WHAT WE’RE WATCHING/IGNORING

WHAT WE'RE WATCHING

Saudi Arabia's Oil Strategy – Tomorrow, members of OPEC, an organization of large oil producers, will convene in Vienna.


Over the past two months global oil prices have fallen by almost 30 percent, after reaching a high of $86 in early October. Saudi Arabia, the cartel's most powerful producer, hopes to forge an agreement among members and participating "observer states," like Russia, to reduce production with the aim of lifting prices. But it faces a political bind: any attempt to increase prices risks angering President Trump, a frequent OPEC critic, while a continued swoon could damage Saudi Arabia's oil-dependent economy.

The limits of Europe's Big Tech crackdown – A Franco-German effort to tax Silicon Valley giants hit a roadblock this week after a handful of member states objected, forcing Paris and Berlin water down their proposal. Europe has some of the world's toughest data rules and has brought huge antitrust cases against Silicon Valley firms – regulation is one of the ways the 28-member bloc, which lacks its own Silicon Valley, can project digital power in the 21st century. But some EU states remain wary of pushing the companies that will drive the next generation of big digital innovations too far. The debate over digital taxation reveals an important limit to an ongoing crackdown.

WHAT WE'RE IGNORING

Russian attacks on Immanuel Kant – Russia's government recently launched a contentious competition to pick a new name for the airport in Kaliningrad, a small Russian exclave located between Germany and Poland. The territory, which was German (Königsberg) until the end of World War II, is the birthplace of the moral philosopher Immanuel Kant. Once the Kant's name made it to the final round of the contest, things got ugly – mobs have vandalized Kant statues and a senior naval officer there declared him a "traitor to his own country." This sort of behavior almost certainly violates Kant's first categorical imperative. Or is it the second? Either way, it looks like Empress Elizaveta of Russia, who briefly annexed the territory in the 18th century, will get the nod.

Nigeria's really fake first lady – In Tuesday's Signal, we revealed that Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has been forced to defend the fact that he is, in fact, the real Muhammadu Buhari, amid persistent rumors that he died and was replaced by a clone or body double. Today, we are perplexed to report that Nigeria's secret service has detained a real-life fake first lady who was posing as Buhari's wife inside the presidential villa. Elaborate scam? Or sinister attempt to distract from the real scandal? We'll leave it to you to speculate, because we're still ignoring this story.

Imagine losing your child in their first year of life and having no idea what caused it. This is the heartbreaking reality for thousands of families each year who lose a child to Sudden Unexpected Infant Death (SUID). Despite decades-long efforts to prevent SUID, it remains the leading cause of death for children between one month and one year of age in developed nations. Working in collaboration with researchers at Seattle Children's Research Institute and the University of Auckland, Microsoft analyzed the Center for Disease Control (CDC) data on every child born in the U.S. over a decade, including over 41 million births and 37,000 SUID deaths.

By pairing Microsoft's capabilities and data scientists with Seattle Children's medical research expertise, progress is being made on identifying the cause of SUID. Earlier this year, a study was published that estimated approximately 22% of SUID deaths in the U.S. were attributable to maternal cigarette-smoking during pregnancy, giving us further evidence that, through our collaboration with experts in varying disciplines, we are getting to the root of this problem and making remarkable advances.

Read more at Microsoft On The Issues.

William Hague: What is my prediction for the election?

Well, I think that conservatives will definitely have a bigger lead in votes over the Labour Party than at the last election, two years ago. Now that should give them a majority in the House of Commons. But then there will be tactical voting between Labour and Liberal voters against the Conservatives. And there are many undecided people at the last minute. So, I would go for a small conservative majority, maybe around 20 seats, which is also what some of the most sophisticated pollsters have said.

David Miliband: Who do you predict will win the UK elections?

I'm very careful about predictions, especially about the future, as someone famously said. The polls are pretty clear that this has been a dismal campaign, an unpopularity contest in all sorts of ways in which the lesser of two evils is perceived by the voters to be a conservative vote. So, the polls are giving a range of possibilities from a hung parliament right through to a large conservative majority. Obviously, I don't know who's going to win. My tour around the country last week gave me a real sense, a yearning really, for a better choice, for better choices, for more fronting up by the parties, because both parties have done a job of avoiding some of the hardest choices. And so, I predict that whoever wins, there are some very difficult choices ahead. And the sooner that politics is about what you're asking for as well as what you're offering. As Tawney said, after Labour lost the 1931 election, "we offered too much and asked too little." The sooner politics is about shared endeavor, the better for the country.

After a months-long investigation into whether President Donald Trump pressured Ukraine's president into investigating his political rivals in order to boost his reelection prospects in 2020, House Democrats brought two articles of impeachment against him, charging him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Click here for our GZERO guide to what comes next.

In the meantime, imagine for a moment that you are now Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority leader and senior member of Donald Trump's Republican Party. You've got big choices to make.

More Show less

Trump gets his deal – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that Democrats will back the USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Crucially, the bill will also have support from the nation's largest labor union. This is a major political victory for President Trump, who promised he would close this deal, but it's also good for Pelosi: it shows that the Democrats' House majority can still accomplish big things even as it impeaches the president. But with the speed of the Washington news cycle these days, we're watching to see if anyone is still talking about USMCA three days after it's signed.

More Show less