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What We're Watching: Colombian Rebels Rearm

What We're Watching: Colombian Rebels Rearm

Iran – There's a lot going on with Iran this week. The UN's atomic watchdog (great band name!) said Monday that Iran has accelerated production of low enriched uranium, which brings the country closer to violating the Iran nuclear agreement. Then, during a press conference with his German counterpart, Iranian foreign minister Mohammad Javad Zarif issued an uncharacteristically blunt threat, warning that the US "cannot expect to stay safe" after launching what he called an "economic war against Iran." Finally, Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe arrives in Iran today, with Trump's blessing, to try to ease growing tensions and find some basis for talks that might lead to a new US-Iran nuclear deal.

Rebels rearming in Colombia – Just two years after a landmark peace deal between the government and the leftist FARC insurgency, thousands of rebels who laid down their weapons are taking up arms again. They are frustrated at the slow pace of economic and security improvements, particularly in rural areas, that the government pledged as part of the peace accord. Rightwing President Ivan Duque recently failed in his bid to revise the peace agreement, which he sees as too lenient. But unless the government can better deliver the benefits of peace, the deal may fall apart on its own.

European tech firms cutting the world in half – Amid deepening trade and technology rivalry between the US and China, two of Europe's leading technology firms — Nokia and Ericsson — might create separate units for the Eastern and Western hemispheres, according to a report by The Sunday Telegraph. Details are murky, but the idea seems to be to shield the "Western" parts of their businesses from any concerns arising from the "Eastern" units' activities in China, while at the same time protecting the "Eastern" businesses from getting caught in the crossfire between Beijing and the West. Here's how the decoupling of Chinese and Western firms could play out for the tech sector. And here's how it could hit you in the wallet.

What We Are Ignoring

Piranha Executions in North Korea – A British tabloid claims that Kim Jong-un has executed a suspected coup plotter by slashing him with a knife and tossing him into a tank filled with Brazilian piranhas to be devoured. We are ignoring this because the article is a little fishy, so to speak, and because although Kim's brutal streak is well known, we are old enough to remember the last incorrect reports about Pyongyang purges and executions… from last week. As a side note, we think the piranha gets an unjustly bad reputation, but judge for yourself.

A century after the rise and destruction of Tulsa's Greenwood neighborhood, Greenwood Rising is turning the site of a tragedy into a vibrant community hub, supported by a $1 million grant from Bank of America.

Greenwood, or Black Wall Street, was a thriving community of Black-owned businesses until the race-fueled massacre of 1921 that killed hundreds of Black residents and wiped out the neighborhood's homes and businesses. Nearing the 100th anniversary of this tragedy, focused activity in the neighborhood—including a history center—is bringing to life the spirit of Black Wall Street.

The most ambitious global vaccination drive in history is in motion. Over the past three months, more than 213 million COVID-19 shots have been administered across 95 countries, and the vaccination rate is slowly increasing. At the current rate, around 6.11 million doses are being administered daily.

It's a rare bit of hopeful news after 15 months of collective misery. So where do things stand at the moment, and what's keeping the world from getting to herd immunity faster?

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Ian Bremmer shares his perspective on global politics this week:

With protests growing, where does that leave the Myanmar coup?

Well, certainly no feeling on the part of the military that they need to back down under either domestic or international pressure. There's been relatively limited violence, thankfully so far. A few protesters have been killed. They've used tear gas, they've used water cannons, but much less of a crackdown than certainly they're capable of or that we've seen from the Myanmar military historically. That, of course, gives the protesters on the ground more incentive to think that they have success, and they can continue.

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Reducing carbon emissions is good for the planet and good for your lungs, but there's one group of countries that might not be so keen on green: those that rely heavily on oil and gas exports to run their economies. As the rest of the world gets closer to "Net Zero" in the coming decades, these petrostates will be in big trouble unless they diversify their economies — fast. So, how vulnerable are the world's top oil and gas producers to a low-carbon future? We look at how the treasuries of the 20 most hydrocarbon-dependent nations will fare over the next two decades under what the Carbon Tracker Initiative refers to as a scenario in which global demand for oil and gas will be much lower than today.

US to release Khashoggi report: The Biden administration's intel chief is expected to release on Thursday a report on the murder of Saudi dissident journalist — and US resident — Jamal Khashoggi. In line with previously reported findings, the assessment will say that Crown Prince Mohamed bin Salman was involved in the plot to kill and dismember Khashoggi at the Saudi consulate in Istanbul in 2018. Aside from a sprinkling of new details, we don't expect much from the report itself, but we are keen to see how it shapes US-Saudi relations under Joe Biden, who has promised to take a harder line with Riyadh over human rights and security issues than his predecessor did. Part of that new approach is that the US president will no longer speak directly to the Crown Prince himself as Trump did — from now on, only his dad, King Salman, gets calls from the White House.

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The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

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