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As summer winds down this weekend, here are the geopolitical stories you may have missed while your inbox was on “out of office” — the ones we expect will have the biggest impact this fall.
In Sudan, the skies have turned deadly
Drones have become the new face of modern warfare, dominating headlines as Russia and Ukraine trade near-daily aerial strikes. But unmanned aircraft vehicles (UAVs) are wreaking havoc in another of the world’s deadliest, and least covered, conflicts: Sudan.
With drones now entering the fray, the conflict risks escalating into a dangerous new phase, allowing both sides to keep inflicting damage with minimal risks to themselves.
Ever since the SAF recaptured the capital Khartoum in March, the two sides have been locked in a strategic stalemate, with drones enabling both groups to carry out precision strikes hundreds of miles behind enemy lines.
Is Sudan a sign of future of warfare? Read more here.
A surge of political violence has revived Colombia’s worst fears
When a gunman shot Colombian presidential candidate Miguel Uribe in June, it sparked memories of the deadly decades-long internal conflict from late last century when political assassination attempts were a common occurrence.
Fast forward nearly three months, Uribe is now dead, and the violence between dissidents and the military has intensified – there have been multiple reports of mass kidnappings of government soldiers. Left-wing President Gustavo Petro has pledged to clamp down on the violence, but he can’t seem to put a lid on things: the number of kidnappings and killings of human rights activists have soared over the last few years.
This will likely cost the left, politically speaking. The rising violence is prompting more and more Colombians to seek a tough-on-crime leader, damaging Petro’s hopes that a socialist candidate will win next year’s presidential election – the incumbent leader can’t run again.
The shift in Colombia’s politics is also something of a proxy for the rest of South America. Other countries with left-wing leaders, like Bolivia and Chile, have also tilted right, seeking leaders who will keep them safe. Bolivians ousted the socialists from power for the first time in decades. Chile’s elections in November will be the next test for the South American left, before Colombia’s election next May.
Will the rising violence hurt the Colombian left? Read more here.
Is MAGA bailing on Bibi?
In early July, there were some rumblings of discontent within the Trump administration at Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. An Israeli shell had struck a church in Gaza, settlers had attacked a Christian Palestinian village, and the Israeli Defense Forces had bombed the Syrian Defense Ministry in Damascus – against the White House’s wishes.
But the disquiet was only the tip of the iceberg: Trump supporters, especially younger ones, are becoming more and more critical of Israel, questioning the US’s support for the Jewish State. Though younger Republicans aren’t nearly as critical as younger Democrats, this trend is a concerning one for Israel, as the country has relied heavily on US military aid. Republicans have been particularly sympathetic toward Israel in recent history, so to lose their backing would be drastic.
Soon after the piece was published, US Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene – a MAGA firebrand – became the first House Republican to label Israel’s actions in Gaza as a “genocide,” affirming that the GOP is no longer united behind supporting Israel. Read the original GZERO report here.
Is AI why college grads can’t find jobs?
The kids are not alright. Since we opened the Pandora’s Box of chatbots, new grads have faced higher unemployment than the national average for the first time in decades. Which raises the question: are they the canaries in the coal mine that AI-driven job disruption has begun?
“It just seems like there’s not any more entry-level roles,” reports James Kettle, a 25-year-old Columbia University graduate who’s been on the job hunt since May. His experience is echoed in a new Stanford study, which found hiring in AI-exposed occupations for early-career workers is down 13%.
Even if we can’t be certain AI is totally to blame for stealing young people’s existing jobs (yet), it’s making it harder for them to get hired in the first place. Delia Thompson, a 23-year-old University of Virginia graduate who’s been on the hunt for seven months, describes the job process today as “shouting into the void,” as she and other candidates send thousands of AI-assisted resumes through LinkedIn, only for companies to use their own algorithms to sift through the pile – a loop of bots talking to bots. “It makes it feel like a total lottery,” says Thompson.
This is reshaping their political views and how many young people are viewing AI overall. Read more here.
What We’re Watching: Killing further inflames Indonesian protests, India and Canada mend ties, El Salvador continues authoritarian drift
Protesters carry an Indonesian flag and a flag from Japanese anime 'One Piece' during a protest outside Jakarta police headquarters, in Jakarta, Indonesia, on August 29, 2025.
Protests erupt further in Indonesia
Demonstrations in the capital Jakarta have intensified after a police vehicle rammed into a taxi there on Thursday, killing the driver. The protests, which have now spread across the country, first came following reports that lawmakers had been receiving a monthly housing allowance of 50 million rupiah ($3,075) in addition to their salaries. This was especially irksome for Indonesia’s 280-million-plus population as many have been struggling to find jobs. Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, who has faced political challenges since coming into office last year, apologized for the excessive violence and urged calm.
India and Canada continue to mend ties after Sikh separatist killing
Nearly two years after the Vancouver murder of Hardeep Singh Nijjar, a leading advocate for a Sikh homeland in India, Ottawa and New Delhi appear to be patching things up. The tension had spiked when Canada expelled India’s high commissioner last October amid allegations that New Delhi was involved in the killing of Nijjar. Now each side has appointed new high commissioners to the other country, though this has garnered criticism from the 770,000-strong Sikh community in Canada.
El Salvador schools enforce military haircuts
El Salvador’s new military-run education ministry is enforcing strict discipline in schools, including mandatory army-style haircuts, etiquette rules, and nationalistic rituals. Rights groups say it marks another step in President Nayib Bukele’s authoritarian drift, as he deepens military control over civilian life while maintaining strong popular support.
Hard Numbers: Modi to meet Xi, European bigwigs set to reimpose Iran sanctions, Egypt cracks down on influencers, & More
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping meet on the sidelines of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, on October 23, 2024.
7: Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi will meet Chinese President Xi Jinping this weekend in Tianjin in what will be his first visit to China in seven years, a sign that tensions between the two massive countries are easing. Border disputes, technological rivalries, and China’s support for Pakistan have aggravated the relationship, but the US’s tariff policies appear to be pushing them closer.
30: The three most powerful European countries – France, Germany, and the United Kingdom – have got the wheels moving on restoring sanctions on Iran that they had lifted as part of the 2015 nuclear deal. The action comes amid concerns that Tehran is expanding its nuclear arsenal again. The sanctions could retake effect within 30 days.
151: Egyptian authorities have been arresting TikTok influencers with millions of followers. One human rights organization has tracked 151 such people being charged in the past five years in connection with their TikTok videos – and the full number could be even higher. The arrests are part of a broader government effort to clamp down on speech they see as antithetical to the official definition of family values.
250: Seven US deportees arrived in Rwanda yesterday as a part of a deal the East African country has struck with the Trump administration to ultimately accept up to 250 deportees. It comes after Kigali made a similar deal with the United Kingdom in 2022.
3: Thailand’s Constitutional Court permanently removed Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, dissolving her cabinet and deepening political turmoil in the country. She is the third of her family to be ousted from office, amid continued dominance by Thailand’s royalist-military establishment – despite her party taking electoral power from them in 2023.
Argentine President Javier Milei speaks to the media while standing on a vehicle with lawmaker Jose Luis Espert during a La Libertad Avanza rally ahead of legislative elections on the outskirts of Buenos Aires, Argentina, on August 27, 2025.
The campaign for Argentina’s legislative election officially launched this week, but it couldn’t have gone worse for President Javier Milei. A corruption scandal – one of the very things that he railed against during his successful campaign two years ago – burst into the news after a leaked recording appeared to implicate his sister.
The tapes suggest that Karina Milei, who is also a member of the administration, was involved in a kickback scheme at the National Disability Agency (ANDIS). Nothing has been proven, but the federal authorities stepped up their investigation in response to the leaked audio.
That’s not all for Milei: alongside the corruption scandal are a host of economic issues that have undermined his policy of fiscal “shock therapy.” Output has been stagnant this year, the peso is massively overvalued – this decreases competitiveness of Argentine exports – and public sector pay is down in real terms. Argentina’s central bank also increased its reserve requirements this week, which could further hit the economy. The concern for Milei is that these issues will overwhelm the success he’s had in bringing down inflation and balancing the budget.
“It won’t be a corruption scandal that does him in, it will probably be the economic problems,” said Eugenia Mitchelstein, a social sciences professor at the University of San Andrés in Buenos Aires. “The corruption scandal doesn’t help.”
The Oct. 26 midterm election, where a third of senators and half of the Chamber of Deputies are up for election, is a vital one for the president. The vote will not only be a bellwether for how Argentina feels about his economic approach, but also gives Milei’s La Libertad Avanza (LLA) party an opportunity to pick up seats in a Congress that has blocked many of the president’s proposed reforms.
What’s the current state of Argentina’s Congress? Milei only co-founded the libertarian LLA in 2021, so its representation in both chambers of the National Congress is paltry: only six of the 72 senators and 38 of the 257 deputies currently belong to LLA. What’s more, Argentina’s politics is heavily fragmented, meaning there are several different parties represented in the Congress – no single party has a majority. The Unión por la Patria (UP), a center-left Peronist grouping that is Milei’s main foe, has a plurality.
What does Milei want? Milei’s first target is to win a third of the seats so that he can gain veto power. Beyond that, the president hopes to enact tax, labor, and pension reforms that will structurally alter Argentina’s economy. So far he has been able to muscle some changes through the National Congress, such as the big omnibus bill passed in June 2024 to deregulate the economy and hand the president more power. But his party’s threadbare representation limited what he was able to achieve, forcing him to negotiate with his opponents from a weak position. That could change after the October election.
“Even if the government does extremely well, they won’t have their own majority in Congress, so they will still need to negotiate with the more moderate sectors of the opposition,” Juan Cruz Díaz, the managing director of Buenos Aires-based advisory firm Cefeidas Group, told GZERO. “But they will do it from a different standpoint, from a different legitimacy. They will have more leverage.”
Who’s leading the charge against Milei? UP may be the biggest opposition party, but they have a leadership crisis. Over 40% of Argentinians said they didn’t know who the leader of the opposition was, or said there was none, per a Pulso poll from earlier this month. Another 25% said it was former President Cristina Fernández de Kirchner, the left-wing Peronist leader who is currently under house arrest for corruption, and is barred from politics for life.
“[The opposition] is not only fragmented, it is leaderless,” said Marcelo J. Garcia, Americas director at Horizon Engage consultancy. “Milei is the only national leader that controls his political space, his political party. So that really plays to his advantage.”
Why should I care about Argentina? The Latin American nation of over 47 million people is better known for its soccer stars, beautiful Patagonian mountain range, and delicious beef steaks. But Milei is creating his own level of fame. His brash brand of chainsaw politics has become something exemplary for right wingers across the globe, with libertarians proclaiming his premiership as a paragon of success.
This election gives Argentinians the chance to say how they feel about Milei’s leadership, and whether he’s done enough to stabilize the country’s turbulent economy. It could have major ramifications for how Milei governs going forward, according to Mitchelstein.
“If he does well, if he gets, say, 40-42% of the vote, it will confirm his intuition, and it will probably make him more Milei than ever,” Mitchelstein told GZERO. “If he doesn't get that many votes, say, 37-38%, it might actually lead him to rethink his government, and also the way he’s been ruling.”
What We’re Watching: Thai court to decide PM’s fate, Israeli continues firing at Syria, UK’s Starmer in a hole
Thailand's courts will decide whether to oust prime minister
A Thai court will rule Friday on Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra’s fate, potentially removing her and triggering a parliamentary vote for a new leader. The case is over a call with Cambodia’s leader where Shinawatra appeared critical of Thailand's military as tensions between the two neighboring countries were escalating. It reflects the ongoing clash between the populist Shinawatra family and the military-backed conservative establishment they took power from in the 2023 election.
Israel strikes Syria again
Israeli drone strikes near Damascus killed Syrian soldiers on Tuesday, Syria’s government said. As part of the strikes, an Israeli plane on Wednesday briefly landed on a former air defense base in the Syrian countryside – one that Iran had used during the Assad regime. These offensive maneuvers were the latest Israeli attacks on its neighbor since Syrian President Ahmed al Sharaa overthrew the Assad regime in December. The two old rivals continue to hold talks about deescalating tensions.
UK’s Starmer removes another top adviser as storm brews around his premiership
UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is set to remove the top civil servant from his team, the third time in less than a year that he has replaced a senior member of staff. The move comes as the British public grows agitated with his premiership, especially with his failure to cut immigration: data released last week showed that there was a record number of asylum claims over the last 12 months. Immigration has now replaced health as the top policy priority in the country. Starmer’s struggles mean it’s now an open question whether he’ll lead his party at the next election.
Hard Numbers: Russia strikes Kyiv’s residential areas, Shooting at Minneapolis school mass, Soccer giants dumped out of cup, US economy rolls on
Rescue and search operations continue in Kyiv, Ukraine, on August 28, 2025, following Russian strikes on the capital city overnight.
19: A series of Russian strikes in residential areas of Kyiv last night left at least 19 people dead, with one of the bombs hitting a European Union office. These weren’t the only attacks on Ukraine overnight: Russian artillery and drones killed another five Ukrainian civilians in the southern and eastern parts of the country. Two weeks since the Alaska summit, peace looks further away than ever.
2: A shooter murdered two children – a six-year-old and a 15-year-old – and injured another 17 when they unloaded their rifle yesterday during a school mass in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The 23-year-old perpetrator, who is now also dead, was a former student of the school. “Don’t just say this is about thoughts and prayers right now,” Minneapolis Mayor Jacob Frey said after the horrific shooting.
13: Thirteen is unlucky for some: soccer giants Manchester United missed their 13th spot kick in last night’s penalty shootout against Grimsby Town, a team in the fourth tier of English football, to crash out of the League Cup last night. The financial disparity between the two clubs is enormous: United’s revenue last year was £620 million, while Grimsby’s was £5.72 million.
3.3%: The US economy expanded at an annual rate of 3.3% – up from an initial 3% estimate – led by a 5.7% jump in business investment. Consumer spending rose modestly, while rising exports added up to record gains.
Washington’s double game in Venezuela: Warships, oil tankers, and uncertain outcomes
US President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Interior Secretary Doug Burgum and Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., attend a Cabinet meeting at the White House in Washington, D.C., USA, on August 26, 2025.
– By Tony Frangie Mawad
The turquoise Caribbean waters off Venezuela now carry two rival fleets under the same flag. One consists of US destroyers, an amphibious squadron and a nuclear submarine deployed as part of US President Donald Trump’s newest offensive against Latin American drug cartels. The other is Chevron oil tankers loading Venezuelan crude and heading north, supplying US refineries.
This duality is indicative of the Trump administration’s internal conflict over how to deal with Venezuela. While figures like Special Envoy Richard Grenell and MAGA influencer Laura Loomer dismiss “regime change” rhetoric and prioritize access to Venezuela’s oil reserves – the world’s largest – Secretary of State Marco Rubio and other Florida Republicans push for sanction-centered “maximum pressure” and alignment with opposition leaders María Corina Machado and Edmundo González Urrutia.
The strain comes after the contested July 28, 2024, presidential elections in Venezuela, when – despite overwhelming evidence of an opposition landslide victory – the Maduro government deepened repression and clung to power despite its unpopularity. The opposition, with no institutional leverage and facing a security apparatus loyal to the country’s ruling socialists, pinned its hopes on external pressure. Opposition leader Machado therefore welcomed Trump’s naval deployment, praising “the firm and brave decision to dismantle the criminal enterprise that has seized Venezuela.” She and Rubio link President Nicolás Maduro not only to alleged drug trafficking group, “Cartel of the Suns,” but also to the transnational criminal gang Tren de Aragua (TdA), portraying the Venezuelan regime as the “criminal hub” of a hemispheric syndicate. Their campaign has borne fruit: Trump formally designated the Cartel of the Suns as a terrorist organization, accusing Maduro of leading it, and raised the bounty for his capture to $50 million – twice the figure once set for Osama bin Laden.
These actions are more defensible if Venezuela is considered a narco-state. Transparencia Venezuela, Transparency’s local branch now in exile, estimates illicit economies – including cocaine, gold smuggling, and port kickbacks – may amount to close to 16% of national GDP. Almost 25% of the world’s cocaine, routed through Colombia, now passes through Venezuela, according to the DEA and other agencies. These numbers support the hard-liners in the US administration. Yet experts caution against taking the US designation of the “Cartel of the Suns” literally. Far from a rigid hierarchy, it is more an umbrella term for informal trafficking networks facilitated by corrupt officials and state institutions in the vacuum left by Venezuela’s weakened state control. Similarly, evidence linking TdA to the Maduro government is scarce.
For now, Washington is keeping its options open. The naval and marine presence – over 4,000 troops, amphibious carriers, reconnaissance aircraft, and three destroyers – is tailored less to invasion than to interception. “Suspicious vessels may be detained and boarded on the high seas, with or without flag consent. This exerts pressure, but it doesn't overthrow anyone,” says Víctor M. Mijares, a Venezuelan geopolitical expert.
Nobody knows what happens next. The presence of precision-strike platforms revives fears of a surgical operation, akin to US and Israeli strikes against Iran, a close ally of Venezuela’s regime. In anticipation, Maduro has banned non-state sale and use of drones. He has also reacted with fiery anti-imperialist rhetoric, calling for a nationwide mobilization that supposedly enlists firefighters, communal councils, and 4.5 million militia members – though local analysts note that figure is inflated, consisting largely of pensioners and state clients. On Monday, perhaps as a show of strength and to reinforce defensive border security, Venezuela also announced the deployment of 15,000 troops – allegedly as part of a domestic anti-drugs operation – to the border with Colombia, a key US regional security partner. Venezuela is also deploying ships to the northern part of the country’s territorial waters, likely facing the US fleet.
Despite the military deployments, one key factor supports a continuation of the status quo: economics. US sanctions notwithstanding, Chevron is able to export oil thanks to the renewal of their license to operate. While the opposition had urged Washington to revoke the license, calling instead for the “financial asphyxia” of the regime, tankers have resumed crude exports to the United States. The trade is estimated to generate roughly $4 billion a year, and accounts for the bulk of Venezuela's oil production.
In the medium term, it is most likely that tensions will gradually escalate. If it comes to a head and Maduro is replaced in a haphazard way, without coordination between the democratic opposition and state actors, the result may not be a democratic transition but a power vacuum quickly filled by hardliners or even a military junta. At least for now, in a country increasingly accustomed to secrets and conspiracies, the full picture remains unclear.
Tony is a Venezuelan journalist and political scientist based in Caracas. He has written for several international outlets, runs a bilingual newsletter on his country called Venezuela Weekly, and is launching Ecosistema, a digital outlet on Venezuelan business, tech, and society.