GZERO Media logo

To Keep You Up At Night: Top Risks 2018

To Keep You Up At Night: Top Risks 2018

The United States is deliberately narrowing its role in the world. Bold new contenders are looking to fill the gap. Popular trust in institutions is plummeting. New technologies are at the heart of international tensions and conflict. What could possibly go wrong?


Every January, our parent company Eurasia Group lists the ten biggest global risks for the coming year, as well as a few red herrings that you may not need to worry about. You can read the whole report here, but if you want a shortcut to geopolitical anxiety, we’ve got you covered:

#1 China loves a vacuum: Trump’s “America First” approach seeks to reduce America’s global role and responsibilities precisely as China is now angling to become a global superpower itself. In trade, technology, and even soft power competition — fresh friction between the world’s two largest economies will ripple across all sectors and regions this year.

#2 Accidents: There hasn’t been a major geopolitical crisis since 9/11, but in a fragmenting world without common understandings or leadership, 2018 could be the year something goes badly wrong: that might be a major cyberattack on critical infrastructure, a military miscalculation between rival powers in Syria, a misstep in North Korea, or… you tell us what worries you. We’re here for you.

#3 Global tech cold war: Mastery of artificial intelligence and big data will be essential for any 21st century global power — and so a new “space race” has begun as countries seek to dominate these technologies. The main event? China’s rigorous state-driven model versus the decentralized innovation of America’s powerful private sector. It’s on. Alexa’s not sure what her mother tongue will be in ten years’ time.

#4 Mexico: NAFTA hangs in the balance. Trump keeps needling Mexico about that wall. Rising anti-US sentiment has helped make anti-establishment candidate Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador the frontrunner for July’s presidential election. His victory would usher in a period of profound political and economic uncertainty for Latin America’s second largest economy.

#5 US-Iran relations: Trump and the Mullahs — little love lost. The US will work harder this year to crush Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East, raising the stakes in a region already riven by proxy conflicts between Tehran and US-ally Saudi Arabia. What’s more, the possible collapse of the Iran nuclear agreement could open the way to direct military confrontation with Iran.

#6 The erosion of institutions: Across the developed world, popular trust in media and government institutions is falling, undermining governance, accelerating anti-establishment sentiment, and increasing the prospect of unpredictable social and political outcomes.

#7 Protectionism 2.0: A fresh form of protectionism is targeting “new” sectors of the economy like IP and cross-border data flows, while implementing “behind the border” barriers to free trade and investment. With no common rules here — or anyone leading the charge for greater cooperation — the global landscape of trade rules is turning into a confusing and costly kaleidoscope.

#8 United Kingdom: So where’s the new UK-EU border going to be? That’s just one of many unresolved Brexit issues. Stalled or bungled negotiations could cost UK Prime Minister Theresa May her job. And if that happens, buckle up for a wild ride in the UK this year, as avowed socialist Jeremy Corbyn could be within striking distance of the premiership.

#9 Identity politics in southern Asia: Nationalism rocked Europe and the US in 2017, and in 2018 it’ll come to play in Asia. Southeast Asia will see rising sectarian and anti-Chinese tensions, while in India Hindu nationalism and anti-secularism are gaining fresh traction. Will these ideas stoke divisions in a way that undermines the region’s stellar economic and political progress?

#10 Africa’s security: For many years, the continent’s economic success stories such as Cote d’Ivoire, Nigeria, Kenya, and Ethiopia, have been reasonably insulated from the negative impacts of volatility elsewhere in the region. But this year, domestic political challenges and sparser external support will make them more vulnerable, in particular to the impact of militancy and transnational terrorist groups.

Khant Thaw Htoo is a young engineer who works in Eni's Sakura Tower office in the heart of Yangon. As an HSE engineer, he monitors the safety and environmental impact of onshore and offshore operations. He also looks out for his parents' well-being, in keeping with Myanmar's traditions.

Learn more about Khant in the final episode of the Faces of Eni series, which focuses on Eni's employees around the world.

On his first day as president, Joe Biden signed a remarkable series of executive orders. Boom! The US rejoins the Paris Climate Accord. Bang! The United States rejoins the World Health Organization. Pow! No more ban on immigration from many Muslim-majority countries. Biden's press secretary reminded reporters later in the day that all these orders merely begin complex processes that take time, but the impact is still dramatic.

If you lead a country allied with the US, or you're simply hoping for some specific commitment or clear and credible statement of purpose from the US government, you might feel a little dizzy today. The sight of an American president (Barack Obama) signing his name, of the next president (Donald Trump) erasing that name from the same legislation/bill, and then the following president (Biden) signing it back into law again will raise deep concerns over the long-term reliability of the world's still-most-powerful nation.

More Show less

"There needs to be a dramatic and deep reduction in the amount of debt on the poorest countries. That's clear." As the world's poorest nations struggle to recover from a devastating pandemic, World Bank President David Malpass argues that freeing them of much of their debt will be key. His conversation with Ian Bremmer is part of the latest episode of GZERO World.

Listen: Renowned tech journalist Kara Swisher has no qualms about saying that social media companies bear responsibility for the January 6th pro-Trump riots at the Capitol and will likely be complicit in the civil unrest that may continue well into Biden's presidency. It's no surprise, she argues, that the online rage that platforms like Facebook and Twitter intentionally foment translated into real-life violence. But if Silicon Valley's current role in our national discourse is untenable, how can the US government rein it in? That, it turns out, is a bit more complicated. Swisher joins Ian Bremmer on our podcast.

Ian Bremmer discusses the World In (more than) 60 Seconds:

Biden's first scheduled call with a world leader will be with Canada's Justin Trudeau. What's going on with the Keystone Pipeline?

Well, Biden said that that's it. Executive order, one of the first is that he will stop any construction or development of the Keystone Pipeline. This is of course an oil pipeline that would allow further oil sands oil to come to the United States. The infrastructure is significantly overstretched, it's led to backlogs, inefficiency, accidents, all the rest, but it also facilitates more energy development and keeps prices comparatively down if you get it done. So, there are lots of reasons why the energy sector in Canada wants it. Having said all of that, Trudeau, even though he's been a supporter of Keystone XL, let's keep in mind that he did not win support in Alberta, which is where the big energy patch in Canada is located. This is a real problem for the government of Alberta, Canada is a very decentralized federal government, even more so than the United States. The premier of Alberta is immensely unhappy with Biden right now, they've taken a $1.5 billion equity stake in the project. I expect there will actually be litigation against the United States by the government of Alberta. But Trudeau is quite happy with Biden, his relationship was Trump was always walking on eggshells. The USMCA in negotiations ultimately successful but were very challenging for the Canadians, so too with the way Trump engaged in relations on China. All of this, the fact that Trump left the nuclear agreement with Iran, the Paris Climate Accords, WHO, all of that is stuff that Trudeau strongly opposed. He's going to be much more comfortable with this relationship. He's delighted that the first call from Biden is to him. And it certainly creates a level of normalcy in the US-Canada relationship that is very much appreciated by our neighbors to the North.

More Show less
The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

GZEROMEDIA

Subscribe to GZERO Media's Newsletter: Signal