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Moments ago, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan delivered a highly anticipated speech in which he had pledged to unveil the “naked truth” about what happened to Saudi dissident journalist Jamal Khashoggi at the kingdom’s consulate in Istanbul.

As it happens, he kept some clothes on the story after all. Mr. Erdogan did divulge details suggesting the murder was a meticulously planned “political killing,” an accusation that directly contradicts Riyadh’s explanation that Khashoggi died accidentally after a kidnapping attempt went haywire. But Mr. Erdogan pointedly did not reveal any of the gruesome audio and video recordings of the crime that his top intel officials have reportedly obtained. And he did not mention Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman by name.

While his speech lacked the fireworks and clarity that some had expected, it was a shrewd move to reveal less than he may truly know about the affair. This approach gives him ongoing leverage in three areas:

First, regional politics: Ankara and Riyadh have been at odds at least since 2011, when Erdogan’s support for Islamist political parties during the Arab Spring infuriated the Gulf monarchies and other regional dictatorships who saw the democratic uprisings as a threat. Ankara’s deepening ties with Iran and Qatar have rankled the Saudis as well. The Khashoggi killing has been a “gift from God” to Erdogan, giving him an unexpected point of leverage over his Riyadh rivals.

Second, domestic politics: The brazenness of killing someone within Turkey is, on its face, an affront to the country’s sovereignty. Doubly so since Turkey has made a point of shielding Islamist dissidents (like Khashoggi) from persecution in their home countries. With an economic crisis lingering at home, the spat with Saudi Arabia also offers a welcome distraction for the Turkish president. He has demanded that Turkey be permitted to conduct its own investigation – if that probe is thwarted, Erdogan has lots more to say.

Third, crackdown on press freedoms, what crackdown on press freedoms? By positioning himself as a truth-teller on the Khashoggi affair, Erdogan can distract from growing concerns in Europe and (at least beneath the presidential level) the United States, about his deepening authoritarianism. Never mind that Turkey still jails more writers than any other country on earth – helping Western capitals get to the bottom of Mr. Khashoggi’s death would win President Erdogan some breathing space. Erdogan still has that power.

In all, Mr. Erdogan may have let down expectations of a big gruesome reveal – but his real audience here isn’t us, it’s the Saudis. They know what he knows. And he knows they know it.

Pop quiz: what percentage of plastic currently gets recycled worldwide? Watch this video in Eni's Energy Shot series to find out and learn what needs to be done to prevent plastic from ending up in our oceans. Plastic is a precious resource that should be valued, not wasted.

This Monday, March 8, is International Women's Day, a holiday with roots in a protest led by the Russian feminist Alexandra Kollontai that helped topple the Tsar of Russia in 1917. More than a hundred years later, amid a global pandemic that has affected women with particular fury, there are dozens of women-led protests and social movements reshaping politics around the globe. Here we take a look at a few key ones to watch this year.

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Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny shocked the world last year when he recovered from an attempted assassination plot by poisoning — an attempt that bore all the fingerprints of Russian government. Then he shocked the world again by returning to Russia and timing that return with the release of an hours-long documentary that catalogued the Putin regime's extensive history of corruption. Virtually no one, therefore, was shocked when he was immediately sentenced to a lengthy prison term. Anne Applebaum, a Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist and expert on authoritarian regimes, believes there was a method to Navalny's madness. "His decision of '….I'm going to do something that harms me personally, but is going to be a lesson for Russians. I'm going teach a generation of Russians how to be brave.' I mean, not very many people would have the guts to do that."

Applebaum's conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World, airing on public television stations nationwide starting Friday, March 5. Check local listings.

It's not like things are going well in Mexico.

COVID has killed more people there than in any country except the United States and Brazil. Just 2 percent of Mexicans have gotten a first vaccine jab, compared with nearly 24 in the US. The Biden administration made clear this week that it won't send vaccines to its southern neighbor until many more Americans have been vaccinated. Mexico's government has cut deals for doses from China, Russia, and India.

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A body blow for Pakistan's Prime Minister: Imran Khan suffered an embarrassing defeat this week when members of the National Assembly, the country's lower house, voted to give the opposition bloc a majority in the Senate. (In Pakistan, lower house legislators and provincial assemblies elect senators in a secret ballot.) The big drama of it all is that Khan's own Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party holds a lower house majority, which means that lawmakers supposedly loyal to his party voted in secret for opposition candidates. Khan's allies claim that PTI members were bribed to support the opposition, and the prime minister says he will ask for a lower house vote of confidence in his leadership. That vote will not be secret, but even if he survives, the political damage is done. Without a Senate majority, he has no chance of passing key reform plans, including constitutional amendments meant to centralize financial and administrative control in the federal government. Khan has, however, refused to resign.

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The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.


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