Succession Session

When you rule over more than a billion people, the question of if, when, and how you leave power — or don’t — is naturally a big one, but Xi Jinping isn’t the only leader whose succession plans carry strong intrigue. Here’s what’s on your mind if you’re…


Russian President Putin: the constitution says time’s up when your next term ends in 2024. You could change it, but you’ve always pedantically fixated on the letter of the law (spirit of same, less so…) The last time you ran into term limits you swapped places with a human seat-warmer rather than mess with the constitution. You could designate a successor, but who could you trust to protect your interests without eclipsing your power? In a country where even the speaker of the legislature has said “If there is no Putin, there is no Russia,” this question will hang over every major decision in Russia for the next six years.

Saudi Arabia’s King Salman: you’ve groomed your 32-year-old son, Mohamed bin Salman, to succeed you, sidelining older members of the family who thought they were in line for the throne. MBS, as he’s known, has proposed radical social and economic reforms and tenderly jailed much of the elite in a bid to secure loyalty ahead of his coronation. Will the succession open the way to much-needed reforms, or will it provoke destabilizing internal frictions?

Kazakhstan’s President Nursultan Nazarbayev: you’ve run oil-rich Kazakhstan with a strong hand since even before the Soviet Union collapsed, but you’ll be turning 78 this summer so you’ve got to think about what comes next. You’ve deftly balanced relations with China, Russia, and the United States — will your successor be able to pull off the same trick?

German Chancellor Angela Merkel: Ok, you aren’t a strongman like the others on this list, but after 13 years dominating German politics, nearly half of your people recently said it’s time to bid you Aufwiedersehen. Luckily, your CDU party overwhelmingly approved your preferred successor, Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer, as its new leader just yesterday. But your rare combination of political skill, personal probity, and steely ambition are a tough act to follow. Can “mini-Merkel” fill your shoes, or will your legacy of stability be remembered as a prelude to troubles in Germany?

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Read more at Microsoft On The Issues.

William Hague: What is my prediction for the election?

Well, I think that conservatives will definitely have a bigger lead in votes over the Labour Party than at the last election, two years ago. Now that should give them a majority in the House of Commons. But then there will be tactical voting between Labour and Liberal voters against the Conservatives. And there are many undecided people at the last minute. So, I would go for a small conservative majority, maybe around 20 seats, which is also what some of the most sophisticated pollsters have said.

David Miliband: Who do you predict will win the UK elections?

I'm very careful about predictions, especially about the future, as someone famously said. The polls are pretty clear that this has been a dismal campaign, an unpopularity contest in all sorts of ways in which the lesser of two evils is perceived by the voters to be a conservative vote. So, the polls are giving a range of possibilities from a hung parliament right through to a large conservative majority. Obviously, I don't know who's going to win. My tour around the country last week gave me a real sense, a yearning really, for a better choice, for better choices, for more fronting up by the parties, because both parties have done a job of avoiding some of the hardest choices. And so, I predict that whoever wins, there are some very difficult choices ahead. And the sooner that politics is about what you're asking for as well as what you're offering. As Tawney said, after Labour lost the 1931 election, "we offered too much and asked too little." The sooner politics is about shared endeavor, the better for the country.

After a months-long investigation into whether President Donald Trump pressured Ukraine's president into investigating his political rivals in order to boost his reelection prospects in 2020, House Democrats brought two articles of impeachment against him, charging him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Click here for our GZERO guide to what comes next.

In the meantime, imagine for a moment that you are now Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority leader and senior member of Donald Trump's Republican Party. You've got big choices to make.

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Trump gets his deal – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that Democrats will back the USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Crucially, the bill will also have support from the nation's largest labor union. This is a major political victory for President Trump, who promised he would close this deal, but it's also good for Pelosi: it shows that the Democrats' House majority can still accomplish big things even as it impeaches the president. But with the speed of the Washington news cycle these days, we're watching to see if anyone is still talking about USMCA three days after it's signed.

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