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The COVID-19 risks you're hearing less about: India, Nigeria, and refugee camps

The COVID-19 risks you're hearing less about: India, Nigeria, and refugee camps

The major outbreaks of coronavirus in China, Europe, and the United States have garnered the most Western media attention in recent weeks. Yesterday, we went behind the headlines to see how Mexico and Russia are faring. Today, we'll look at three other potential hotspots where authorities and citizens are now contending with the worst global pandemic in a century.

Start with India. For weeks, coronavirus questions hovered above that other country with a billion-plus people, a famously chaotic democracy where the central government can't simply order a Chinese-scale public lockdown with confidence that it will be respected. It's a country where 90 percent of people work off the books— without a minimum wage, a pension, a strong national healthcare system, or a way to work from home.


This week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi announced a 21-day lockdown of the entire country, "a total ban on venturing out of your homes." His words triggered an immediate run on shops for all kinds of supplies, and some police have already used force against violators of Modi's order.

Bottom-line: Coronavirus risks to public health (and public order) in India are enormous and growing.

Next to Nigeria, Africa's most populous country and largest economy. Early headlines told a good news story. At the beginning of this week, this country of nearly 200 million people had confirmed fewer than 50 cases of COVID-19 infection. Some have lauded Nigeria's Centre for Disease Control as a model for other countries.

The bad news is that it appears that just 152 people had been tested as of March 22. Compare that with some 15,500 tests conducted in South Africa.

Bottom-line: While Nigeria's health officials have valuable experience in dealing with Ebola, Lassa Fever, and other infectious diseases, it probably lacks the equipment needed to manage a health emergency as broad as COVID-19. And it doesn't help that oil-exporting Nigeria is struggling with the current crude price crash.

Finally, to refugee camps inside Turkey. Concerns are growing for the health of the more than 3 million refugees living in close quarters in camps inside Turkey. Forget the 20-second handwash. Reports from the camps say large numbers go a week without showers, and hundreds share water taps and toilets.

Earlier this month, Turkey's President Erdogan threatened to send large numbers of these desperate people toward Europe in response to events inside Syria that threatened to overwhelm Turkey's ability to cope. That crisis has been averted for now.

But fear is growing that living conditions inside these camps make them an ideal breeding ground for the rapid spread of COVID-19 — and with precious few resources to treat the infected.

Bottom-line: If coronavirus begins sweeping through these camps, how will Turkey cope? Will refugees find themselves caught in a lethal trap between Turkey, Syria, and Europe?

Khant Thaw Htoo is a young engineer who works in Eni's Sakura Tower office in the heart of Yangon. As an HSE engineer, he monitors the safety and environmental impact of onshore and offshore operations. He also looks out for his parents' well-being, in keeping with Myanmar's traditions.

Learn more about Khant in the final episode of the Faces of Eni series, which focuses on Eni's employees around the world.

Over the weekend, some 40,000 Russians braved subzero temperatures to turn out in the streets in support of imprisoned Kremlin critic Alexei Navalny. More than 3,000 protesters were arrested, and Navalny called on his followers to prepare for more action in the coming weeks.

But just who is Alexei Navalny, and how significant is the threat that he may pose to Vladimir Putin's stranglehold on power in Russia?

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The United States has never been more divided, and it's safe to say that social media's role in our national discourse is a big part of the problem. But renowned tech journalist Kara Swisher doesn't see any easy fix. "I don't know how you fix the architecture of a building that is just purposely dangerous for everybody." Swisher joins Ian Bremmer to talk about how some of the richest companies on Earth, whose business models benefit from discord and division, can be compelled to see their better angels. Their conversation was part of the latest episode of GZERO World.

Ian Bremmer's Quick Take (part 1):

Ian Bremmer here, happy Monday. And have your Quick Take to start off the week.

Maybe start off with Biden because now President Biden has had a week, almost a week, right? How was it? How's he doing? Well, for the first week, I would say pretty good. Not exceptional, but not bad, not bad. Normal. I know everyone's excited that there's normalcy. We will not be excited there's normalcy when crises start hitting and when life gets harder and we are still in the middle of a horrible pandemic and he has to respond to it. But for the first week, it was okay.

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Ian Bremmer's Quick Take:

Russian opposition leader Navalny in jail. Hundreds of thousands demonstrating across the country in Russia over well over 100 cities, well over 3000 arrested. And Putin responding by saying that this video that was put out that showed what Navalny said was Putin's palace that costs well over a billion dollars to create and Putin, I got to say, usually he doesn't respond to this stuff very quickly. Looked a little defensive, said didn't really watch it, saw some of it, but it definitely wasn't owned by him or owned by his relatives.

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The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

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