BREAK THAT WISHBONE

BREAK THAT WISHBONE

After the Turkey's done, it's a Thanksgiving tradition for two people at the dinner table to grab hold of the y-shaped “wishbone" of the Turkey, silently make wishes, and then pull it apart – whoever gets the bigger piece of bone gets what they want. Here are three groups of world leaders who'd make nice pairs when it's time to make a wish…


DONALD TRUMP AND XI JINPING

Trump's wish: “The president of China, who is greatly respected by me, will agree to cut support for China's flagship economic development project, Made in China 2025."

Xi's Wish: “Mr. Trump is more vulnerable politically to a trade war, so let's run out the clock until he is gone and then deal with a more predictable successor."

China and the US clashed during last weekend's APEC summit of Asia-Pacific powers in Papua New Guinea – with US President Mike Pence warning countries not to embrace Beijing's commercial overtures, while China's President Xi Jinping floated the dangers of conflict between the world's two largest economies. Mr. Trump and Mr. Xi will meet later this month on the sidelines of the G-20 summit in Argentina, and the prospect of tamping down tensions look bleak.

The dispute is narrowly about trade and industrial policy – Trump wants Beijing to stop unfairly supporting Chinese firms while throwing up huge barriers to entry for American ones, and the Chinese want to preserve a wildly successful state-centric economic model that they now hope can catapult them to technological dominance. But it's also taken on an existential hue for both sides: the US increasingly sees China as a competitor, while Beijing bristles at the sense that America is trying to prevent China from assuming its rightful place as a global commercial and technological power.

JAIR BOLSONARO AND ANDRES MANUEL LOPEZ OBRADOR

Bolsonaro's wish: “Right side of the wishbone."

Lopez Obrador's wish: “Left side of the wishbone."

Both Jair Bolsonaro, the rightwing president-elect of Brazil, and his leftwing Mexican counterpart Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador, won elections by promising to make radical changes in countries plagued by violence and inequality. They share an almost messianic appeal among their supporters, and both have a strong nationalist streak. But the similarities end there.

Bolsonaro, who has spoken nostalgically of Brazil's military dictatorship, wants to solve Brazil's problems through a combination of business-friendly reforms and radically conservative social and security policies. Lopez Obrador, who idolizes the early Mexican revolutionaries and leftwing strongmen who ruled his native Tabasco State in the 1930s, wants to increase the government's role in the economy and has placed an amnesty proposal at the heart of his plans to deal with an epidemic of narco-violence.

Beyond their countries' borders, they also differ: Bolsonaro has outlined a Trump-friendly foreign policy that takes direct aim at the region's leftwing governments, particularly Venezuela and Cuba. Lopez Obrador, for his part, has invited Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro to his inauguration, and he sees himself as a force for the renewal of a Latin American left tarnished by the recent debacles in Venezuela and Brazil. Watch this space closely: Latin America's two largest economies now have starkly different national and regional visions.

ANGELA MERKEL AND EMMANUEL MACRON

Macron's wish: “Money everyone can use."

Merkel's wish: “Money that everyone can use unless Germans are on the hook for it."

Both French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel believe that integrating the European Union further is the only way to head off the challenges of populist nationalism both on the continent (Hungary, Poland, Italy) and outside it (“America First"). On the economic front, an important part of that vision is Macron's proposal to create a common budget fund that can be used to help out eurozone members who run into economic or financial troubles.

Merkel has agreed to such a thing in principle, true. But big hurdles remain in implementing such a plan: most importantly, disagreement over its purpose. Macron sees the fund as a kind of rapid response tool, offering direct budgetary support for countries facing economic crises. But Merkel and the leaders of other fiscally fastidious Northern European countries wonder that would simply leave them on the hook for other countries' poor choices.

We pay little attention to the waves of the sea, yet they are the greatest unused source of renewable energy in the world. Meet ISWEC and Power Buoy, two interesting new technologies used to harness this energy. Learn more about the extraordinary power of waves in this episode of Eni's Energy Shot series, where we investigate interesting facts and trends about energy.

Ukraine is once again in a tough spot.

More Show less

2.8 billion: Chinese regulators fined e-commerce giant Alibaba a record $2.8 billion — about four percent of its 2019 revenue — for abusing its dominant market position and forcing merchants to operate exclusively on its platform. Alibaba founder Jack Ma has fallen out with Beijing in recent months after the billionaire publicly criticized China's regulators for stifling innovation in technology.

More Show less

Vaccine nationalism, where countries prioritize their own citizens before the rest of the world, has been effective for rich nations like the United States and Israel. But leaving behind so much of the global population isn't just a humanitarian issue. It could prolong the pandemic, according to the World Health Organization's Chief Scientist, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, who argues that what the global vaccination effort most urgently lacks are doses, not dollars. In a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer on GZERO World, she calls for a large increase in the global vaccine supply in order to prevent the rise of more dangerous and vaccine-evading super-variants. She also weighs in on a controversial new WHO report investigating the origins of COVID-19 and suggests we may be seeing alternative vaccine forms, like nasal sprays, sooner than we think.

Listen: Soumya Swaminathan calls for a massive increase in the global vaccine supply in order to prevent the rise of more dangerous and vaccine-evading super-variants, in a wide-ranging interview with Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast. Dr. Swaminathan, Chief Scientist at the World Health Organization, argues that vaccine nationalism, where countries prioritize their own citizens ahead of the rest of the world, will only prolong the pandemic because a virus does not stop at any national border. She also weighs in on a controversial new WHO report investigating the origins of COVID-19 and discusses when she thinks the world's children should get vaccinated. In addition, she suggests we may see alternative vaccine forms, like nasal sprays, sooner than we think.

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

India, the world's third largest emitter of carbon dioxide, is one of the countries worst affected by climate change. But it takes issue with those now asking it to clean up its act. Why, the Indians ask, should we give up our right to get rich by burning fossil fuels like you developed economies have done for generations?

That's precisely the message that India's energy minister had for the US and other wealthy nations at a recent Zoom summit after they pressured Delhi to set a future deadline for net zero emissions. For India, he explained, such targets are "pie in the sky" aspirations that do little to address the climate crisis the country faces right now.

More Show less

The Beijing 2022 Winter Olympics are nearly a year away, but discussion of a potential boycott is already stoking tensions on both sides of the US-China relationship. Officials in Washington and other Western capitals are coming under mounting pressure from activists to respond to human rights abuses in China. An increasingly assertive Beijing, meanwhile, vigorously rejects any foreign criticism of what it regards as internal issues.

The last time the US boycotted an Olympics was in 1980, when it withdrew from the Summer Olympics in Moscow to protest the Soviet Union's invasion of Afghanistan. Four years later, the Soviet Union repaid in kind by skipping the Games in Los Angeles. Would the US and its allies do something like that again? And how might China respond? Eurasia Group analysts Neil Thomas and Allison Sherlock explain the drivers of the boycott movement and its possible fallout.

More Show less

In two weeks, US President Joe Biden will be hosting an online "climate summit" to mark Earth Day. He'll ask China and India to sign up to America's ambitious new plan to slow down climate change. Will they go for it? China is the world's largest polluter, but Beijing is rolling out solar and wind power as fast as it's burning coal. India, meanwhile, is loathe to pick up the slack for rich countries that polluted their way to wealth and now want everyone else to agree to emissions cuts. No matter what happens, any successful plan to reduce global emissions will require buy-in from these three nations which, along with the European Union, account for almost 60 percent of global carbon dioxide emissions nowadays. Here's a look at emissions by the world's top polluters compared to everyone else over the last two decades.

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal