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What We’re Watching: Tense Gaza ceasefire holding again, Trump pressed Zelensky on Donbas during Friday meeting, Japan to have first female PM
Displaced Palestinians live in tents near destroyed buildings as they cannot return to their houses, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Gaza City, on October 19, 2025.
Ceasefire returns to Gaza after weekend exchange of fire
The US and the Israeli military said Sunday that the ceasefire is holding again in Gaza, after the two sides exchanged fire over the weekend in what was the biggest test so far of the peace plan signed last week. The flare up appeared to begin when Hamas militants – reportedly acting independent of the group’s leadership – hit Israeli soldiers with gunfire and anti-tank missiles, killing two soldiers. Israeli forces responded with a wave of airstrikes, killing 26 people, per local authorities. Israel said it bombed Hamas targets in the enclave, but one of the strikes hit a former school that was sheltering some displaced persons. The ceasefire remains a tenuous one, as Israel seeks the return of the remains of the last 16 hostages, while Hamas demands more aid. The next 30 days, per one US official, will be “critical.”
Trump presses Zelensky to cede Donbas in heated meeting
US President Donald Trump urged Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to give up the Donbas region and accept a ceasefire deal on Friday, during a meeting that reportedly devolved into a “shouting match” where Trump echoed the talking points that Russian President Vladimir Putin made on their call the day before. Zelensky hoped the meeting would result in the US supplying Ukraine with long-range Tomahawk missiles, a request Trump denied. US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov will speak in the coming days to prepare a new Trump-Putin summit in the next few weeks – something Zelensky signaled he would be open to attending if invited.
Japan set to have first female PM
Sanae Takichi, elected leader of the center-right Liberal Democratic Party last week, is set to become Japan’s first female prime minister, after her party penned a coalition deal with the right-wing Japan Innovation Party on Monday. The agreement means Takichi will have just enough support when Parliament votes on her ascension tomorrow. The Japan Innovation Party replaces Komeito as the LDP’s coalition partner following outgoing PM Shigeru Ishiba’s decision to resign, meaning the government will take a more pro-business approach. Takichi won’t be the first female leader of Japan, though: Eight empresses have previously ruled over the island.
Hard Numbers: Daylight robbery at the Louvre, Amazon Web Services goes dark, Ivorians head to the polls next weekend, “No Kings” protests sweep the US
French police officers seal off the entrance to the Louvre Museum after a robbery in Paris, France, on October 19, 2025. Robbers break into the Louvre and flee with jewelry on the morning of October 19, 2025, a source close to the case says, adding that its value is still being evaluated. A police source says an unknown number of thieves arrive on a scooter armed with small chainsaws and use a goods lift to reach the room they are targeting.
2.5: Amazon Web Services, the largest cloud computing provider in the United States, was down for roughly two-and-a-half hours early this morning, disrupting several major economic sectors – including banks, airliners, social media platforms, and many others. AWS reported at 5:30 am ET that the systems were coming back online. The firm is still looking into the root cause of the shutdown, but said it stemmed from problems with Amazon DynamoDB, a system that lends computing power and storage to websites.
4: Tensions are high in Ivory Coast as President Alassane Ouattara seeks a fourth term in Saturday’s election. Ouattara has sidelined his rivals: The 83-year-old leader has banned protests, cracked down on opposition, and ignored calls to step aside. Analysts warn his bid risks reigniting past instability in one of West Africa’s biggest economies.
2,600: An estimated 7 million people joined “No Kings” protests in 2,600 rallies across nearly all 50 states, accusing President Donald Trump of acting like a monarch. Republicans and the White House rebuked the protests.Centrist senator and presidential candidate Rodrigo Paz of the Christian Democratic Party (PDC), speaks onstage as he celebrates following preliminary results on the day of the presidential runoff election, in La Paz, Bolivia, on October 19, 2025.
Bolivia elected a new president on Sunday, the centrist Senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira. The choice marks a sharp break from nearly two decades of left-wing dominance under the Movimiento al Socialismo (MAS). It also makes Bolivia the latest Latin American nation to tilt right, as voters across the region tire of high inflation, rampant crime, corruption, and failed reforms. The shift has big implications for both Bolivia and the area’s economic and political future, as well as its relationship with the United States and China.
Why did Bolivia’s voters leave the left?
Bolivia’s economy is in crisis, due to its change in the past few years from an exporter to importer of oil and gas. This resulted in a foreign-currency shortage as the central bank depleted its reserve of US dollars to buy imported fuel. In 2024, GDP growth was an anemic 1%; in 2025, inflation hit 23%. Bolivia now has regular gas shortages, with motorists lining up for hours at filling stations. Voters blamed the MAS government of former President Evo Morales, who nationalized the oil and gas industry in 2006, initially producing prosperity but eventually faltering due to mismanagement and a lack of investment.
Morales also had a slew of personal failings. In 2019, he fled the country following accusations of corruption, only to return a year later. In 2025, he was charged with statutory rape after fathering a child with a 15-year-old girl, and hid in the jungle to avoid arrest. In the wake of the latest scandal, his party imploded, and MAS’ replacement candidate for president scored a mere 3% in the first round of voting in August.
What does the new president promise to do?
Paz pledged to reform the economy, crack down on crime, and cultivate closer ties with Washington. However, he did not go as far as his chief rival, former President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who campaigned on austerity measures, an IMF bailout, and extensive spending cuts. Paz promoted more incremental change, including tax incentives for small businesses, and greater fiscal autonomy for local governments. He also promised to phase out fuel subsidies, angering labor unions who oppose any cuts to social programs.
Paz’s Christian Democrat Party (PDC) failed to get a majority of seats, meaning that he will have to compromise on some policies to establish a workable coalition. The PDC won 49 of 130 seats in the lower house and 16 of 36 in the Senate, while Quiroga’s coalition, Freedom and Democracy (Libre), won 43 seats in the lower house and 12 in the Senate. While Paz and Quiroga agree on certain policies, such as foreign affairs, on others Paz could find common ground with the Unity party (Unidad Nacional) of Samuel Doria Medina, whose support was instrumental to Paz’s victory in the runoff election.
Part of a pattern?
Across Latin America, the political pendulum has swung away from the “pink tide” of the early 2000s, led by the late Venezuelan strongman Hugo Chavez and Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, as well as socialist parties in Ecuador, Bolivia and Nicaragua. Over the past few years, the governments of Argentina’s Javier Milei, El Salvador’s Nayib Bukele and Ecuador’s Daniel Noboa have all advanced right-leaning agendas, promoting libertarian economics and security crackdowns. In Brazil’s and Chile’s recent municipal elections, center-right parties also made strong gains.
What this means for the US and China
Bolivia will likely align with Washington on trade and foreign policy, which will have implications for China. Morales had cultivated greater alignment with Beijing, as had much of South America: today China is South America’s largest trading partner and the second largest for Latin America after the US. While the Chinese demand for commodities remains strong, friendly right-of-center governments could provide an opening for Washington to divert more of the continent’s critical mineral exports to the American market.
The rightward swing also portends increased cooperation with the US on migration, security, and crime. The Trump administration already has an ally in Bukele, whose notorious supermax prisons are paid to incarcerate American deportees. US President Donald Trump has also declared war on drugs in the region: the CIA is now conducting operations inside Venezuela, the US has struck smuggling vessels carrying both Venezuelan and Colombian nationals, and Trump has now cut off aid to Colombia, calling its president a “drug leader.” Right-wing governments could potentially be more cooperative with Washington on curbing narcotics production and trafficking.
Upcoming elections
Voters in Colombia, Chile, Peru, and Brazil will be going to the polls within the next twelve months. Their choices could either reinforce or reverse the current trend.
“We’re expecting a broader shift to the right in most upcoming elections due to popular frustration with leftist incumbents,” says Eurasia Group’s Latin America Director Risa Grais-Targow. “While Bolivia fits that trend, the election was driven mostly by economic concerns, while votes in Chile, Colombia, and Peru are likely to be shaped more by security concerns, which has become the main voter concern in much of the region.”
But Latin America’s rightward shift isn’t monolithic: according to Grais-Targow, Brazil’s election looks closer to a toss-up, with Lula currently the slight favorite to win. If Paz succeeds in delivering growth, security and investment in Bolivia, however, this weekend’s vote could set the tone for other elections to come.
What We’re Watching: Peru declares state of emergency, Trump to meet Zelensky after Putin call, Bangladesh seeks to end political upheaval
People attend a vigil in memory of Mauricio Ruiz, a 32-year-old man who was killed during Wednesday's protest against Peru's President Jose Jeri, days after Jeri took office, in Lima, Peru, on October 16, 2025.
Peru declares state of emergency in capital city
It’s been a rough period for the country that is renowned for the stunning and peaceful mountain citadel of Machu Picchu. About a month ago, protests broke out against President Dina Boluarte’s pension reforms, government corruption and rising crime. Last weekend, the Congress impeached Boluarte and removed her from office over her failure to address these issues. Now, the Peruvian government is declaring a state of emergency in Lima after the protests, which haven’t stopped, turned deadly – police shot and killed a 32-year-old man on Wednesday at demonstrations outside the Congress.
With Gaza deal done, can Trump bring peace to Ukraine?
US President Donald Trump said he had a “very productive” phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin yesterday, the first time they had spoken since their Alaska meeting in August, adding that they would have another in-person meeting in the Hungarian capital of Budapest in the next few weeks. The call, which the Kremlin said came at Putin’s behest, came right before Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s White House visit, where he was expected to ask about which weapons systems the US can provide him. Trump had reportedly been mulling sending Tomahawk missiles to the Ukrainians, but he appeared to pour cold water on the idea following his chat with Putin.
Bangladesh’s new charter doesn’t please all
Bangladesh has been engulfed by chaos ever since then-Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina allegedly ordered the use of lethal force on student protesters last year. Trying to find a path forward, the South Asian country’s leading parties came together Friday to sign a new political charter. Yet not everyone is happy: Violent protests broke out in Dhaka amid the signing, as demonstrators felt the charter didn’t have a means to guarantee its commitments, including providing justice for the victims of last year’s killings. Meanwhile Bangladeshi prosecutors are seeking the death penalty for the former leader over her actions during last year’s deadly demonstrations. With elections scheduled for February, can the Bangladeshi government establish some calm among its 173-million-strong population?Hamas militant stands guard, as heavy machinery operates at the site where searches are underway for the bodies of hostages killed after being seized by Hamas during the October 7, 2023 attack, amid a ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, in Khan Younis, southern Gaza Strip, October 17, 2025.
Earlier this week, Hamas freed the remaining 20 living hostages who were held in Gaza, while Israel released nearly 2,000 Palestinian prisoners — the first step in their ceasefire deal. As Israeli troops pull back to the agreed-upon line inside Gaza, the next and perhaps most difficult phase begins: Hamas is expected to disarm, relinquish control, and make way for a two key elements of the transition: on the civilian side, a “temporary technocratic government”; and on the military side, an international security force to take Hamas’s place.
Sustaining the peace will require a confluence of factors: real Hamas disarmament; an effective interactional security force, most likely drawn from the Arab world; a civilian, technocratic Palestinian government; and the emergence of a clearer long-term governance plan for Gaza. There are many questions that will need to be addressed between here and there.
First, how strong is Hamas? The war decimated Hamas’s leadership and infrastructure. Many of its top commanders are dead or in hiding, and its political wing has been forced to the shadows. Inside Gaza, many civilians blame Hamas for provoking a war that left the territory in ruins. Meanwhile, clan militias and rival factions are trying to fill the power vacuum.
But Hamas is reasserting control, “deploying thousands of security personnel, especially in key areas like Gaza City, in an effort to uphold security and consolidate its authority,” according to Dr. Reham Owda, an expert on Palestinian politics.
Hamas has also begun executing rivals to exert its military authority over the strip. Among those killed have been members of the powerful Doghmosh clan, long at odds with Hamas. Since Monday, at least 10 members of Hamas’s security forces and some 20 fighters from rival Palestinian groups have died in the internecine clashes, according to the New York Times.
Will Hamas disarm? Despite US and Israeli pressure, the group has shown a reluctance to disarm, fearing it amounts to political suicide. What Hamas may aim for instead is partial disarmament: giving up heavy rockets and tunnels while evolving its internal security wing into a police force. For Israel, given Hamas’s continued calls for the destruction of their state, keeping them in military power is a nonstarter.
What would an international security force look like? A central pillar of Trump’s ceasefire plan is the creation of an international security force to stabilize Gaza during the transition. Owda says that without this force, the conflict will persist on two fronts, “a war between Hamas and the Israeli army, and an internal war between Hamas and family militias.” But she cautions that international troops will only be accepted by Gazans if they are from Arab and Islamic countries. “Palestinian factions will not accept forces from Western countries and may clash with them.”
So far, no country has made a firm commitment to provide troops to the force, but Indonesia, Azerbaijan, and Pakistan are currently in negotiations. The US has said no American troops will be inside Gaza.
Meanwhile, Israel is wary of an international stabilization force in Gaza, which would restrict its freedom of military action — a central tenet of its security doctrine — and might set a precedent for similar arrangements in the West Bank.
Can a technocratic government be established? The recent ceasefire deal called for a “technocratic” Palestinian administration to run Gaza until elections can be held. The plan, championed by Washington and Egypt, would install a committee of non-partisan experts — business leaders, doctors, engineers — to manage day-to-day affairs under the oversight of an international board, with Tony Blair seemingly in the lead — see our recent coverage of his role.
Speaking of a possible technocratic Palestinian administration, Owda says, “These individuals represent the business and civil society sectors, are independent, and mostly hail from prominent Gazan families.” She adds, “However, without international forces, these members will face significant security challenges and lack the capacity to govern the Gaza Strip, as no national government can function effectively without security stability.”
In theory, this model offers a clean slate. It avoids empowering Hamas while ensuring basic services are being provided. But in practice, pulling it off will require a well-armed international security force being installed to keep Hamas at bay.
Longer term, can the Palestinian Authority (PA) return? “Yes, eventually,” says Atlantic Council’s Middle East expert Gina Abercrombie-Winstanley. “The current violence among the remnants of Hamas and other gangs in Gaza is a stark reminder that there must be a clear and strong Palestinian hand in charge in the strip.”
But the PA is also very weak and unpopular. It has been unable to protect Palestinians in the West Bank from the incursions of Israeli settlers, and it has been 20 years since President Mahmoud Abbas last called for elections. Polling conducted in May 2025 by the Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research found President Abbas's approval rating at just 19%, though satisfaction was slightly higher in Gaza at 29%.
As imperfect as the PA is, it does have credibility as a governing body and is best placed to attract wide support among Gazans,” says Abercrombie-Winstanley, noting that elections are key to building trust and sustaining the Palestinian Authority’s credibility.
The ceasefire is only the beginning. Gaza’s future will be defined by whether Hamas relinquishes power, whether technocratic governance can be effective, and whether international forces can maintain security without inflaming local tensions. Every element of the plan faces resistance in some quarter, and any backsliding could reignite violence. For Gazans, the stakes are high: a stable, functioning government could finally bring reconstruction and relief, while failure risks another cycle of destruction.At the World Bank-IMF annual meetings this week, GZERO’s Tony Maciulis spoke to Rania Al-Mashat, Egypt’s Minister of Planning, Economic Development, and International Cooperation, about the enormous task of reconstruction in Gaza and the impact of the war on the region. Watch that conversation here
.Hard Numbers: Chile makes inflation error, Trump indicts ex-ally, Gaddafi’s son seeks freedom from Lebanon, China conduct military purge
Latin America News Agency via Reuters
$117 million: Chile’s government admitted it double counted inflation when setting electricity rates, costing consumers about $117 million. The error triggered a 2% rate cut for January, sent inflation expectations below target, and cost Energy Minister Diego Pardow his job.
18: Former National Security Adviser John Bolton was indicted on 18 counts of mishandling classified information, having been accused of sharing over 1,000 pages of top-secret “diary” notes with family via personal email and apps. Bolton denies wrongdoing, calling the case political. If convicted, the 76-year-old could face life in prison.
$11 million: A Lebanese judge has set bail for Hannibal Gadhafi – the son of the assassinated Libyan dictator Moammar Gadhafi – at $11 million. The younger Gadhafi has been jailed in Beirut for a decade, after Lebanese militants abducted him in an apparent bid to gain information about a Shiite cleric. He hasn’t faced any formal charges.
9: Chinese President Xi Jinping ousted nine high-ranking military officers, including the second-most senior general, in an apparent crackdown against corruption and disloyalty. All nine will face court martial.
What We’re Watching: The CIA returns to LatAm, Russia faces oil squeeze, China cracks down on church network
Venezuela's President Nicolas Maduro prepares to leave at the end of a press conference, days after he said Venezuela would deploy military, police and civilian defenses at 284 "battlefront" locations across the country, amid heightened tensions with the U.S., in Caracas, Venezuela, September 15, 2025.
Does Trump want regime change in Venezuela?
The 1970s called: US President Donald Trump confirmed a report yesterday that he authorized the Central Intelligence Agency to conduct covert operations in Venezuela, the latest military escalation from the White House against the Latin American nation. The exact nature of the operation is unclear, though Trump said he’s exploring land operations. Venezuelan bonds have jumped amid the escalation. So far, the US military has bombed several ships that have come from Venezuela, killing 27 people, but has yet to hit Venezuela within its borders. The US has been rapidly expanding its military presence in the region, which begs the question of whether Trump actually wants to remove Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro from office.
Is Russia about to face the squeeze?
Indian oil refiners are reportedly preparing to cut purchases of Russian oil, a move that could have major consequences for the Kremlin’s war effort in Ukraine. Moscow stands to lose a large tranche of export income: Oil comprises the bulk of its exports, and India is the second-largest importer of this fossil fuel behind China. The move comes as the US explores sending tomahawks missiles to Ukraine – Trump is set to meet with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Washington tomorrow to discuss further military support. There is some debate, though, over whether India will actually turn off the taps – Delhi wants to maintain good standing with Moscow, and appeared to deny the report. For more on why India values its relationship with Russia, read here.
Attending a “house church” in China could get you arrested
China has arrested dozens of Christians in its largest crackdown in years. The arrests are believed to target Zion Church’s underground “house church” network, which operate in private homes outside strict Chinese regulations on religious life. Rights groups say this may signal a wider campaign against underground churches as President Xi Jinping tightens control. US officials including Secretary of State Marco Rubio have condemned the arrests, while Zion Church’s leaders say persecution will only strengthen China’s underground faith.