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Smoke billows from Nabatieh district, following Israeli strikes, according to two Lebanese security sources, as seen from Marjayoun.
200 billion: Philanthropist Bill Gates has pledged to give away $200 billion over the next quarter of a century. Gates, who made his fortune as the co-founder of Microsoft, said the money would go towards reducing poverty, stamping out diseases like polio and malaria, and ending preventable deaths among women and children. The move comes as the Trump Administration continues to cut US development assistance. Gates accused DOGE Czar Elon Musk, who is overseeing the cuts, of “killing the world’s poorest children.”
95 billion: The EU is readying tariffs on €95 billion ($107 billion) worth of US cars in the event that talks with the Trump Administration fail to end the burgeoning Transatlantic trade war. The US currently has a 10% tariff on nearly all EU exports, which could double in early July.
30: Donald Trump on Thursday demanded a 30-day unconditional ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, warning that otherwise the US would “impose further sanctions.” He spoke after a phone call with Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, who has pushed for a 30-day truce that would “show real movement toward peace.” Russia is currently observing a unilateral ceasefire of only three days, timed to coincide with Moscow’s celebration of the 80th anniversary of the Soviet triumph over Nazi Germany.
A voter casting a ballot in front of the Philippines flag.
The Philippines will hold midterm elections on May 12, with all 317 seats in the House of Representatives, half the 24-member Senate, and various provincial, city, and municipal positions up for grabs. The winners will take office on June 30, with terms of six years for the senators and three years for all other officeholders.
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. hopes to maintain his control of Congress as he seeks to advance his legislative agenda and expand his influence at the expense of former president Rodrigo Duterte’s political faction. In July, the new Senate will hold an impeachment trial for Vice President Sara Duterte-Carpio, who is the former president’s daughter and has repeatedly clashed with Marcos.
We asked Eurasia Group expert Peter Mumford what to watch for in this weekend’s vote.
What are the most important races?
The focus is really on the 12 Senate seats up for election; the House tends to align with the sitting president regardless of its composition. Marcos’s coalition currently consists of six parties in the Senate and nine in the House. Political parties have long been weak in the Philippines, so the concept of a “majority” is very fluid, especially in the Senate, which often acts independently of the president. Officially, the Senate is broken down into “majority bloc,” “minority bloc,” and independents – but “majority” refers to those senators who support the Senate president. This maps roughly, but not precisely, onto the coalition supporting Marcos (or not). There are members of the same party in both the majority and minority blocs, for example. It is therefore easier, but more subjective, to map out the senators who support Marcos and those who do not.
So, what are the stakes in the Senate races?
There are two main implications. First, and more significant for Marcos’s agenda, is whether Marcos retains majority support in the upper house; failure to do so would make it harder to pass proposed economic legislation, including a power sector overhaul aimed at lowering high electricity prices and modest revenue-raising measures designed to trim the large budget deficit and provide more resources for social spending priorities. Second, Duterte-Carpio’s political future is at stake following her impeachment by the House earlier this year on charges of high crimes related to death threats against the president and betrayal of public trust related to alleged misuse of intelligence funds (please see more below).
What are the most important issues for voters heading into these elections?
Surveys show that cost-of-living concerns are by far the biggest issue for voters. The Philippines has been grappling with relatively high inflation in recent years, with food prices a particular concern; price rises have slowed in recent months but that has not yet translated into shifts in public opinion. According to a recent poll, 79% of Filipinos disapprove of the administration’s efforts to control inflation, with just 3% approving. After cost-of-living, voters’ main concerns are pay, corruption, crime, and poverty.
How do the candidates propose to address these concerns?
They have made generic promises about tackling poverty but offered little in terms of specific measures. Philippine elections, especially those for congress, are primarily driven by the personalities and name recognition of the candidates. Many voters will be casting their ballots on the basis of who they know and like, rather than the policy or ideological views of the candidates. It’s worth noting that six of the top 12 candidates in polls are show business personalities; another popular figure is the former boxer Manny Pacquiao, a senator who is running for reelection.
How does the feud between the Marcos and Duterte clans play into election dynamics?
The battle for influence between the country’s two most powerful political dynasties sets the backdrop for the midterms. The upcoming polls will not have an impact on how long Marcos serves as president: He is bound by a single six-year term limit and is very unlikely to be impeached or removed by a coup before his terms ends in 2028. But the outcome of the upcoming Senate poll will determine whether Duterte-Carpio is removed from office and banned from running for public office again. Duterte-Carpio is the early favorite for the 2028 presidential election and the Marcos clan likely hopes she is prevented from running, making it easier for a member of the president’s family or another ally to succeed him.
Duterte-Carpio’s Senate trial is due to begin in late July. If two-thirds (16) of the senators vote against the vice president, she will be removed from office and probably barred from holding other government offices in the future (there is some debate about whether the latter would automatically apply if she is found guilty). She needs only nine senators to vote against or abstain. In addition, the outlook is complicated by the fact that some senators counted in the “pro-Marcos” majority, as they tend to support the administration’s bills, are actually closer to the Dutertes and will likely oppose her removal. That said, the president could press allies to vote against her.
Edited by Jonathan House, Senior Editor at Eurasia Group.
A cargo ship is loading and unloading foreign trade containers at Qingdao Port in Qingdao City, Shandong Province, China on May 7, 2025.
The urgency of the meeting — coming just weeks after reciprocal tariffs took effect in April — suggests the Trump administration is eager to de-escalate as economic costs mount. China is scoping out whether Washington is really ready to negotiate, and is framing the talks as US-initiated so they can engage without appearing to be yielding to US pressure.
Trade impacts are already visible. In the first quarter, the US share of Chinese exports dropped to a two-decade low, while American retailers warn of holiday shortages and rising prices. China, meanwhile, saw factory output shrink in April and is racing to secure new markets.
Each side comes to the table with firm goals. Washington wants to shrink China’s trade surplus and curb practices it sees as unfair, including industrial subsidies, tech restrictions, and IP theft. Beijing also wants tariffs reduced — but not at the expense of overhauling its economic model.
This weekend’s discussion is expected to be exploratory, not revolutionary. Progress, Eurasia Group China expert Lauren Gloudeman says, would be if “the meeting yields any plans to meet again.”
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer speaks on the phone to US President Donald Trump at a car factory in the West Midlands, United Kingdom, on May 8, 2025.
When President Donald Trump announced a trade deal that will reduce US tariffs on UK cars and plane engines in return for greater access to the British market for American beef and chemicals, he singled out Prime Minister Keir Starmer for praise.
“The US and UK have been working for years to try and make a deal, and it never quite got there,” said Trump. “It did with this prime minister.”
The president’s comment twisted the knife into the UK Conservative Party, which tried — and failed — to achieve a trade deal with the Americans during its 14 years in power. It took Starmer, the Labour leader, to finally clinch the deal less than a year after entering office.
Starmer isn’t the only winner. Brexiteers cited the prospect of a US trade deal to further justify exiting the European Union. The deal caps a stellar week for Reform UK leader Nigel Farage, after his party made extraordinary strides in the local UK elections last Thursday.
There’s a caveat. The scope of the deal was somewhat limited, with many goods still subject to the 10% tariff — Trump said this rate was “pretty well set.” The UK tariff rate appears to have dropped, while the US one has risen, although the White House numbers can sometimes be off.
What’s Trump’s strategy? With this deal — the first the US has made since “Liberation Day” — it’s not clear whether the president’s main goal is protectionism or winning concessions from America’s allies.
The US did nab some wins from the pact, including access to UK meat markets, but they inked it with a country with which they already have a trade surplus. Trump thus achieved both of these goals, making it unclear where his priority lies.The newly elected Pope Leo XIV (r), US-American Robert Prevost, appears on the balcony of St. Peter's Basilica in the Vatican after the conclave.
On Thursday, Robert Francis Prevost was elected the 267th pope of the Roman Catholic Church, taking the name Pope Leo XIV and becoming the first American pontiff — defying widespread assumptions that a US candidate was a long shot.
Who is he? Raised in Chicago, Pope Leo served for two decades in Peru, where he worked as a missionary, parish priest, teacher, and bishop.
What does he mean for the future of the Catholic Church? The 69-year-old pope faces pivotal decisions about the church’s future — chiefly whether to continue the inclusive and reform-minded agenda of his predecessor, Pope Francis, who died last month, or to chart a new course. He echoes Francis’ sentiments on immigration and devotion to the poor, but he is expected to be more conservative — especially when it comes to LGBTQ issues.
While Pope Leo may be a middle-of-the-road choice for the Catholic Church, his views on immigration put him on a crash course with the Trump administration. His X history reveals three recent posts disagreeing with how Trump — and JD Vance, in particular — have treated migrants.
“All fronts, all the time”: an interview on Trump, Canada, and Carney with the Hon. Jean Charest
Former Quebec Premier Jean Charest.
Donald Trump’s return to the White House has upended the long-standing and close US-Canada friendship in ways that were once unthinkable. But how exactly should Ottawa deal with the “America First” president? Is all of the upheaval merely a readjustment, or is the relationship fundamentally different now?
Few people are better positioned to assess the situation than the Hon. Jean Charest, former premier of Quebec, former federal cabinet minister and Progressive Conservative leader, and one of Canada’s most expert voices on international affairs and trade.
GZERO’s Tasha Kheiriddin sat down with Charest this week to learn what he thinks of what has transpired and how the two countries should move forward. Their conversation has been edited for length and clarity.
Q: Let’s talk about the recent meeting between Mark Carney and Donald Trump.Was it a win for Canada?
A: A win. Carney’s reply on the 51st state was a very well-thought-out response, as was saying, “Some things are not for sale, like the White House where we are now.” They got the tone right, they got the message right, and the level of seduction was just right without being too strong. And then they could get on with business.
Q: As you know from experience, relationships between Canada and the US are critical. How can Carney keep it in a positive place?
A: The key for Mr. Carney will be to seek out and identify the things that he can help Mr. Trump accomplish. What are his objectives? Be helpful for him, not confrontational.
Q: Let’s talk about the renegotiation of CUSMA, or USMCA. Trump said, “It will happen” but was vague about the time frame. Should Canada push for a faster renegotiation, or just focus on the tariffs?
A: I would do both. I’ll share an anecdote with you. I was on the set of CNN in Washington a few days after April 2. I crossed paths with Howard Lutnick, whom I didn’t know. We introduced each other and it’s kind of a one-, two-minute conversation where you just say hello. But three times he mentioned CUSMA, three times. So that’s obviously what they have in mind.
Why? Because it’s something you can work off, as opposed to reinventing it. But there’s a technical part to renegotiating CUSMA, a consultation process within Congress, 240 days. And so that’s a process that we should initiate as rapidly as possible.
In the meantime, we need to undo the tariffs on aluminum and steel. And that’ll take some time. The issue on steel is China, their overproduction and flooding the markets. And that reverberates all the way into the Canadian market and then the American market.
Q: Where do you think Congress will land on tariffs, and how important do you think voices from industry will be, from both sides of the border?
A: We should be on all fronts, all the time. Full press. There are no small rooms, there are no people we’re talking to who are not important. Governors, mayors, business people, congressmen, senators. This will break the logjam, if there is a concert of people who have had contact with Canadians and are able to repeat our lines.
And Trump may be sanctioned by the markets if he doesn’t change course. If we can offer him an off-ramp that would allow him to signal to the markets that we are moving ahead, that would reassure them.
Q: Let’s talk about China. We know that Trump is focused on China in his trade war. But Canada has issues with China, which has tariffed our canola and seafood. How should Canada act to protect our industries but not jeopardize our relationship with the US?
A: I think the short-term threat is that the Americans conclude a trade deal at the expense of Canada, which they’ve done before. We’re also anticipating that the Americans will want to include restrictions on dealing with China in their trade deals.
We have to better identify what our core interests are with China. Now, that includes selling them goods and agricultural products and energy: natural gas, LNG, and oil. We are replacing the energy that the Americans are not selling to China with Trans Mountain. Their sales have gone down, ours have gone up radically. So, energy is the future in the relationship with China as far as I’m concerned.
Q: Let’s talk about the military. Trump praised Canada for ramping up our military commitments. What more should our government do?
A: I think one thing that Prime Minister Carney is intuitively right about is enlarging the discussion to cooperation, which includes NORAD. It isn’t just about buying equipment, it isn’t just about doing more, it’s also about cooperation that is fundamental to the security of the United States and Canada.
There are major procurement issues in terms of NORAD and modernizing. There’s a reinvestment that’s happening now that I think is covered at least at 90% by the Americans and 10% by us, which is not a very good story on the Canadian side. And then there’s spending 2% of GDP. Prime Minister Carney has accelerated the time frame to 2030 as opposed to 2032, which is fine. Trump is right about that.
Q: Fentanyl and border security came up as well. We are making progress on both fronts. How important do you think that will be going forward?
A: We have to tell our story. There’s an issue of proportionality on the border. Fentanyl is a horrible scourge on our society. But we are not the problem. And we’re not the problem on immigration, so we don’t want to become the problem. I think what we’re doing now pretty much covers it.
Q: During the recent election campaign, Carney said the relationship we had between Canada and the US is over. After the meeting this week, do you think that’s true? Or is it fundamentally changed?
A: I think most of us would prefer to say it’s fundamentally changed. The word over sounds pretty absolute.
Q: It does.
A: I mean, as any of us who’ve been in a relationship, if you tell your partner it’s over, you’re not going to be sleeping in the same bed anymore, living in the same house. So it’s not over. Whatever happens, we will continue to be each other’s biggest customers. But even when Mr. Trump leaves office, it would be a mistake for us to believe that we’re going to return to something “normal.” It’s fundamentally changed. I don’t think it’s over, but it won’t return to what it was before.Conservative Leader Pierre Poilievre arrives on Parliament Hill for a meeting of the Conservative caucus following the federal election, in Ottawa, on May 6, 2025.
Canada’s Conservative Party caucus convened in Ottawa Tuesday for the first time since suffering a stunning federal election defeat last week. Leader Pierre Poilievre, who lost his Carleton seat, acknowledged the election results were “disappointing” but insisted that the party’s 41% vote share — the highest since the 1980s — was a milestone, and that the party must now “broaden our team.”
But who’s in charge? Parliamentary rules require the opposition leader to have a seat in the House of Commons, so until Poilievre secures a new seat through an upcoming by-election, party MPs have appointed former leader Andrew Scheer as interim opposition leader. The caucus also voted to adopt the Reform Act, which opens the way to a leadership review. Caucus has only used this act once, in 2022, to oust then-leader Erin O’Toole after he lost the 2021 election. His successor? Poilievre.
Can Poilievre avoid the same fate? For now, it appears he has the support to remain party leader – but he is not taking anything for granted. In a new video message, released after Tuesday’s meeting, the Conservative leader pledged to “learn and grow.” But that may not be enough for senior conservatives, who reportedly want “seismic changes” if he is to stay on, including the removal of his top advisor, Jenni Byrne, blamed by many for the party’s loss.