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What We’re Watching: UN backs US plan for Gaza, Trump to sell fighter jets to Saudi, Zelensky seeks funds with money well running dry
UN Security Council members vote on a draft resolution to Authorize an International Stabilization Force in Gaza authored by the US at UN Headquarters in New York, NY on November 17, 2025.
UN Security council approves Trump plan for Gaza
The resolution lends international legitimacy to a multi-national peacekeeping force and US President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace. Not everyone loves it. Russia and China abstained, saying the resolution gives too much leeway to the US to shape Gaza’s future. Israel, meanwhile, objected to language gesturing towards a possible future Palestinian state. Hamas rejected the resolution outright and said it refuses to disarm. That’s still the hard reality on the ground: how many countries, UN resolution or not, will be willing to send their troops into a firefight with Hamas?
Trump says he’ll sell F-35s to Saudi Arabia as crown prince arrives
Ahead of Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman’s visit to the White House today, Trump announced Monday that he would sell F-35 fighter planes to the Gulf state. If fully approved, Saudi Arabia would be only the second country in the Middle East – after Israel – to successfully purchase these jets. Several other deals are set to be announced, too, including on civilian nuclear infrastructure, artificial intelligence, and even hotels, bringing the two oil-producing states closer together. Do these deals remove the incentives for Saudi to join the Abraham Accords? Not necessarily – they still would love access to Israeli tech – but it does mean they’re in less of a rush.
Ukraine is on the hunt for more funds and peace talks
Ukraine desperately needs more funds, and Europe is at an impasse on how to refill its coffers. Belgium blocked a loan plan that would use the $160 billion of Russia’s central bank assets to fund Ukraine, fearing it could be on the hook if Russia demanded its money back or retaliated against Euroclear, the Belgian central securities depository where the funds are held. While the EU is looking for ways to allay Brussels’s worries, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky is turning to Spain and Turkey for funds and peace deals: Madrid announced a $1.16-billion aid package after meeting with Zelensky, who is now heading to Turkey, where he will try to “reinvigorate” peace talks with Russia.Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney and Minister of Finance Francois-Philippe Champagne applaud after a confidence vote on the federal budget passes in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada November 17, 2025.
Canada’s six-month old minority government survived a de facto confidence vote on its first budget yesterday, avoiding the possibility of a Christmas election. Carney now has a mandate to run the second-highest deficit in Canadian history, at CA$78.3 billion, in order to implement wide-ranging industrial policy that includes infrastructure, resource development, and defense. It’s a blow for the opposition parties, most notably the Conservatives, whose leader Pierre Poilievre is facing a leadership review vote by his party at its annual convention in January.
What will the budget mean for Canada? Over the next five years, the government will invest CA$115 billion in infrastructure spending, including electricity-grid upgrades and high-speed rail, as well as in major projects, including port infrastructure, LNG plants, and to support critical minerals development projects that could challenge China’s dominance in the sector. It will spend CA$25 billion on housing, a major election issue, as well as an extra CA$81.8 billion on defense. A “Buy Canadian” procurement regime will steer federal contracts toward domestic suppliers for all these engagements.
But the plan comes with an average CA$64.3 billion annual deficit for the next four years, double what had been projected by the previous government. According to the Fitch ratings agency, Canada’s general government-debt-to-GDP ratio will rise to 91.8% in 2026 and 98.5% in 2027, compared with 88.6% in 2024 and nearly double its AA rating median of 49.6%. To counter the fiscal pressure, the budget promises to cut 10% of public service jobs to balance the government’s operating expenditures, but capital spending will still have Ottawa in the red.
Those factors made the budget unpalatable to both the right-wing Conservatives and the left-wing New Democrats while two other smaller parties, the Bloc Quebecois and the Greens, refused to support it due to its failure to increase Old Age security payments and its removal of the federal emissions cap on Canada’s oil and gas industry.
So then how did the budget pass? Carney’s government was three seats shy of a majority when the bill was introduced on Nov. 4. That same day, however, a Conservative MP, Chris d’Entremont, crossed the floor to the Liberals, and a day later, another Conservative, Matt Jeneroux, announced he would resign his seat in the spring, ostensibly for family reasons, amid rumours that he was also considering joining the government.
That left Carney still in need of two crucial votes, or a combination of votes and abstentions. He got the support of Elisabeth May, leader of the Green Party, in exchange for a promise to meet Canada’s climate targets in the Paris Agreement to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 40-45% below 2005 levels by 2030, though it is not clear how that will be achieved with the new energy investments in the budget. Four opposition MPs then abstained, two each from the Conservatives (Jeneroux, and another with serious health issues) and the New Democrats (one whose local mayors and Indigenous leaders did not want an election, and another who saw benefits in the budget for her riding). This allowed the budget to pass by a vote of 170 to 168.
Where does this leave the opposition? The drama has weakened Conservative leader Poilievre. Many MPs were already unhappy with the party’s election defeat in April, blaming Poilievre for failing to pivot to the issue of opposing US President Donald Trump. The Conservative leader also lost his own seat and had to win a seat in a by-election in order to return to Parliament in September.
But the biggest problem in the Conservative Party is governance. In the wake of the budget floor crossing, Poilievre and his advisors reportedly threatened MPs to prevent further defections, leading one to liken their style to that of “the Sopranos”. This could spell trouble for Poilievre at an upcoming Conservative leadership review in January, required when the party loses an election: a score under 80% could severely undermine his ability to remain leader.
At the other end of the political spectrum, the NDP are fighting for relevance after the 2025 election reduced them to seven seats and saw their leader resign. The party is voting to choose a new leader in March 2026, making the prospect of an election now without a permanent leader an unappealing prospect. However, the decision by two members to abstain revives bitter memories of the party’s deal to prop up the previous Liberal government, which angered many members and became a factor in the New Democrats’ defeat.
How stable is the government?
With the budget passed, the Liberals don’t need to worry about another confidence vote until the fall of 2026. But nothing prevents the government from going to the polls at any time, if it thinks it could be to its advantage. The longest a government can stay in power in Canada is five years, but the average lifespan of a government without a locked-in majority of Parliament is about two years. The timing of the next election could hinge on many factors, including striking a trade deal with Trump, the state of the Canadian economy, and the strength – or weakness - of opposition leaders.
Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi holds talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Gyeongju, South Korea, on Oct. 31, 2025.
650,000: Roughly 650,000 Chinese tourists visited Japan in September, but those levels are under threat amid a diplomatic rift between the two countries. Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi suggested that her country would intervene if China attacks Taiwan, prompting Beijing to cancel tour groups to Japan and ban employees of state-owned enterprises from traveling there.
2: Two Ukrainian men, who are believed to have been working with Russia, have been identified as the culprits behind the rail sabotage attacks in Poland over the weekend. The men are believed to have been recruited by Russian intelligence.
18: A Georgian man who hatched a plan to feed poisoned candy to Jewish children in New York City pleaded guilty on Monday to soliciting hate crimes. Prosecutors will seek an 18-year jail sentence. The man led a Russian & Ukrainian neo-Nazi group that has sought to sow violence worldwide.
2,000: The South African government announced that it will block the arrival of any further flights of Palestinians after hundreds arrived by air in recent weeks. Passengers said they paid $2,000 per ticket to an aid agency offering them a route out of the country, but South African Foreign Minister Ronald Lamola denounced the flights as part of “a broader agenda to remove Palestinians from Palestine.”
What We’re Watching: Anti-graft protests resurface in the Philippines, Polish railway hit, Trump flips on Epstein files vote
Members of the religious group Iglesia ni Cristo (Church of Christ) wave their hands during the first of a three-day anti-corruption protest at the Quirino Grandstand, Manila, Philippines, November 16, 2025.
Anti-graft protests restart in the Philippines, with help of a church
More than 200,000 people took to the streets of Manila, the Philippine capital, on Monday to protest against suspected corruption in flood-control projects. A day prior, a protestant megachurch organized a rally in the Catholic-majority country of 114 million people. These aren’t the first anti-graft demonstrations in the Southeast Asian nation this fall: there were violent protests in September after a government audit showed that the government had spent billions of dollars over the last few years on substandard or non-existent projects. A pair of typhoons also ripped through the country in recent weeks, possibly adding more fuel to the fire. Protest leaders have planned another rally later this month.
Polish railway attacked
In Poland, an explosion damaged a train line that connects Warsaw to Ukraine. The line has been used to transport aid and weapons to Ukraine, and while the investigation is ongoing, Poland’s government has said that it was a “highly probable” act of sabotage by Russia. Russia has targeted Poland for being an aid hub for Ukraine – seemingly carrying out cyber attacks, arson, and other acts of sabotage since the start of the war. If Poland uncovers the attack was carried out by Moscow, it will mark an escalation of the conflict.
Trump does U-turn on Epstein files
After piling pressure on lawmakers to halt the release of the US Justice Department files on the late sex offender Jeffrey Epstein, President Donald Trump reversed course and said Congress should release the files. Trump said he had “nothing to hide.” It was a remarkable about-face, and showed that congressional Republicans can still press the president – it has often been the other way around since the former real estate mogul came to Washington. GOP lawmakers will hope the vote reassures voters – including the MAGA base – ahead of next year’s midterms that they are serious about investigating the Epstein case. There are still doubts over whether the bill will come to pass: The House will bring it up this week, but it remains an open question whether the Senate votes on it.Hard Numbers: Bangladesh’s ex-PM sentenced to death, Foreign student enrollment in US plummets, Australian schools shut over asbestos, & more
People celebrate the court's verdict after Bangladesh's fugitive former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina is found guilty and sentenced to death in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on November 17, 2025. The International Crimes Tribunal on November 17 sentences fugitive former Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina to death for crimes against humanity in a murder case of the July uprising.
1,400: Sheikh Hasina, Bangladesh’s ousted prime minister, was sentenced to death on Monday for her crackdown on student-led protests last year. While Hasina is currently safely living in exile in India, the decision was celebrated by the families of the 1,400 people the UN estimates were killed during the uprisings.
17%: The number of international students enrolling in American universities fell 17% this fall. The Trump administration has tried to limit the amount of foreign students that come to US schools, and has revoked visas of thousands of foreign students – and even arrested others – who have expressed views that are critical of the US or its allies.
70: The Australian Capital Territory government shut 70 schools in the state on Monday over fears that a colored play sand contained asbestos. Schools in other states also shut. Asbestos contractors are working to clear the schools.
51%: Hamas’ popularity in Gaza rose to 51%, per an October poll from the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, up eight points from a prior survey in May. Security appears to be the main reason for this rise, as Gazans have credited the group with cutting crime and looting. However, Hamas’ rising popularity may hurt US-led efforts to disarm the militant group.
30%: No candidate received a majority in Chile’s elections on Sunday, but right-wing José Antonio Kast is the favorite to win in a run-off in December against Communist party candidate Jeannette Jara. While Jara won slightly more of the vote – 26% compared to Kast’s 24% – the other right-wing candidates took 30% of the vote, signaling that the electorate is primed for a rightward shift.Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed Bin Salman reacts next to US President Donald Trump during the Saudi-U.S. Investment Forum, in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, on May 13, 2025.
For the first time in seven years, Saudi Crown Prince Mohammad bin Salman is returning to Washington, DC, this week. While crude oil has traditionally pulled the two countries close together, it is now the great power-chess game between the US and China that is making them join forces.
MBS, as the de-facto Saudi leader is known, and US President Donald Trump have much to discuss when it comes to peace in the Middle East. The chances of Saudi Arabia recognizing Israel by joining the Abraham Accords are slim. Nonetheless, defense agreements will be on the table, as Saudi Arabia seeks to bolster its protections in what has been a tumultuous year in the region.
The US-Saudi relationship has come full circle since the crown prince’s last visit in 2018. Since then, there was the killing of Washington Post journalist Jamal Khashoggi – reportedly sanctioned by the crown prince – at a Saudi consulate in Turkey, which created major tensions. Those were exacerbated after Riyadh got upset with Washington when it refused to respond to the 2019 Houthi attack on Saudi oil facilities. Then, during the 2020 campaign, Joe Biden suggested Saudi Arabia should be a “pariah.” Biden then sought to ease tensions in 2022, as he wanted Riyadh to pump more oil to alleviate high inflation rates. And now the AI race between the US and China has pushed Riyadh and Washington closer together.
“[Khashoggi’s death] hung like a pall over MBS reputation in the United States,” Hussein Ibish, a senior resident scholar at the Arab Gulf States Initiative in Washington, told GZERO. “Time has worn away the sting a little bit.”
The Middle East has also changed dramatically over the past seven years. Israel was locked in a brutal war with Hamas for the past two years, with a fragile ceasefire keeping the peace for now. More Arab nations are concerned about the conflict spilling over, too, especially after Israel bombed Qatar in a failed bid to kill Hamas leaders. Meanwhile, the influence of Saudi’s top enemy, Iran, has diminished, as its proxies in the region – the Assad regime in Syria, Hezbollah in Lebanon, and Hamas in Gaza – have all been hobbled or even removed.
“Iran is no longer the strategic threat that it was seven years ago,” Ibish said. “[But] there is still this need on the part of Saudi Arabia for American security guarantees.”
So what will Trump and bin Salman discuss? First and foremost for the crown prince will be defense. There are two aspects to this: firstly, Saudi wants a defense agreement akin to what the US signed with Qatar, ensuring that the US will defend the Gulf state in case of attack. Secondly, the Saudis want to buy F-35 planes from the US – Israel is the only Middle East country that has successfully negotiated and executed a purchase agreement of F-35s.
“The US public and US government and Trump have been a little bit more critical of Israel,” Alia Awadallah, who was a Pentagon official during Biden’s term in office, told GZERO, suggesting that the US may be willing to sell to a country other than Israel. “[Saudi Arabia] will be trying to assess whether it’s actually realistic to get that type of sale through both the White House, but also through Congress, which would have to approve it.”
The US is sure to bring up something that has layed tantalizingly out of reach: the Abraham Accords. Trump is reportedly still pressing MBS to recognize Israel and join the Accords, arguing that the peace he successfully brokered in Gaza should be enough to prompt Riyadh to do so. But the crown prince has repeatedly said that he wouldn’t do this until Israel recognizes a Palestinian state, so the chances of him signing the accords on this trip are close to null.
“At a minimum, this requires phase two of the Gaza ceasefire being implemented, and Israeli assurances regarding the Palestinian right of self determination,” said Eurasia Group’s Middle East Director Firas Maksad. “And we’re not there yet.”
If there’s no agreement on the Accords, there’s likely to be more on artificial intelligence. It is this area – rather than oil – that is pushing the two countries closer together, per Maksad. Trump’s visit to Riyadh in May was all about AI, with Saudi firms pledging billions of dollars in investments. In return, Riyadh wants access to items like Nvidia’s AI chips for its data centers. Meanwhile the US wants to see those incoming investments, while ensuring that Saudi secures rights to critical minerals in Africa, grants US access to them, and blocks China from getting them. This trip will be a chance to firm up these AI ties.
“Although the headlines continue to be animated by the prospect of normalization between Israel and Saudi Arabia… that is the wrong lens to be looking at things,” said Maksad. “This [US-Saudi] relationship is increasingly shaped by great power competitions, particularly US-China dynamics, rather than anything specific to the region and the Arab-Israeli conflict.”
What We’re Watching: Epstein files on the US House floor, Ukraine hits Russia where it hurts, RSF consolidated its grip on Darfur
U.S. President Donald Trump shakes hands with U.S. House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-LA) after signing the funding bill to end the U.S. government shutdown, at the White House in Washington, D.C., U.S., November 12, 2025.
The US House set to vote to release Epstein files
The House of Representatives will vote next week to compel the Justice Department to release the Epstein files, after a trove of documents this week further linked President Donald Trump with the late sex offender. Trump and House Speaker Mike Johnson have opposed the bill, but are braced for scores of their party to vote for the release – potentially over 100, according to Politico. Their defections signal that representatives fear being seen as implicated in a cover up could come back to bite them ahead of 2026 Midterm elections. Polling shows that 67% of Republicans agree that the administration should release all the documents. However, even if the bill does pass, it is unlikely to make it out of the GOP-controlled Senate, or get the White House signature it needs to become law.
For Ukraine, is offense the best form of defense?
Ukraine is on the verge of losing another town in the eastern part of the country, and at a great cost, raising questions over whether it should spend so much defending these areas. What’s more, Russia hit several residential towers in Kyiv last night. But Ukraine did have a response, using drones and cruise missiles to strike Russia’s Novorossiysk port, which sits on the Black Sea, and halt exports of 2% of the whole world’s oil supply. Fittingly, crude prices rose 2% as a result. With Ukraine struggling to hold onto towns out east, is a better option to halt Russia a continuation of strikes deep inside enemy territory?
World’s worst war is about to get even worse
Sudan’s horrific civil war is set for a fresh escalation as the paramilitary forces battling the army look to open a new front. The Rapid Support Forces, having consolidated power in the West and the South – where they are accused of recent mass killings and acts of genocide – are now eyeing an eastward push to the Kordofan region. Sudan’s civil war, now in its third year, has already displaced at least 13 million people, forcing some four million into neighboring countries. Estimates of the death toll run to 400,000. The US yesterday called for an arms embargo against the RSF, but the effect is unclear: a recent Washington-brokered ceasefire disintegrated within days.