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Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu addresses the 80th United Nations General Assembly at the UN headquarters in New York City, USA, on September 26, 2025.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu didn’t mince his words during his fiery 40-minute address at the United Nations, lauding his country’s military efforts over the last year.
“We’ve hammered the Houthis, including yesterday. We crushed the bulk of Hamas’ terror machine. We’ve crippled Hezbollah, taking out most of its leaders and much of its weapons arsenal,” said Netanyahu.
“We destroyed Assad’s armaments in Syria. We deterred Iran’s Shiite militias in Iraq. And most importantly, and above anything else that I can say to you that we did in this past year – in this past decade – we devastated Iran’s atomic weapons and ballistic missiles program.”
For all the harsh rhetoric and usual props – the Israeli leader conducted a pop quiz from the dais using giant cue cards – Netanyahu’s speech masked what has otherwise been a difficult week for him. His flight from Tel Aviv to New York avoided mainland Europe, presumably over fears that he would be arrested by the International Criminal Court on suspicion of war crimes. Several Western countries – including some who have historically backed Israel – recognized Palestinian statehood. There were also coordinated walkouts ahead of Netanyahu’s speech, just like last year, while Netanyahu’s supporters lauded the prime minister from the gallery.
Meanwhile, the war in Gaza is set to reach the two-year mark. Israel will once again mourn the 1,200 lives lost in the terroristic attack on Oct. 7, 2023, as well as the hundreds who were taken hostage by Hamas on that day.
“It is time, as we approach the Jewish high holidays that speak of taking score of what you did and what you did not do over the last year, that maybe [Netanyahu] also has time to reflect and understand that it is time for him, as well, from a Jewish perspective, to do the right thing,” Ruby Chen, whose son Itay was killed on Oct. 7, 2023, told GZERO at the United Nations, “Which is getting a deal to allow 48 families to be reunited with their loved ones again.”
Itay’s remains are still in Hamas hands.
Israel’s invasion of Gaza post-Oct. 7 has garnered international condemnation and accusations of genocide. Yet Netanyahu’s mission is incomplete: Hamas lives on, albeit in weakened form, and 48 hostages – 20 of whom are believed to be alive – remain in captivity. All the while, the Israeli leader’s standing in the international arena, even within the MAGA camp, has diminished – as he acknowledged during his address.
The Trump administration, meanwhile, is hoping to push Bibi to finally end the brutal war – one that has left over 65,000 Gazans dead, per the Hamas-run health ministry. The White House presented a peace plan to Arab and Muslim leaders at the UN this week that includes the immediate return of all remaining hostages, a permanent ceasefire, and an international advisory group overseeing a Palestinian administration of Gaza. The plan also says that no Gazans can be forcibly removed from the enclave. Washington is hoping that it can leverage its personal relationships with Gulf states to press Israel and the Palestinians to accept its terms.
“I think that's a fantastic plan and very well thought out,” Albert Tamman, a finance worker who travelled from London to attend Netanyahu’s speech, told GZERO. “It’s good that it’s other Muslim countries that take over, so the population can relate to their leaders.”
Netanyahu, however, has resisted recent efforts for a ceasefire, frustrating his allies, electorate, and adversaries alike. It’s unclear whether he or the Palestinians will accept the latest US proposal. The Israeli leader’s speech, though, suggested he still has plans for Gaza.
“Free the hostages now,” he said, in a message that was being streamed to cellphones in Gaza. “If you do, you will live. If you don’t, Israel will hunt you down.”
For more on Israel’s increasing international isolation, see Ian Bremmer’s quick take from earlier this week.
What We’re Watching: Moldova heads to the polls, China checks Mexico, Iranian nuclear program comes to a head
Moldova's incumbent President and presidential candidate Maia Sandu casts her ballots at a polling station, as the country holds a presidential election and a referendum on joining the European Union, in Chisinau, Moldova October 20, 2024.
Moldova votes amid a broader Russia-vs-EU tug of war
The tiny former Soviet republic of Moldova heads to the polls this Sunday, amid allegations that Russia is sowing confusion and disinformation to promote anti-European candidates. The current government of the country, which borders Ukraine, has pledged to join the EU by 2030, but the coalition is polling neck-and-neck with a pro-Russian opposition party that opposes that plan. Beneath all the high-stakes geopolitical drama, voters are focused keenly on economic issues in what is still one of Europe’s poorest countries – inflation remains high, corruption is rampant, and broader reforms have stalled.
China’s trade war with Mexico is heating up.
Beijing has launched a broad investigation into Mexico’s trade policies, accusing Latin America’s second largest economy of unfair tariffs and dumping. Mexico recently slapped a 50% duty on Chinese cars, partly to address Washington’s concern that China uses Mexico’s free trade agreement with the US as a “back door” to circumvent US tariffs. Mexico’s relations with China are tricky: For Mexican industries, China is at once a source of competition and, more recently, investment. Still, with the US by far its most important partner, Mexico finds itself increasingly at odds with Beijing, as the US-China rivalry deepens.
Iran signals it may snap if snap-back is applied
The UN Security Council votes today on whether to delay “snap-back” sanctions on Iran, following the collapse of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA — the Obama-era nuclear deal with Iran). Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian told the UN this week that Iran will “never seek to build a nuclear bomb,” but Iran’s parliament is considering legislation to explicitly do exactly that: pursue nuclear weapons and prepare to use them if warranted. Iran has also threatened to stop cooperating entirely with international nuclear inspectors if the sanctions are re-imposed.Hard Numbers: Trump tariffs drugs, WarSec calls unusual meeting, Argentina’s poverty plummets, Oz man fined in deepfake porn case
100: Donald Trump has announced a 100% tariff on branded pharmaceuticals for any company that is not already building new facilities in the US. However, the measure excludes generic drugs – which make up 90% of US imports. European pharma companies are awaiting clarification on whether this breaks the recently agreed-upon 15% tariff ceiling for all EU imports.
800: US Secretary of Defe–, we mean Secretary of War Pete Hegseth has abruptly summoned many of the US military’s 800 generals and admirals to an IRL meeting at a military base in Virginia next week. The purpose of the sudden, massive meeting is unknown but experts say a gathering of this kind is extremely unusual. Since taking office, Hegseth has fired a number of top officials, and ordered a 20% downsizing of senior brass.
31.6: Argentina’s poverty rate dropped to 31.6% — its lowest since 2018 — as President Javier Milei’s austerity, currency controls, and tight monetary policy curbed triple-digit inflation. Despite IMF support and easing inflation, economic stagnation, high unemployment, and rising informal work threaten Milei’s momentum ahead of the Oct. 26 midterm elections.
343,500: An Australian man was fined $343,500 in Australia’s first deepfake porn case after posting explicit images of prominent women on a now-defunct site. The federal court cited serious Online Safety Act breaches, setting a strong precedent against non-consensual deepfake abuse.What We’re Watching: Gaza talks heat up at UN, Another coordinated drone move in Europe, Czechia’s Trump eyes comeback
President of Palestine Mahmoud Abbas on pre-recorded video, addresses the UNGA 80 Plenary Meeting General Debate.
Palestinian Authority president pushes statehood in remote address to UN
Denied a US visa, Palestinian Authority President Mahmoud Abbas addressed the UN General Assembly remotely from Ramallah, accusing Israel of “war crimes” and “genocide” in Gaza while rejecting Hamas’s Oct. 7 attack and calling for the terrorist group to disarm. He claimed that the Palestinian Authority was ready to govern Gaza without Hamas, and said they are committed to “conducting presidential and parliamentary elections within a year after the end of the war.” His speech came as 10 Western nations joined roughly 150 others in recognizing Palestinian statehood this week, and after the Trump administration presented a plan for ending the war in Gaza on Wednesday. Meanwhile, Israeli leaders are threatening West Bank annexation and deepening their offensive in Gaza City. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu will respond tomorrow morning when he addresses the General Assembly.
“Professional” drone intrusion at four Danish airports
In what Danish ministers are calling a “professional” and “systematic” act, drones were spotted at four regional airports in the Scandinavian country. Two of these airports are used by military aircraft. The intrusion comes days after drones incurred into the airspace of Copenhagen airport, the country’s largest. It’s not yet clear who is behind the move, but Europeans are asking whether Moscow was involved, given that Russian drones recently entered the respective airspaces of Estonia, Poland, and Romania. Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen didn’t rule out Russian involvement in this latest action, and ministers refused to connect it as yet. Russia denied that it was involved.
The EU is about to get Czeched
Former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš, a billionaire rightwing populist, is set for a triumphant return to power in Czechia’s upcoming general election. Babiš, who held power from 2017 to 2021, is ferociously anti-immigration, skeptical of support for Ukraine, and opposed to what he sees as EU encroachments on Czech sovereignty. With less than two weeks until election day, his ANO party leads the polls by more than 10 points over the current center-right governing coalition. His likely win will strengthen a Eurosceptic axis of former Eastern Bloc countries, complicating EU policy on immigration and Ukraine.
Kenyan workers prepare clothes for export at the New Wide Garment Export Processing Zone (EPZ) factory operating under the U.S. African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA), in Kitengela, Kajiado County, Kenya, on September 19, 2025.
The African Growth and Opportunity Act, a trade pact that allows many products from 32 sub-Saharan African states to have free access to US markets, is set to expire in less than a week.
The White House still hasn’t said whether it will renew it.
First signed in 2000 by then-US President Bill Clinton, who saw it as a way to spread democratic ideals in parts of Africa, the deal hasn’t always lived up to expectations. Trade between the countries involved did initially rise, but has since dropped. For most of the countries involved, exports under AGOA account for less than 1% of GDP.
“AGOA’s highly imperfect. It’s a trade regime, and some countries have clearly done better than others,” Brookings Institution senior fellow Witney Schneidman, who was involved in passing and implementing AGOA, told GZERO. “But it needs to be strengthened, not killed.”
Which African nations are the main beneficiaries? South Africa has been by far the biggest beneficiary in terms of raw numbers, exporting nearly $56 billion in non-petroleum products under AGOA from 2001-2022 – specifically, car manufacturers based in South Africa have benefitted immensely. Renewing AGOA was a big reason why South African President Cyril Ramaphosa travelled to Washington in May. Nigeria, the next biggest partner, exported $11.2 billion under AGOA in that timeframe.
As a proportion of output, the country most reliant on AGOA is one that reportedly “nobody has ever heard of”: Lesotho. This landlocked country in southern Africa has built a significant textiles and garments sector on the back of AGOA, such that exports under the trade agreement account for 10% of its total GDP. An end to AGOA, on top of the 15% tariffs implemented at the start of August, would devastate the country’s two million people.
“Lesotho is the biggest beneficiary today, with the least alternative to fill the economic gap,” Ronald Osumba, a political strategist who once ran to be Kenya’s vice president, told GZERO.
For other countries, the importance of AGOA revealed itself when they were no longer included in the pact. Ethiopia was suspended from the pact in 2022 over “gross violations of internationally recognized human rights” during the Tigray War. Exports to the United States have plummeted since, several firms have left the country, and over ten thousand jobs are now gone. It was even worse for Madagascar when it was temporarily suspended from the pact in 2010: its GDP dropped 11%.
So what’s in AGOA for the US? Put simply, counterbalancing China and Russia.
“Africa is shifting east,” said Osumba. “China and Russia are having more influence on the continent today than any other time.” Renewing AGOA could help the US balance that influence.
Why does it matter? AGOA nations hold a sizable chunk of the world’s rare-earth minerals. Five of the top 15 sources of rare-earth minerals worldwide are in AGOA. In particular, the Democratic Republic of the Congo produces over 70% of the world’s cobalt, a mineral that is needed for the production of electric minerals. If AGOA isn’t extended, Osumba warned, Washington’s access to these critical minerals could be curtailed.
“There’s a concern there for the US in terms of access to natural resources.”
For Schneidman, it’s not just access to critical minerals: It’s also about leaving business opportunities on the table. He argued that, when it comes to using “trade over aid,” the Trump administration isn’t putting its money where its mouth is, vacating the area to its own detriment.
What’s stopping the US from renewing? US President Donald Trump’s general approach to trade and tariffs provides some hints. He is unafraid to use levies as a way to punish countries who he believes distort markets – the high levies he placed on countries including Brazil, China, India, and South Africa are a testament to this. AGOA grants members states tariff-free to US markets, but doesn’t give American firms anything in return, so it’s possible that Trump sees this as unfair. Plus, his “America First” foreign policy suggests he doesn’t share Clinton’s desire for democracy to spread worldwide.
But Frank Matsaert, an African trade & infrastructure expert at the Tony Blair Institute, believes the punt on AGOA renewal goes beyond this: he believes there’s an information gap.
“They’re not as aware of the potential effects of not renewing it,” Matsaert told GZERO. “If AGOA isn’t renewed, that could threaten $42 billion of bilateral trade.”
Is there any chance of a last minute change? Osumba isn’t hopeful.
“If it was to be done, this conversation should have already started a long time ago.”
Matsaert, meanwhile, retains some hope, providing that someone tells the US president the value of AGOA to his nation.
“This has had a big, positive impact on Africa. It could continue to have a positive impact, particularly at a time when the US is trying to diversify its supply chains,” said Matsaert. “The US consumer benefits, Africa benefits. Why not extend this?”
Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy talks to journalists, next to his wife Carla-Bruni Sarkozy and his lawyers, after the verdict in his trial with other defendants on charges of corruption and illegal financing of an election campaign related to alleged Libyan funding of his successful 2007 presidential bid, at the courthouse in Paris, France, September 25, 2025.
5: Former French President Nicolas Sarkozy was sentenced to five years in prison and fined about $106,000 for conspiring with Muammar Gaddafi, Libya’s former dictator, to fund Sarkozy’s 2007 campaign. The unprecedented ruling requires him to serve time even if he appeals, and is more harsh than many expected.
4: Four ex-staffers of Taiwan’s ruling DPP, including aides to President Lai Ching-te and security chief Joseph Wu, were convicted of spying for China. Sentences reached 10 years, with one aide also found guilty of money laundering and facing further charges for allegedly building a Chinese-linked criminal network.
1: A sniper killed one detainee and injured another two at an immigration facility in Dallas, Texas, before turning the gun on himself. The words “ANTI-ICE,” referring to the immigration enforcement agency, were inscribed on one of the bullet casings, suggesting the sniper may have been intending to hit a law enforcement official – though none were harmed. The attack raises yet more concerns over the rise of political violence in the United States.
90%: A new Australian horror film called “Together,” which has received a 90% score on the Rotten Tomatoes review site, was digitally altered in China such that a scene featuring same-sex couple now appears to be a heterosexual one. Chinese moviegoers noticed the difference when screenshots showing the original scenes went viral online. Homosexuality is legal in China, but isn’t formally recognized. Many of China’s LGBTQ+ community are ostracized, and some are even jailed.The UN General Assembly turns 80 this week, and the mood is grim. It’s not just the awful motorcade traffic in New York (do yourself a favor, walk or take the subway). Wars rage in Ukraine, Gaza, and Sudan. Autocrats flex their muscles with impunity. Democracies are fracturing at the seams. International cooperation is fraying as the G-Zero takes hold.
You'd think Climate Week – happening simultaneously in the Big Apple through September 28 – would add to the gloom given President Donald Trump’s skepticism of climate change (“the greatest con job ever perpetrated”) and outright hostility toward clean energy (a “scam”). But there's some genuinely good news for the planet buried in all this chaos: We may be at – or very near – peak oil demand.
This isn’t the old “peak oil” story that doomsayers have predicted for decades – the moment when the world runs out of accessible oil. Those theories have been proven wrong time and again – most recently when fracking and other extraction technologies turbocharged the industry’s productivity, unlocked new barrels, and turned the United States into the world’s top producer and exporter. What I’m talking about here is different. We're likely witnessing the moment when global appetite for oil finally starts to wane, driven not by scarcity but by changes in how the world consumes energy.
The most dramatic shift comes from China, whose appetite for fossil fuels kept global oil markets humming for thirty years. Between 2010 and 2020, Chinese oil imports doubled to 10 million barrels per day. That era looks to be over thanks to a demographic transition, a rapidly accelerating energy revolution, and slowing economic growth.
Start with demographics. China’s population peaked during Covid but has since shrunk by nearly 25 million people – roughly equivalent to Denmark, Sweden, and Norway combined – after growing by more than 155 million in the previous twenty years. Fewer people means less demand for gasoline and diesel – especially in a decelerating economy weaning itself off a housing and infrastructure construction binge.
Then there’s China’s energy revolution. In just five years, electric vehicles’ share of new car sales in China jumped from roughly 5% to over 50%. That alone took what used to be the world’s single largest growth market for gasoline off the table. But China’s technological transformation has gone far beyond cars. Beijing is also rapidly electrifying heating and heavy industry while deploying renewable power capacity (especially solar) at a historic scale. The country installed almost 270 gigawatts of new renewable energy in just the first half of 2025 – more than twice the new capacity installed by the entire rest of the world in the same period, six times what the US managed in all of 2024 at the heyday of Bidenomics, and more than India’s entire installed renewable capacity. The result: China’s oil demand has likely topped out and could enter structural decline as soon as this year, joining Europe and North America.
Not even a fast-growing India will be able to fill China’s shoes. Though still rising, Indian oil consumption growth has been uneven, slowed this year by infrastructure constraints. Unlike China’s, India’s economic expansion relies more on services than on oil-intensive sectors like construction and chemicals. The country is also now entering its own electrification phase. New Delhi wants EVs to reach a third of new auto sales by 2030, up from roughly 5% today. Even if that target slips, the direction of travel is unmistakable – especially as renewable technologies continue to get cheaper and better. India won’t fully replace China’s lost oil-demand growth.
Add it up and it’s increasingly plausible that global oil demand could shrink in 2025. Yes, consumption remains at record highs. But global demand growth has flatlined since the pandemic. Oil intensity across power, transport, and heating is plummeting everywhere. In the biggest consuming economies, oil use per capita has dropped by more than 15% over the past two decades. Europe’s green transition is uneven but persistent. America’s is slower than it could be but still ongoing, with renewables set to meet most incremental power demand because they’re cheaper to build and quicker to deploy at scale – the Trump administration’s “war” on them be damned.
Peak demand may not happen this year. Heck, it may not happen for another five or ten years. Prediction is hard, especially about the future. The debate on this question is as much political as it is analytical. That’s why the Trump administration has threatened to withdraw from the International Energy Agency over its “politicized” forecast of peak demand by 2030 – never mind that oil companies like Equinor and BP project a similar inflection point. But even the skeptics – especially the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and Exxon Mobil – now only quibble about the “when,” not the “if.”
So how are oil producers responding to the existential prospect of a shrinking market? Not by cutting supply and creating a deficit that lifts prices, as you’d expect, but by pumping more. In fact, after cutting for years, Saudi Arabia and its OPEC+ allies are on track to raise output by more than 1 million barrels per day year-on-year despite stagnant demand growth. They're determined to regain market share from their non-OPEC competitors – particularly the US – by keeping the taps open and squeezing out the highest-cost producers, even if it means lower prices for themselves. Non-OPEC supply, however, is stubborn. US production hit a record this summer and will likely plateau rather than crash as industry consolidation, cost discipline, and efficiency gains keep shale output resilient. Brazil and Guyana will continue adding low-cost offshore barrels. And Norway can keep pumping into Europe almost regardless of global pricing.
The combination of weaker demand and increased supply will result in a world awash in relatively – and increasingly – cheap oil. This doesn't mean prices will crash to zero. The world will use lots of oil for a long time, and prices need to stay high enough to induce the necessary supply. OPEC can pivot to cutting if it wants to (though the cartel’s coordination and market-management powers are likely to weaken as the energy transition advances and structural demand for oil wanes). Output, investment, and prices will ebb and flow with business cycles, shocks, and geopolitical developments. But the overall environment points to lower demand and softer prices.
For consumers, this is a gift. Cheaper oil will be a boon to households and oil-importing economies across Northeast Asia, Western Europe, India, and parts of Southeast Asia and South America. For oil producers, not so much. Countries whose entire budgets are predicated on $80-$100 oil are about to face a reckoning.
The geopolitical implications are stark. China's strategic bet on post-carbon energy dominance looks to be paying off. The country that was arguably the most fossil fuel-dependent on Earth in 2010 is now the world's first "electrostate.” Not only is it the largest consumer of clean energy by orders of magnitude, but it has cornered the market on both the finished products and the key supply chains that drive the transition globally – batteries, EVs, solar panels, critical minerals. By contrast, the Trump administration’s decision to double down on America’s petrostate status while waging war on renewables has near-term political utility, but it’s a losing play in a world that will be increasingly powered by electrons, with implications for economic competitiveness, AI dominance, and national security. Beijing’s recent weaponization of its rare earths dominance was just a glimpse of what the US has risked by ceding leadership and leverage to the Chinese in the electrotech space.
A near-term peak in global oil demand is good news for the climate fight. The world’s biggest emitter is now seeing its first drop in emissions driven by the growth of renewables. Critically, China is also exporting massive amounts of cheap renewable tech to developing countries, helping them leapfrog the dirty growth phase every industrialized country has had to go through in the past.
That’s not to say climate is a solved problem. Aviation, shipping, petrochemicals – these sectors are hard to abate and will keep running on fossil fuels for the foreseeable future. Persistently low prices can also disincentivize change at the margins. Plus, mass electrification requires upfront capital spending – lots of it. Solar and wind have become the cheapest form of energy in most sectors across much of the world, but you still need to build grids, storage, and charging at scale. Governments facing weak economic growth, high interest rates, and tight budgets will struggle to fund the infrastructure investments they need to turn cheap kilowatt-hours into lower bills. That keeps the politics of the transition messy, particularly in the US and parts of Europe, where there are tons of potentially stranded assets and powerful vested interests.
Not to mention that a world in which Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party save the world from climate change will look quite different from one in which the United States and its democratic allies do. It won’t matter to the planet. But it’ll make a difference for the future of democracy and the balance of power.