Small Countries, Big Stories: Cambodia and Honduras

Small Countries, Big Stories: Cambodia and Honduras

Often the biggest international stories are reflected in the world’s smaller countries. This week we peer into two little mirrors…


Honduras: Violence flared in Honduras as both candidates in last week’s presidential election claimed victory following a mid-vote shutdown of the electoral commissions systems. The opposition candidate, popular TV host Salvador Nasralla, accuses the US-backed incumbent, Juan Orlando Hernandez, of rigging the vote. A curfew is in place and a recount is underway.

Washington has a security problem: Hernandez is DC’s main man in Central America these days — the US has given him millions to bolster security in one of the Western Hemisphere’s most violent countries, in part to stop the flow of drugs and people northward to the US.

Democracy has a tech problem: Contested election outcomes are nothing new (remember hanging chads?) but as technology plays a greater role in elections, we can’t help but wonder if the legitimacy of votes will suffer as a result. Loosely speaking, democracy has both a hardware problem and a software problem.

The hardware problem: are electoral systems hackable? And even if they aren’t, will people perceive them to be in ways that undermine electoral outcomes even if they aren’t fraudulent?

The software problem: democracy depends on trust and good information. Fake news and poorly informed voters are certainly not new. But social media vastly expands the velocity, reach, and impact of fake news: even if you can’t hack a vote count, can you effectively hack a voter? In an atmosphere of growing polarization, people are increasingly likely to regard their fellow citizens’ choices as illegitimate.

Cambodia: Strongman Hun Sen, who has ruled for more than 30 years, recently cracked down on the country’s growing opposition party, which he accused of plotting a US-backed coup. The US, which has funneled aid to Cambodia to support a now-dubious transition to democracy, threatened to cut some funding as a result. Sen, unfazed, said he’d rather Uncle Sam get out entirely. One reason he is so comfortable bucking the US is that China now dwarfs the West in providing aid and investment to Cambodia.

The bigger story: China has been mobilizing massive resources to make new, and often authoritarian, friends in the region, and Beijing attaches far fewer political or human rights conditions to its money, and Washington’s uncertain commitment to the region opens more room for China to expand its influence. The soft power geography of Asia is steadily tilting towards Beijing.

This time last year, world health experts were speculating about why Africa appeared to have escaped the worst of the global pandemic. Younger populations? Natural immunity created by exposure to past viruses? Something else?

They can stop wondering. Africa is now in the grip of a COVID emergency.

More Show less

Listen: Stanford historian Niall Ferguson joins Ian Bremmer on the GZERO World podcast to talk about the geopolitics of disaster. Throughout human history we seem to be unable to adequately prepare for catastrophes (natural or human-caused) before they strike. Why is that? And as we emerge from the greatest calamity of our lifetimes in the COVID-19 pandemic and look to the plethora of crises that climate change has and will cause, what can we do to lessen the blow?

Subscribe to the GZERO World Podcast on Apple Podcasts, Spotify, Stitcher, or your preferred podcast platform to receive new episodes as soon as they're published.

Get insights on the latest news in US politics from Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington:

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi barred two Republican members from serving on the Jan. 6 commission. What's going on?

Well, the Jan. 6 commission was designed to be a bipartisan commission, taking input from members from Democrats and Republicans. House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy had the opportunity to make recommendations but the Speaker of the House, Nancy Pelosi, could always veto those recommendations. In this case, she did, saying no to two members, Jim Banks and Jim Jordan, both of whom are strongly aligned with President Trump and who voted against certifying the election results in 2020. The Republicans for the most part see the Jan. 6 commission as an opportunity to score political points against them, and the Democrats say this is going to be a fair, non-biased, and nonpartisan investigation into what happened on Jan. 6, starting with a hearing next week with some of the police officers who were involved in the battle with the protesters inside the Capitol.

More Show less

In his New York Times op-ed, David Brooks says the US is facing an identity crisis — protecting liberal and progressive values at home while doing little to stop autocrats elsewhere. But has the US really abandoned its values abroad just because it's withdrawing from Afghanistan? Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analyst Charles Dunst take out the Red Pen to argue that the US can advance democracy without being the world's sheriff.

More Show less

When the Tokyo Olympics begin on Friday, Japan watchers will be following more than just the performance of Japan's star athletes, including tennis star Naomi Osaka. They will also be tracking the political fortunes of Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga, who is taking a big gamble by staging the event — amid a raging pandemic — in the face of strong and longstanding opposition from the Japanese public. What are the stakes for Suga, particularly with elections on the horizon? Eurasia Group senior analyst Ali Wyne explains.

More Show less

YouTube pulls Bolsonaro's rants: Google-owned YouTube pulled down a series of videos on the channel of Brazil's populist President Jair Bolsonaro, accusing him of spreading misinformation about the pandemic. YouTube removed more than a dozen clips for touting quack cures for coronavirus or claiming, in defiance of scientific experts, that masks don't reduce COVID transmissions. Last year, Twitter and Facebook also removed some content from Bolsonaro's feeds for similar reasons. But critics say that YouTube's move is too little too late, because Bolsonaro has been spreading misinformation about COVID since the pandemic began. Many Brazilians hold him personally responsible for the country's abysmal pandemic response, which has led to almost 550,000 deaths, the second worst toll in the world. Will YouTube's move change Bolsonaro's message? His weekly address to the nation, where he converses not only with government ministers but also various conspiracy theorists and loons, is broadcast on YouTube. Surely he doesn't want to risk losing that — or does he?

More Show less

Boycotts! Bans! Protests! Drugs! Think you've got gold medal knowledge about politics at the Olympics? Test what you know with this special Tokyo Olympics Quiz. And to stay current on all the latest political stories at the Games and around the world, subscribe here to Signal, our daily newsletter. Now, without further ado, the first question is...

More Show less

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter, Signal

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. Watch episodes now

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal

GZERO World with Ian Bremmer. Watch episodes now

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's newsletter: Signal