Trending Now
We have updated our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use for Eurasia Group and its affiliates, including GZERO Media, to clarify the types of data we collect, how we collect it, how we use data and with whom we share data. By using our website you consent to our Terms and Conditions and Privacy Policy, including the transfer of your personal data to the United States from your country of residence, and our use of cookies described in our Cookie Policy.
News
What We’re Watching: Some Americans head to the polls, German U-turn on Syrian asylum policy, Russia may have to find new oil buyers
Democratic candidate for New York City mayor, Zohran Mamdani, votes in the New York City mayoral election at a polling site at the Frank Sinatra School of the Arts High School in Astoria, Queens borough of New York City, USA, on November 4, 2025.
It’s Election Day in the United States
It’s the first Tuesday after Nov. 1, which means it’s US election day. Key ballots to watch include the mayoral race in New York City – where democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani is poised to pull off an upset that will echo into national level politics – as well as state Supreme Court races in Pennsylvania, and ballot initiatives on gerrymandering in California. Don’t forget about the New Jersey governor election either, where GOP nominee Jack Ciattarelli is looking to eke out a victory against Democratic nominee Mikie Sherrill. New Jersey was once reliably blue but has been getting more purple in recent years: in 2020 Joe Biden won it by 17 points, but Donald Trump lost by just four last year.
Germany to end asylum for Syrians
German Chancellor Friedrich Merz says Syrians no longer have grounds for political asylum in his country now that the Syrian civil war is over. Merz called for a repatriation program to ease burdens on Germany and accelerate the rebuilding of Syria, though the United Nations warns Syria still isn’t ready to absorb a large population of returnees. It was exactly ten years ago that Chancellor Angela Merkel declared “Wir schaffen das” (we can do it), establishing a generous asylum policy that welcomed in more than a million Syrians fleeing their country’s horrific civil war. A decade later, with the war over and the far right surging on anti-immigrant backlash, Merz is now saying, “Wir schaffen das nicht.”
Is India buying less Russian oil?
Last month, Trump announced sanctions on Russia’s top two oil companies, in a bid to squeeze the Kremlin’s war effort by scaring off major crude buyers like India and China. Is it working? Preliminary data show India’s imports of Russian oil actually increased slightly in October compared to September. But wait, there’s more: India’s purchases in the second half of October plummeted compared to the first half. That may have something to do with the fact that Trump announced the sanctions on Oct. 23. They don’t take effect until later this month, so we’ll be watching to see what the November data tell us. With Chinese firms now also reportedly exploring alternative sources of oil, Russia may in fact start feeling the effects of US sanctions (for more on this, and whether it would change his approach to Ukraine, read here).
People gather at a petrol station in Bamako, Mali, on November 1, 2025, amid ongoing fuel shortages caused by a blockade imposed by al Qaeda-linked insurgents.
One of the most expansive countries in West Africa is on the precipice of falling to an Islamist group that has pledged to transform the country into a pre-modern caliphate.
Jama’at Nusrat al-Islam al-Muslimin (JNIM), a militant group that has pledged allegiance to al-Qaeda, has surrounded Mali’s capital Bamako, blocking fuel from entering the city of four million people, with the aim of bringing down the government.
If that happens, it could be a catastrophe for the 25 million people of Mali – particularly the country’s women.
“It would be the end of secular governance and a shift to a theocratic system and sharia law, the abolition of democracy, lots of violence and repression, massive displacements, terrible for women’s rights and deepening ethnic divides,” said Eurasia Group’s West Africa analyst Jeanne Ramier.
And it would be a geopolitical setback for the ruling military junta’s backers in Moscow.. But the damage could also, Ramier says, spread beyond Mali itself.
“It would be very bad for everyone,” Ramier said of JNIM’s potential takeover. “It would definitely affect countries beyond the Sahel and the whole West Africa region.”
Violent extremism has been a major issue across the Sahel for some time – an estimated 51% of all terrorism-related deaths in the world last year were in the region, per the Council on Foreign Relations. JNIM’s success in Mali has prompted similar uprisings in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger. The most populous country in the region, Nigeria, has faced jihadist insurgencies from Boko Haram and West African offshoots of ISIS for 16 years. Even countries like Cote d’Ivoire, which has been relatively stable in recent years, hasn’t escaped the violence over the last decade, most notably in 2016 when militants murdered 16 people at a beach resort in Grand Bassam.
So what’s happening in Mali? Once a paragon of democracy in the region, Mali has been going through an internal conflict since 2012 when, in the middle of the Arab Spring, a US-trained Malian colonel overthrew the government.
The country has been under military rule and in flux ever since. A French invasion in 2013, welcomed by many Malians, was initially successful in knocking back Islamist groups that became active around the 2012 coup. But it quickly went awry, as militants reasserted themselves and a military junta that seized power in 2020 severed ties with the French, prompting Paris to withdraw troops later that year and abort the operation altogether in 2022. Russian mercenaries filled the power vacuum when the French left, backing the incumbent military regime which is now on the brink of collapse.
Which other countries are affected? JNIM also has a major presence in neighboring Burkina Faso, where it already controls 40% of the country amid a long running conflict that saw two coups in 2022 alone. Experts believe the momentum that the group has gathered in Mali will only make matters worse there.
Completing the so-called “coup belt” of Sahel countries run by military juntas is Niger, to Mali’s east. The military government there, which seized power in 2023, has also struggled to contain JNIM forces. Like Mali, Niger once had the help of a major outside player in tackling terrorism: the United States had a military presence there in a bid to boost the country’s counterterrorism efforts. US-Niger relations soured after the coup, though, and Washington withdrew all its soldiers from the country last year.
Where else could the jihadist insurgencies spread? Mauritania, Senegal, and even Côte d’Ivoire – all of which border Mali – could be the next targets for radicalization, said Ramier. Coastal states that don’t border Mali, like Ghana and Nigeria, may also be impacted.
Governments in these countries will seek to shore up security to prevent the insurgency spreading. They will deploy soldiers in areas where the militants are rampant. They will beef up border security. They may even seek help from western nations that would want to mitigate a potential migration crisis.
But the question will be whether they can work together to stem the spread. Ramier isn’t hopeful.
“I think the Economic Community of West African States [ECOWAS] will try to act and take a strong stance, but I think they will probably fail to turn the tide.”
Hard Numbers: Dick Cheney dies, China sentences Myanmar scammers to death, Jamaica town left in ruins, OpenAI splashes cash on computing power
Then-Republican vice presidential candidate Dick Cheney points out something to then-Republican presidential candidate George W. Bush during a campaign stop in Casper, Wyoming, on July 26, 2000.
84: Former US Vice President Dick Cheney, a powerful and controversial leader who had outsized influence as President George W. Bush’s second-in-command, died on Monday at 84. Cheney was best known for pushing the 2003 invasion of Iraq, using flawed intelligence to justify the decision. His critics would later call him a war criminal. A stalwart of Wyoming and Republican politics, Cheney came to reject his own party after the rise of Donald Trump.
90%: As Jamaica continues to assess the damage from Hurricane Melissa, one town has found itself hit especially hard. In Black River, a town on the south of the Caribbean island, 90% of the homes have been destroyed. The power is still out in the town, phones are down, and food supplies are running out.
5: A Chinese court handed down death sentences to five members of a major Myanmar mafia as part of a larger crackdown on scamming in Southeast Asia. The convicts had run schemes worth billions of dollars involving human trafficking, fraud, sexual slavery and murder of Chinese citizens. Myanmar had extradited the scam leaders to Beijing early last year.
$38 billion: As part of its tireless, and expensive, race to to secure computing power, OpenAI signed a $38-billion deal with Amazon Web Services (AWS) that will allow the loss-making AI firm to use AWS infrastructure to run its products. OpenAI has now committed to spending an eye-watering $1.5 trillion on computing resources.
Hard Numbers: Hamas returns three more hostage bodies, Tanzanian prez win reelection after quashing opposition, Another earthquake strikes Afghanistan, & More
A Palestinian Hamas militant keeps guard as Red Cross personnel head towards an area within the so-called “yellow line” to which Israeli troops withdrew under the ceasefire, as Hamas says it continues to search for the bodies of deceased hostages seized during the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel, in Gaza City, on November 2, 2025.
3: On Sunday, Hamas handed the Israeli military the remains of three more hostages held in Gaza. The militant group said it had found them that same day in some of its tunnels beneath southern Gaza. Israel confirmed that the bodies belong to three deceased hostages, meaning there are now eight unreturned bodies left in Gaza. Returning all the bodies is a key condition for the fragile Hamas-Israel ceasefire.
98%: Tanzanian President Samia Suluhu Hassan was declared the winner on Saturday of the East African country’s election with 98% of the vote. Several opposition leaders were barred from running and detained, and the government shut down the internet in the run up to the election in a bid to quash unrest.
6.3: A 6.3-magnitude earthquake struck northern Afghanistan early Monday morning, killing at least 20 people and leaving hundreds injured. The quake also caused a power outage across the country, including in the capital Kabul, as electricity lines running from Tajikistan and Uzbekistan were damaged. It’s the second major earthquake to hit Afghanistan in the last few months.
$9.6 billion: Humans’ attention spans are getting short. How short? Chinese media studios are rushing to create “mini-drama” series where each episode lasts two minutes or less. The industry is flourishing, and is forecast to reach $9.6 billion (CN¥68.6 billion) in size this year. This would exceed China’s traditional box office.
What We’re Watching: Trump threatens Nigeria, Jihadis surround Mali’s capital, Latin Americans back US-led regime change in Venezuela
Farmers proceed to their fields for cultivation under Nigerian Army escort while departing Dikwa town in Borno State, Nigeria, on August 27, 2025. Despite the threat of insurgent attacks, farmers in Borno are gradually returning to their farmlands under military escort, often spending limited time on cultivation.
Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened military action against Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, over the government’s alleged failure to protect Christian communities, who make up nearly half of the country’s 231 million people. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rejected the claims, which echo a growing concern about anti-Christian violence among the American right, though his adviser said he’d “welcome US assistance” in combating jihadist insurgencies such as ISWAP, which have targeted Christian communities. In addition, there has been a surge in sectarian violence in Nigeria this year, a result of intensifying competition for land and resources between farmers, who are typically Christian, and herders, who are mostly Muslim.
Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis
Meanwhile, in nearby Mali, jihadis have surrounded and blockaded the capital of Bamako, starving the city’s four million residents of fuel. The militants are now on the cusp of taking power from the Russian-backed military junta there. This is the latest twist in a 13-year long conflict that has featured three military coups, a French invasion, a Russian intervention, a French withdrawal, and a notorious jihadi leader nicknamed “One-Eyed Nelson.” The rise of an ultraconservative jihadist caliphate would subject Mali’s people – especially its women – to immense hardship, while also threatening to create a fresh refugee crisis that could ripple towards Europe. It would also mark a fresh setback for Russia, and could boost jihadist groups that have sprouted in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela
Nearly half of Americans oppose US-led regime change in Venezuela, and just 18% support it, a YouGov poll says. But people in the region see things differently, according to a multi-country Bloomberg study that shows 53% of respondents want Tío Sam to knock out Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Mexico is the only country where opposition surpasses support for the idea. Within Venezuela? A plurality said they “don’t know.” The US has recently been striking boats it says belong to drug traffickers tied to the Venezuelan regime. But with more US warships in the region than at any time since the 1989-1990 invasion of Panamá, many are wondering if Maduro’s regime itself is the eventual target. (For more on what that could look like, see here.)
US President Donald Trump (sixth from left) and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (seventh from left) arrive at the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) in Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on October 28, 2025.
Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington will restart nuclear-weapons testing, raising fears that it could end a 33-year moratorium on nuclear-warhead testing.
“Because of other countries (sic) testing programs,” Trump said, “I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”
What is nuclear testing? Nuclear powers – including the US, Russia, and others – test missiles and other delivery systems regularly. Russia has recently been developing new cruise missiles and underwater drones that are nuclear capable. However, no nation other than North Korea has been confirmed to test a nuclear warhead in over three decades. In an interview aired Sunday on CBS, Trump claimed, “Russia’s testing, and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it.” Both countries deny the allegation. International agreements from the 1960s ban nuclear testing.
What tests will the US actually conduct? On Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News, “I think the tests we’re talking about right now are systems tests... These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call noncritical explosions.”
Why announce testing now? Trump made the announcement just prior to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last Thursday. In the past five years, Beijing has doubled its nuclear arsenal to 600 weapons, and the Pentagon estimates that China will have more than 1,000 by 2030. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the US and Russia are still the top two nuclear powers with 5177 and 5459 respectively.
Vice President JD Vance said all three countries have a large nuclear arsenal and that “sometimes you’ve got to test it to make sure it’s functioning and working properly.”
The move comes amidst a disintegrating arms control regime. In the 1970s and 80s the US and the USSR sought to limit the growth of their nuclear arsenals through the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) I and II and the INF treaty, which reduced total warhead count and eliminated the development of ground-launched nuclear missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. In the 1990s and 2000s, the US and Russia concluded three Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START) Treaties, ultimately capping the number of deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 each.
But in recent years arms control has been unravelling. In 2019, the US withdrew from a treaty that outlawed intermediate range nuclear missiles, because it said Russia had been violating the pact. Four years later, Moscow suspended its participation in START II and resumed testing nuclear weapons delivery systems.
What risks lie ahead? Trump wants to conduct as many tests as Russia and China “within five years,” which could spur both nations to increase their testing to remain competitive. Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association, warned that Trump's announcement could “trigger a chain reaction of nuclear testing by U.S. adversaries, and blow apart the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
Ending the “testing taboo” could also encourage smaller nuclear nations like North Korea, Pakistan and India, and aspiring nuclear powers like Iran, to engage in testing as well.
And even if testing is confined to new delivery systems alone, the race to develop new, stealthier and more destructive nuclear missiles, rockets, and drones is likely to accelerate.
All of this has scientists considering advancing the hands of the so-called “doomsday clock.” Currently, they sit at 89 seconds to midnight – the closest they have ever been.
Demonstrators carry the dead body of a man killed during a protest a day after a general election marred by violent demonstrations over the exclusion of two leading opposition candidates at the Namanga One-Post Border crossing point between Kenya and Tanzania, as seen from Namanga, Kenya October 30, 2025.
That last move echoes a troubling trend of governments across Africa cutting internet access during moments of political uncertainty. Between 2016 and 2023, human rights groups claim African governments have shut down the internet 59 times during protests, 25 times during elections, 11 times during conflict and six times during military coups. In 2024, digital-rights monitors counted a record 21 shutdowns across 15 African countries, an all-time high, suggesting “digital darkness” is becoming a routine means of maintaining power.
How do shutdowns happen? Regulators order telecom companies to either pull the plug on internet access entirely, to throttle bandwidth to make services unusable, or to block specific platforms like X, WhatsApp, or TikTok. Officials generally justify the moves as necessary to curb “misinformation” or “incitement,” but the real goal is generally to limit opponents’ ability to mobilize supporters, share information, and alert the press to what is happening.
Why was there a shutdown in Tanzania? It’s a go-to move for the government there. Authorities first shut down the web during the 2020 election, blocking access to specific social media platforms. In August 2024, X was blocked and Tanzanian leadership ordered police to clamp down on youth organizing over Zoom; in October 2025 they cut access to Tik Tok Live and Instagram Live. Crackdowns have frequently coincided with the detention of opposition leaders.
Where else is this happening in Africa? Research has shown that the longer a leader is in power, the more likely they are to deploy digital repression. Africa has some of the longest-serving leaders on the planet, but also the youngest electorates, making for an increasingly volatile combination.
Internet access was curtailed this year in Congo, led by 79-year old President Denis Sassou Nguesso for 40 years, as the country grappled with a deepening civil war. Uganda’s president Yoweri Museveni – who is seeking to extend his 40 year term in next year’s elections – shut down the country’s entire internet during the 2021 election and has kept Facebook blocked ever since. Cameroonian president Paul Biya was just reelected for an eighth term, serving since 1982, and famously cut off internet service for 230 days in 2017, and multiple shorter times thereafter, including during the recent vote.
Conflict also serves as a pretext. The government of Ethiopia shut down internet and phone services in the province of Tigray for more than two years during its brutal civil war with separatist forces there. That effectively cut some 6 million people off from each other and from the outside world.
Do shutdowns work? While shutdowns can dampen protests for hours or days, they sometimes backfire long-term by galvanizing the opposition. Africa’s surge in shutdowns has been met by backlash from groups like the African Commission on Human and Peoples’ Rights and the #KeepItOn coalition, who shine a light on abuses.
How are people coping? Youth networks, opposition parties, and journalists are adapting in a variety of ways. Activists pre-plan offline “low-tech” communications, such as community radio; newsrooms prepare mirrored sites and satellite uplinks; election observers switch to analog reporting. Some users get around the blocks with Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and mesh networks, while others “sideload” apps on Android devices from unofficial app stores.
In Tanzania, local outlets and digital-rights groups also flagged restrictions in real time, and international coalitions have been pressing the government – so far unsuccessfully – to restore service. But with digital connectivity the new currency of politics, it’s hard to see long-time African rulers giving up control just yet.