Watching and Ignoring

WHAT WE’RE WATCHING

Mike Pompeo — To succeed, a nation’s top diplomat needs three things: an ability to persuade others he speaks for the boss, the freedom to accomplish the boss’s goals in his/her own way, and good working relationships with a strong support staff. Fired US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson finished 0 for 3. No one he met during his brief tenure could believe he spoke for Trump, the president never gave him room to work, he was dogged by criticism that he ignored senior staff, and a stunning number of State Department jobs have become or remain vacant. Will Mike Pompeo succeed where Tillerson failed?


South African Land — The investor class was happy to see Cyril Ramaphosa win control of the African National Congress in December and replace Jacob Zuma as South Africa’s president last month. It was less happy when South Africa’s parliament approved legislation on February 27 that allows government to address inequality by confiscating and redistributing land without compensation. That move raised the specter again that South Africa might follow Zimbabwe down the path to racial violence and economic ruin. There’s reason to believe Ramaphosa is just giving the left wing of his party something they want in order to preserve ANC unity ahead of elections next year, and that the policy will be used mainly to redistribute unused land to black farmers. But the hostile rhetoric from South Africa’s left and from right-wing commentators in South Africa, Britain, and the US is worrisome and worth watching.

A Big Bolivian Flag — On Monday, lawyers representing Chile and Bolivia will appear before the International Court of Justice to argue about whether Bolivia should have a coastline. Bolivia lost direct access to the sea following the War of the Pacific in the late 19th century, but the country has never given up the fight to regain that land from Chile. (It still has a navy.) To cheer on the lawyers, the country has produced a 124-mile long bright blue “flag of maritime revindication.” Yes, the flag, unfurled along a highway, really is 124 miles long. We’re watching this story not because we want to see if this patriotic show can help Bolivian President Evo Morales overcome popular resistance to a fourth presidential term, but just because that’s a really big flag.

WHAT WE’RE IGNORING

Political rebranding in France — In 2015, France’s center-right party formally known as the Union for a Popular Movement changed its name to Les Republicains, boosting its candidate to a third-place finish in last year’s presidential election. Now Marine Le Pen has proposed changing the name of the far-right Front National to Rassemblement National (“National Rally”) to improve its image because, she says, the name “Front National” has become a “psychological barrier” for voters. Maybe she should change the party’s name to “Le Pen.”

Stormy Daniels — The adult film star who alleges an “affair” with President Trump is set to launch a media blitz, and the early word is that parts of her story will be particularly unsavory. We’re ignoring this story because, even if it’s deeply embarrassing for Trump, and even if an exchange of cash is found to have violated election laws, the political impact (and impeachment risk) would be greater if it told a significant number of voters something they don’t already suspect about the president. The White House will watch the projected path of this Storm, but we have eyes only for Special Counsel Robert Mueller — and what he does and does not find.

The Costco Doomsday Kit — Still worried about Kim Jong-un or Putin’s invincible zig-zagging missile? Discount retailer Costco is now selling a food kit that can help you survive “an emergency or natural disaster.” For just $5,999.99, you can have enough freeze-dried broccoli, green beans, corn, dehydrated apples, egg noodles, quick oats, cornmeal, elbow macaroni, potato chunks, instant lentils, instant black beans, freeze-dried banana slices, blueberries, and carrots to feed four people for one year. It’s a wonderful opportunity to face End Times on a full stomach. More good news: You won’t have to share with the neighbors, because the kit is “packaged discreetly for privacy in shipping.” But I’m ignoring this product because the package weighs 1,800 pounds, and I already have a bad back.

Advancing global money movement for everyone, everywhere

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Even with innovations in fintech and digital payments, roadblocks related to basic infrastructure like electricity and internet connectivity still prevent many migrant workers from being able to transfer money to their families back home with a truly digital end-to-end flow. While more workers can send money digitally today, the majority of people still receive funds in cash. Read more about why public-private partnerships are key to advancing the future of global money movement and why it matters from experts at the Visa Economic Empowerment Institute.

The European Union is, for better or worse, the most ambitious experiment in human history in institutionalized multinational cooperation. Its success depends on the willingness of its members to abide by its rules.

In recent years, the populist-nationalist governments of former Communist bloc members Hungary and Poland have flouted some of those rules in order to boost their own popularity with citizens suspicious of the EU's liberal values on issues like immigration and minority rights. In response, the EU has scolded these "illiberal" governments and threatened forceful action – so far without much effect.

The fight between EU institutions and Poland and Hungary has escalated.

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Ian Bremmer is joined on GZERO World by artificial intelligence scientists Kai-fu Lee, who recently wrote about how AI will change the world over the next two decades, precisely to talk about AI's future. After this week's Facebook debacle, how can we align interest to regulate AI-driven algorithms? Will AI steal all our jobs? And what should we do to learn from AI to improve our lives before it gets smarter than us?

Watch this episode of GZERO World with Ian Bremmer: Is a robot coming for your job? Kai-fu Lee explains AI

US elections officials have always persuaded losing candidates that they've, ahem, lost. Now it's worse because there's a new paradigm, according to former DHS and Election Assistance Commission official Matt Masterson, policy fellow with the Stanford Internet Observatory. Candidates that won't accept defeat regardless of the margin or evidence of fraud, he says, are undermining trust in the system — and election officials are ill-equipped to deal with this problem.

Matt Masterson made these remarks during a live Global Stage event, Infodemic: defending democracy from disinformation. Watch the full event here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage/virtual-events/disinformation-is-a-big-problem-what-can-we-do-about-it

Who's most responsible for spreading misinformation online? For Ginny Badanes, senior director for Democracy Forward at Microsoft, the problem starts with those who create it, yet ultimately governments, companies and individuals all share the burden. And she's more interested in what we can do to respond.

Ginny Badanes spoke at a live Global Stage event, Infodemic: defending democracy from disinformation. Watch the full event here: https://www.gzeromedia.com/global-stage/virtual-events/disinformation-is-a-big-problem-what-can-we-do-about-it

Some of the worst sectarian clashes since Lebanon's 15-year civil war (1975-1990) broke out in Beirut this week between supporters of Hezbollah and Amal, both Shiite political parties, and Christian, far-right Lebanese Forces. Shiite protesters were rallying against the state probe into the Beirut port blast, which occurred last year. They say authorities were singling out Shiite politicians for questioning and blame. In this video, watch Ian Bremmer's conversation with Lebanese journalist and author Kim Ghattas on GZW talking about the future of Lebanese politics and sectarianism in the county after the after the blast. It was originally published on August 19, 2020.

In Lebanon, "a majority (are) united in wanting a different future, a future that is non-sectarian, that is non-corrupt, that provides prosperity, justice, dignity for people," journalist Kim Ghattas told Ian Bremmer on GZERO World.

In this interview, Ghattas discusses the opportunity that could arise from the tragedy of the Beirut explosion which killed 200 and injured thousands more. The Lebanese are "fed up" with the militant group Hezbollah, she tells Bremmer, and want to strive for a government that better resembles the diversity and cosmopolitan nature of its citizens.

Watch the GZERO World episode: Lebanon Post-Blast: Rage in the Streets of Beirut.

Some of the worst sectarian clashes since Lebanon's 15-year civil war (1975-1990) broke out in Beirut this week between supporters of Hezbollah and Amal, both Shiite political parties, and Christian, far-right Lebanese Forces. Shiite protesters were rallying against the state probe into the Beirut port blast, which occurred last year. They say authorities were singling out Shiite politicians for questioning and blame. Below is our original piece on the Beirut port explosions published on August 5, 2020.


The twin explosions at Beirut's port on Tuesday were so powerful that the aftershocks reverberated as far as the Eastern Mediterranean island of Cyprus, 150 miles away. The specter of fire and smoke was such that many suggested on social media that Beirut had experienced a nuclear blast.

In the days ahead, more details will come to light about why a deadly cache of materials was haphazardly stashed at a port warehouse, and why Lebanon's government failed to secure the site. So, what comes next for crisis-ridden Lebanon?

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Jon Lieber, head of Eurasia Group's coverage of political and policy developments in Washington, shares insights on US politics:

What does it actually mean to cut $1 trillion from the Democrats' $3.5 trillion social spending bill?

President Biden has proposed one of the most ambitious expansions of federal spending in recent memory. If he gets everything he wants, it would probably be the largest expansion of government since the Great Society, but he's not going to get everything he wants. Democrats have basically said they cannot do all $3.5 trillion in spending. They're probably going to end up around $2 trillion. So what gets cut? Well, we don't know yet. There's kind of two ways to go about this. They could either cut the number of programs that have been proposed, doing fewer things with more money on a permanent basis, or they could try to do more things, each program getting less money and potentially doing them on a temporary basis. So, a future Congress would have to extend it. What does this mean for you? Well, a lot of the money in here is designed to go directly to families, either in the form of cash payments, through the tax code, the Child Tax Credit and the Earned Income Tax Credit, or subsidies for things like child care, early childhood education, and community college. And if you cut these things back, it means less money is going to go out the door to the American people. It also means less tax increases to finance it. So the implications of what's being proposed could actually end up being a big deal for a lot of Americans who would qualify for benefits under these new programs.

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