Klein breaks down several overlapping transmission mechanisms already in motion. Early strikes on LNG plants in Qatar cut gas supplies to India, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, forcing those countries to curtail nitrogen fertilizer production while simultaneously driving up gas prices in Europe, where plants have scaled back output. The result: less nitrogen reaching farmers globally, at higher prices, with no compensating rise in commodity prices to offset the cost. The response from farmers is already visible across the globe. Australia has announced a roughly 20% reduction in wheat planting, shifting toward soybeans that require less nitrogen. Klein warns this substitution effect playing out across farming economies worldwide means a meaningful harvest shortfall is already locked in, roughly six to nine months down the line impacting the global food supply.
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