As US-China tensions sharpen around Taiwan and great power competition, Rahm Emanuel argues Beijing’s view of the United States is more complex than simple rivalry. Chinese leaders see real American military capability—one they regard with a mix of “envy and respect”—but that’s not what ultimately shapes their strategy.

But the more decisive factor, he tells Ian Bremmer at the 92nd Street Y, is political. Beijing believes “America is divided at home and incapable of governing”—a weakness that could shape its calculus on whether the US would hold firm in a crisis.

For Emanuel, that internal fragility is the real risk. “Nothing China does scares me,” he says. “It’s what we don’t do here at home that scares me.”