Should you be concerned about Trump's "locked and loaded" tweet?

Number one: President Trump says he's "locked and loaded" after the attacks on Saudi oil fields. How concerned are you?


Well, very concerned. I think the U.S. economy can certainly withstand the initial oil price shock from the attacks. But a full-scale war with Iran is an entirely different ballgame. Very destabilizing to the region, destabilizing the energy markets and potentially a hit to the U.S. economy that is already showing some signs of slowing down. So, very worrisome.


Number two: How nervous should Brett Kavanaugh be about the latest allegations?


Well, they're certainly not helpful to the Supreme Court Justice. Somewhat problematic in that the New York Times has updated their piece to suggest that the accuser in this case does not remember the incident. I don't not think it leads to impeachment hearings against Kavanaugh but not good for him obviously.


Final question: Any surprises out of the Democratic debate last week?


Well, I continue to be surprised that Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are not engaging one another extensively at all. At some point, they'll have to if one or the other wants to emerge as the true liberal alternative to Joe Biden or some of the other moderate candidates. I haven't done it yet. But there will be a showdown between Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.

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How did an entire country's media spread false news for a night?

Fascinating case study in France over the weekend. For less than a day, we thought that the most wanted men in the country had been caught in Scotland. Turned out to be a case of mistaken identity. The so-called news was actually reported quite carefully at first, on Friday night with careful words. But the language quickly moved from conditional to categorical and therefore, to misinformation through human error. What you have here is the tension between being first and being right, which has always been present in journalism but is more and more as you have these 24 hour news channels, social media, and the incredible economic pressure on news sites that are advertising based and therefore click based.

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Donald Trump announced a fresh "phase 1" trade deal with China last week, part of his ongoing bid to reduce the United States' huge trade deficit with China. The US has been buying more from China than China buys from the US for decades, but since coming into office Trump has made reducing that deficit central to his "America First" agenda. It's not easy to do. Consider that in 2018, after two full years of the Trump administration, the trade deficit with China actually swelled to its highest level since the Clinton years. That's because many perfectly healthy economic factors contribute to a trade deficit: stronger economic growth under Trump has meant more demand for foreign goods, so as long as the economy keeps humming along, it will be hard for Trump to reduce the deficit. Likewise, the strong US dollar makes foreign goods cheaper for US consumers to import, while China's own economic slowdown in 2018 decreased Chinese demand for American goods. For a historical perspective on all of this, here's a look at how the US-China trade balance has developed under each US president going back to 1993.

On Friday, we detailed the main arguments for and against President Trump's decision to withdraw US troops from a pocket of northern Syria where their presence had protected Washington's Kurdish allies against an attack from Turkey. We then asked Signal readers to let us know what they thought.

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Dangerous Chaos in Syria – Turkey's military move into northern Syria had two stated goals: to push Kurdish fighters inside Syria further from Turkey's border and to create a "safe zone" inside Syria in which Turkey could place up to two million Syrian refugees currently living in camps inside Turkey. But the Kurds have now allied with Syria's army, which is backed by Russia, and these forces are now moving north into that same territory toward Turkish troops and Arab militias backed by Ankara. Meanwhile, large numbers of ISIS fighters and their families have escaped prisons where Kurds had held them captive. Turkey's President Erdogan vows to press ahead with his operation until "ultimate victory is achieved." Pandora's Box is now wide open.

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