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Iranian policemen monitor an area near a residential complex that is damaged in Israeli attacks in Tehran, Iran, on June 13, 2025.
Israel bombed Iran’s nuclear facilities Thursday night, causing “significant damage” at the country’s main enrichment plant, killing leading Iranian military figures and nuclear scientists, and sparking fears that the Middle East is on the verge of a wider war.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Friday morning the operation hasn’t ended, with strikes continuing into the afternoon.
The United States denied any involvement in the attacks, even though previous reports have suggested that Israeli Defense Forces couldn’t destroy Tehran’s nuclear facilities without Washington’s help. US President Donald Trump nonetheless used the opportunity to press Iran into making a deal – the US and Iran were supposed to hold talks in Oman on Sunday, but it’s now unclear whether Iranian officials will attend.
Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei pledged a “harsh” response, but their ability to respond has been hindered by Israeli strikes on Iran’s long-range missile facilities and air defenses. The IDF reported on Friday morning that Iran launched 100 drones into Israel, but there were no reports of significant damage.
The strikes mark a seminal moment for Netanyahu. The Israeli leader has long threatened bombing Iran, as he sees this as the only effective method of preventing Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon – he doesn’t believe the US nuclear talks can achieve this. Netanyahu never followed through with this threat when former US President Barack Obama was negotiating a nuclear deal with Tehran a decade ago. This time is different: Netanyahu believes Iran is weak – many of their allies in the Middle East are either severely diminished or in exile – so he took his chance.
The strikes went much further than last year’s exchanges, in which Israel bombed the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria and Iran responded with a volley of 300 drones and missiles at Israel, which inflicted little visible damage.
Israel’s strikes yesterday didn’t come totally out of the blue. US and European officials warned earlier in the week that Israel was preparing a strike. Washington also evacuated nonessential staff from its embassy in Baghdad, as well as family members of military personnel at its Middle East bases, amid concerns about a widening conflict.
Where does it go from here? We asked Eurasia Group’s Middle East expert Firas Maksad to shed some light on a complex and dangerous situation. The conversation was edited for length and clarity.
Q: How will Iran respond, and what can it do now that some of its military capabilities have been damaged?
- Maksad: “It has to respond forcefully, if only to save face with a domestic audience, which is important for regime stability, but also to have leverage if there is any return to negotiations further down the road. However, its ability to reach Israel and effect significant damage is fairly limited. Its other options – including closure of the Straits of Hormuz, impacting oil prices or attacks against American basing facilities or even energy facilities in the GCC – those are all options that can backfire and provide the United States with enough pretext and reason to join the war.”
Q: Who, if anyone, can help Iran respond?
- Maksad: “Iran will naturally look towards its proxy network in the region in pursuit of its forward defense strategy, essentially having Hezbollah, but also the Houthis and the militias in Iraq, to come to its aid in a response. However, [the ability of these groups to respond] has been greatly diminished as a result of the past 18 months or so of war.”
Q: Will Israel attack more?
- Maksad: “The Israelis have said that this is only the beginning, the opening salvo of a long and sustained military campaign. I believe that to be the case. They can, in fact, inflict significant damage against Iran’s nuclear infrastructure. However, that will require multiple waves of strikes for days and weeks to come, and so I suspect that this will be with us for quite some time.”
Q: Are there any hopes left for a US-Iran nuclear deal?
- Maksad: “Diplomacy is dead for the foreseeable future. It is very unlikely that the Iranian government will return to the negotiating table without at least having attempted a retaliatory strike first, for the purposes of saving face and gathering leverage. This will require some time, particularly as these Israeli strikes are ongoing, and so it is very unlikely, despite President Trump's call for Iran to come back to diplomacy, that the diplomatic off ramp will be Iran’s preferred path forward for weeks to come.”
We also asked Eurasia Group’s Director of Analysis Marc Gustafson whether the United States could be dragged into a regional war.
- Gustafson: “Trump will try to avoid getting involved. Not just because it is risky for the US military, but also because his campaign promise has been to get the US out of foreign wars. This message resonates with his base. That said, the US could get pulled into the conflict. [For example,] if Iran starts attacking US bases within range of Iran’s short-range missiles, Trump will be under considerable pressure to respond militarily.”
What We’re Watching: Trump’s parade prompts protests, Kenya protests turn deadly, Mongolia picks new leader
A tank on display at a park in Washington, D.C., on June 12, 2025, two days ahead of a military parade commemorating the U.S. Army's 250th anniversary and coinciding with President Donald Trump's 79th birthday.
Trump’s military parade sparks backlash
The official reason for this weekend’s military parade in Washington DC is to commemorate the 250th anniversary of the US Army – but the occasion also just happens to fall on President Donald Trump’s 79th birthday. That coincidence has raised alarm among Trump critics worried about his perceived authoritarian inklings. Hundreds of “No Kings” protests are planned across the country for the same day. Meanwhile, the courts are still trying to decide whether Trump’s deployment of the National Guard to Los Angeles was legal. The decision will set an important precedent for Trump’s handling of protests going forward.
Protests erupts in Kenya after blogger dies in custody
Protests erupted in Nairobi, Kenya, this week over the death of a 31-year-old political blogger in police custody. Albert Ojwang was arrested last week on charges of criticizing the country’s deputy police chief. While police originally claimed that his death was caused by self-inflicted injuries – authorities said he hit “his head against a cell wall” – doctors later determined that it was more likely the result of an assault. Ojwang’s death has only added to the population’s long-held anger at Kenya’s security services.
Mongolia gets a new prime minister
After protests toppled his predecessor ten days ago, Zandanshatar Gombojav became Mongolia’s new prime minister on Thursday in a near-unanimous parliamentary vote. The former head of Mongolia’s largest bank takes power amid political unrest over the belief that the country's rich mineral wealth has only lined the pockets of the elite. He says his first priority is to increase taxes on luxury consumption, but also to decrease government spending. Let’s see if he can get the protesters onside.A gas station in Düsseldorf, Germany, on June 10, 2025.
12%: Oil prices spiked 12% in early trading on Friday following Israel’s attacks on Iran, reflecting fears that a wider Middle East conflict could restrict access to crude exports. Later in the morning prices softened slightly, but were still up nearly 9%, to more than $75 per barrel.
4: Although school shootings are rare in Europe, four of the worst incidents this centuryhave occurred since 2023, raising concern about whether the phenomenon – until now largely a US problem – is spreading more rapidly.
3: Is the wait over? Millions of BTS fans hope so. The K-Pop supergroup has not performed together in three years due to its members’ mandatory South Korean military service. But now that they have been discharged (honorably!), rumors are flying that the group could take the stage again at a festival outside Seoul this weekend.
1.5%: Argentina’s monthly inflation fell to just 1.5% in May. That’s the lowest level in five years – and a stark fall from early 2024, when it exceeded 25%. President Javier Milei’s radical cost-cutting policies have helped put a lid on rising prices.
50%: China’s production of baijiu liquor, the country’s go-to tipple, has dropped more than 50% since 2016. Demand for alcohol overall in China is plummeting as a result of changing tastes, a slowing economy, and a new campaign to stamp out drinking among the Communist Party’s 100 million members.California Governor Gavin Newsom speaks as he announces the Golden State Literacy Plan and deployment of literacy coaches statewide, at the Clinton Elementary School in Compton, California, USA, on June 5, 2025.
8: California Governor Gavin Newsom posted an eight-minute video on social media Tuesday night in which he berated US President Donald Trump for sending federal troops into Los Angeles to support local police amid protests and riots against immigration enforcement. Newsom has been increasingly positioning himself as a national-level opponent of Trump.
450: The US Centers for Disease Control has reinstated 450 employees who were terminated in the recent rounds of DOGE-led layoffs, which cut 10,000 federal health workers. The reinstated employees work in a range of areas, including STD prevention, global health, environmental health, and lead poisoning prevention.
30 billion: Canada needs to invest at least $30 billion in its critical minerals industry by 2040 if it hopes to meet rising demand stoked by the green energy transition. Critical minerals such as lithium and copper are key components of electric vehicles, batteries, and solar panels. Industry leaders say permitting needs to be streamlined as well.
4: Formula 1 driver Max Verstappenwill attempt to win a record fourth consecutive Canadian Grand Prix when the race roars through the notoriously brake-heavy course on Montreal’s Île Notre-Dame this Sunday.In 2023, the Washington Post embarrassed Justin Trudeau when it published a leaked Pentagon report bemoaning Canada’s “widespread defense shortfalls.” They were so bad, the paper said, they were “straining partner relationships and alliance contributions.”
For years, NATO allies were frustrated that the Canadians persistently failed to meet the 2% spending target that is supposed to be the cover charge for being a member of the world’s most powerful military alliance.
But this week, newly elected Prime Minister Mark Carney sought to put an end to all of that, announcing a new defense budget of CA$62.7 billion between 2025 and 2026. That’s a 17% increase over the current budget, and it would get Canada to the NATO benchmark this year.
It’s a sea change in priorities for a country that—bound on three sides by vast oceans, one of which is permanently frozen, and on the other by a long undefended border with the United States—hasn’t had a compelling reason to spend on defense.
But ever since 2022, when the Russians made their failed thunder run to Kyiv, the world has become more dangerous, and opinion has shifted. At last year’s NATO summit, Trudeau finally gave in to pressure and promised that Canada would hit the target—but not until 2032. This year, Canada was to spend just 1.37% of GDP on defense.
It’s not yet clear where all the money will go, and whether all of it will meet NATO’s definition of military spending, but Canadians are finally doing what their allies want, because they have to.
“A new imperialism threatens,” Carney said. “Middle powers must compete for interests and attention, knowing that if they’re not at the table, they’re on the menu.”
Canadians have reluctantly concluded they have to pony up. A recent poll shows that 65% of voters want more military spending, up from 34% in 2022.
Russian aggression and erratic American leadership have shaken up the old calculations about the wisdom of relying on the Americans to provide continental defense.
“The United States is beginning to monetize its hegemony,” Carney said, “charging for access to its markets and reducing its relative contributions to our collective security.”
But there is another factor: Trump. In his first term, the US president derided allies as freeloaders and urged them to spend more, but yielded limited results. In his second term, Trump has been more belligerent and threatening, and he is getting what he (and, to be fair, most NATO militaries) wants: bigger defense budgets.
In fact, he has upped the ante, demanding a new benchmark of 5%, a target that many NATO countries have tentatively agreed to—and are expected to confirm when they meet in the Netherlands later this month. As in Canada, the policy of increased defense spending enjoys broad approval in most of Europe, as voters worry about Russian aggression and American unpredictability.
In Canada, the new spending feels overdue. The Canadian Armed Forces have been understaffed for a decade, and, as Carney pointed out Monday, only one of the country’s four submarines is operational. Having relied on Uncle Sam for so long, Canada is now unable to protect the sovereignty in its territorial waters and the Arctic on its own.
The spending may also help Carney smooth relations with Trump, who has imposed job-killing tariffs on Canada and threatened to annex the country. Carney won the recent election by promising to stand up to Trump, resist American aggression, and assert Canadian sovereignty. He has said he wants to join the nascent European rearmament plan, and has ordered a review of Canada’s CA$19-billion (US$15 billion) deal to purchase 88 F-35 fighter jets from US defense firm Lockheed Martin.
Carney, and Canada, have a lot riding on working out an arrangement with Trump. By boosting military spending, Carney has removed a long-standing irritant and improved his negotiating position in the make-or-break negotiations ahead.
What We’re Watching: Canada-US deal takes shape, G7 kicks off in Kananaskis, Wildfires rage
Flags fly above the Peace Arch at a Canada-US border crossing in Blaine, Washington, USA, on April 2, 2025.
Canada, US may be closer to a deal
Canadian and US officials may be approaching at least the framework of a deal covering trade and other issues, CBC reported Wednesday. Sources say that in exchange for tariff relief from the United States, Canada would agree to participate in Washington’s Golden Dome missile defense program and build infrastructure in the Arctic. But Canadian officials have cautioned there is as of yet no deal on the table.
The G7 summit: big guest list and big questions
The tarmac at Calgary International Airport will be clogged next week when leaders from around the world arrive for the G7 summit of the world’s advanced economy democracies at nearby Kananaskis. In addition to G7 leaders, the heads of Australia, Brazil, India, Mexico, and Ukraine will attend. The big question: Can seven of the world’s most influential countries agree on a strategy for key issues such as trade, the climate, and Ukraine when the most powerful one of all now has radically different views from the rest?
Wildfires pose health risks near and far
Another terrible wildfire season in the northern forest has forced tens of thousands of Canadians, many of them from isolated Indigenous communities, to be evacuated to cities as distant as Niagara Falls, where they are staying in university dorms and hotels. In addition to the terrible disruption for those residents, the fires are sending smoke and smog as far away as Milwaukee. Worryingly, there is reason to fear the resulting health hazards could be more severe than usual.
Air India Flight AI171 crashed into the hostel canteen of the B.J. Medical College (BJMC), a well-known medical college in Ahmedabad, India, on June 12, 2025, while students were having lunch inside. Casualties in the building is not known.
Deadly plane crash in India
An Air India flight carrying 242 people crashed into a residential area soon after taking off from Ahmedabad in western India on Thursday. The Boeing Dreamliner aircraft was headed to London, and was carrying 169 Indian nationals, 53 British, seven Portuguese, and one Canadian. There was at least one survivor – a British national named Vishwash Kumar Ramesh. So far there is no indication of what may have caused the crash. Boeing, the US largest aircraft maker, has recently been under scrutiny for safety lapses.
US-Iran tensions spike with little progress on nuclear deal
The US on Wednesday evacuated nonessential diplomatic and military personnel from Baghdad and several military bases in the region. The move comes as US President Donald Trump’s two-month deadline for a new nuclear deal with Iran is about to expire. Until now, Trump has pushed for diplomacy despite pressure from Israel which wants to bomb Iran's nuclear sites. If attacked, Iran has pledged to strike American assets in retaliation. There is one more round of US-Iran talks scheduled for Sunday. After that... buckle up.
ICE protests spread beyond Los Angeles
Protests against the Trump administration’s immigration enforcement policies have spread beyond Los Angeles to cities including Seattle, Chicago, San Francisco, and Denver. Although some have turned violent and hundreds have been arrested, Trump has not sent federal forces anywhere beyond LA, where Marines and National Guard troops remain in the streets. Will that hold? Hundreds of anti-Trump “No Kings Day” protests are planned nationwide to coincide with Trump’s birthday celebration and military parade this Saturday. Watch the streets.