow that the war could result in closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Iran’s biggest oil customer? China.
Court clears Trump’s control of California National Guard
A federal appeals court ruled Thursday that Trump acted legally when he took control of the California National Guard despite objections from the state’s governor. The decision overturns a lower court ruling from last week. Trump “federalized” the National Guard to quell protests and riots against his hardline immigration enforcement. The LA unrest has calmed – Mayor Karen Bass rescinded a curfew on Tuesday – but the court’s ruling sets a precedent Trump can point to in future protests against immigration or other aspects of federal policy.
Rwanda’s opposition leader arrested
Rwandan authorities arrested prominent opposition leader Victoire Ingabire on Thursday, alleging that she created a criminal organization and incited public unrest. Lawyers for Ingabire, who was jailed from 2012 to 2018, say the move is politically motivated. President Paul Kagame, who has ruled Rwanda for three decades since the 1994 Genocide, has won plaudits for resurrecting the economy and keeping the peace. But he brooks no dissent – last year he won the presidential election with 99% of the vote.
People ride motorcycles as South Korea's LGBTQ community and supporters attend a Pride parade, during the Seoul Queer Culture Festival, in Seoul, South Korea, June 14, 2025.
June is recognized in more than 100 countries in the world as “Pride Month,” marking 55 years since gay liberation marches began commemorating the Stonewall riots – a pivotal uprising against the police’s targeting of LGBTQ+ communities in New York. Here’s a look at where LGBTQ+ rights stand today:
47%: A recent poll of more than two dozen countries in Europe, the Americas, and Asia found that openness towards LGBTQ+ communities has dipped in recent years, with the proportion of people who believe LGBTQ+ people should be open about their sexual orientation or gender identity falling 8 percentage points, to 47%, since 2021.
1.3 million: The US government on Tuesday ordered the closure of the Trevor Project, a national suicide prevention hotline for LGBTQ+ youth, which has served more than 1.3 million people since it was established in 2022. The official announcement omitted the “T” for transgender – a sign of the administration’s broader anti-transgender push.
61: As of 2024, 61 countries have laws criminalizing same-sex relations, with 7 countries – Yemen, Uganda, Saudi Arabia, Nigeria, Mauritania, Iran, Brunei– still imposing the death penalty for such acts.
9.3%: The percentage of U.S. adults who identify as LGBTQ+ has increased significantly since 2020, rising from 5.6% to 9.3%, according to a Gallup poll last year. The main driver of this growth is younger generations: more than one in five Gen Z adults now identify as LGBTQ+.
10: Since 2020, 10 countries have moved to recognize same-sex marriage, with Liechtenstein and Thailand legalizing it earlier this year. Still, only 38 countries out of 195 countries have legalized same-sex marriage—see our graphic here.
1: There has only ever been one openly transgender member of the US Congress: Rep. Sarah McBride (D-DE) became the first after winning her seat last November.
Port of Nice, France, during the United Nations Oceans Conference in June 2025.
Amid a rising tide of concerns about the temperature, level, and even the color of the world’s oceans, the third United Nations Ocean Conference (UNOC) gathered in Nice, France, last weekend to try to address some of the challenges. The principal topic was the High Seas Treaty: dubbed the “Paris Agreement for the ocean,” the pact aims to boost conservation efforts in areas outside of national jurisdictions, which accounts nearly half of the planet’s surface.
To learn more about this critical treaty, Eurasia Group’s biodiversity and sustainability analyst María José Valverde sat down with Rebecca Hubbard, the director of the High Seas Alliance. This interview has been edited for length and clarity.
María José Valverde: How have you seen the marine sector evolve since the first UN Ocean Conference?
Rebecca Hubbard: The ocean sector has made significant progress since the first UNOC, especially in public and political awareness. Interest in ocean conservation has grown, particularly regarding the high seas, which were historically viewed as a secondary issue because we don’t live in them. Governments are also looking at it through the frame of the blue economy and increasingly understand the importance of sustainable resource management, including the role oceans play in absorbing heat and carbon dioxide. There’s also been greater political will to act, supported by countless civil society organizations and initiatives like the UN Decade of Ocean Science. And in that process, the High Seas Treaty came to fruition, which marks a landmark change in how we govern the high seas, which cover half of the planet. That’s no small feat.
This is the first ocean conference with the Global Biodiversity Framework and the 30x30 marine target in place. How does that affect your work when engaging countries or sectors?
The adoption of the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework – including the goal to protect 30% of land and sea by 2030 – has made a big difference. It’s absolutely critical for the high seas; the areas beyond national jurisdiction cover around two-thirds of the ocean and we will not be able to reach the 30% target if we do not protect the high seas.
Given the challenges of coordinating across borders and institutional frameworks, do you expect practical difficulties in implementing and achieving agreement under the High Seas Treaty?
Implementation is always more challenging than making commitments, but we’ve built substantial political momentum. When it comes to doing any of these conservation tasks, it’s really about leaders and governments feeling ownership and understanding the value, and many countries have gone to great lengths to ratify and prepare for implementation, despite the complex processes of legislation, consultation, and educating their ministries and departments.
Even with current geopolitical tensions, there’s a genuine appetite for multilateralism because countries realize global challenges demand collaboration. We’ve already seen strong regional cooperation in places like Asia-Pacific and Latin America, where countries support one another in understanding how to implement the Treaty. It won’t be simple, but there is real hope and determination to achieve something globally significant.
Are there regions or countries that stand out as leaders in supporting the ratification and implementation process?
We’ve seen leadership come from across all regions, which is very encouraging. In the Pacific, developing, small-island states have renamed themselves the “big ocean states,” and have remained ocean and climate champions. Palau specifically was the first one to ratify the treaty, and we’ve got a number of others that have also ratified it, all working together to pursue ratification as a region. Costa Rica and France, as co-hosts of the UNOC, have made Treaty ratification a core goal, leveraging diplomatic networks to encourage others. The Philippines has been a regional leader in Asia, hosting capacity-building workshops for other Southeast Asian countries, even though domestic politics have slowed their own ratification. Nigeria has emerged as a leader in Africa – they were not the first to ratify the treaty, but they have provided a lot of support and encouragement to other countries. Finally, the preparatory meetings to establish institutional processes for the Treaty have shown strong engagement and consensus-building, which is very promising for future implementation.
What are the main barriers to the approval of the High Seas Treaty?
A significant barrier is the lack of understanding. Our efforts are focused on raising awareness among countries, especially within their ministries, about how activities in the high seas affect their national waters. Species and ecosystems are interconnected, and actions in the high seas can undermine national conservation efforts if not properly managed. Specifically for landlocked countries, of which there are over 40, discussions focus on the ocean's role in climate systems and water cycles. There is potential there for capacity building, marine technology transfer, and marine genetic resource finance. High seas research can bolster national science and tech sectors, as accessing this data is typically cost-prohibitive for individual countries.
What’s next for the High Seas Alliance once the Treaty is ratified? What are your immediate objectives?
Ratification feels like the end, but it’s really just the beginning. Our goal is to get at least 60 countries to ratify – hopefully by UNOC, or very shortly thereafter – so that the Treaty can enter into force. Then we’ll push for universal ratification and support countries in building the institutions and processes that make the Treaty functional, inclusive, and efficient. We’ve already started working on implementation; we did a science symposium in Australia on the Lord Howe and Tasman Sea region, and some workshops in the Walvis Ridge, which is off the coast of Africa.
What inspired you to devote your career to ocean conservation?
I’ve always loved the ocean. I was very fortunate to grow up in Australia, spending much of my childhood at the beach thanks to my dad, who was a surfer. I grew up with love, fear and respect for the ocean – and the fact that we’ve done so much damage to it, not valued how it’s the source of all life on the planet, and how little effort we put into it to care for it made me decide that this is what I needed to work on. I have now worked on ocean conservation for 20 years.
The High Seas Treaty, for me, represents the single biggest step we can take for global conservation, given the central role of the ocean in supporting life. It’s also a source of inspiration; more people should focus on the spiritual benefits that we get from nature and from the ocean, instead of reducing them to their scientific or economic value.U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell attends a press conference following the issuance of the Federal Open Market Committee's statement on interest rate policy in Washington, D.C., U.S., June 18, 2025
4: The US Fed on Wednesday held interest rates steady for the fourth time in a row, awaiting more data on the economic impact of Donald Trump’s tariff policies. Trump himself this week blasted Fed Chair Jerome Powell as “a stupid person, frankly” for not resuming the rate cuts that began last fall.
0%: Canada recorded a population growth of 0% in the first quarter of 2025, the lowest mark since 2020. This is the sixth consecutive quarter where population growth has slowed, and it comes after the federal government voted to reduce immigration levels late last year.
14 million: Canada is set to produce liquified natural gas (LNG) for the first time this weekend when a coastal facility in British Columbia begins operating. While the $40-billion plant will initially operate at just one quarter of its capacity, it is expected to ultimately export 14 million metric tonnes of LNG every year. It is the first North American LNG plant with direct access to the Pacific, meaning it can serve the voracious appetite for LNG in Asia.
$100 million: Seven men were arrested in California for the “largest jewelry heist” in US history, after stealing $100 million dollars worth of gold, gems, and watches from an armored truck near San Francisco in 2022.