What We're Watching: Lifting the lid in Ethiopia

Ethiopia's big vote – Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has kept his promise to bring change since arriving in power in April 2018. His push for peace with neighboring Eritrea brought him a Nobel Prize, but his willingness to grant greater autonomy to the country's many ethnic groups has triggered violence, forcing some three million people from their homes during his brief time in office. On Wednesday, members of the Sidama ethnic group, Ethiopia's fifth largest, went to the polls to vote on whether they should have their own regional state within Ethiopia's federal system. That would give them power to make their own policies, spend their own budget on local priorities, and to maintain their own police force. We're watching to see whether the results of the vote will be peacefully accepted—and whether the demands of other groups will cause greater political turmoil in the country.


Israel's uncharted political waters – "Law enforcement isn't optional. It's not a question of politics. It's a duty." So said Israel's Attorney General as he announced Thursday that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu would be indicted on three charges of bribery, fraud, and breach of trust. The indictments further complicate Israel's chaotic political landscape and threaten Netanyahu's bid to remain in power. Netanyahu is now likely to ask the Knesset, Israel's parliament, for immunity, which will delay criminal proceedings by several months. But the Knesset is not fully functional; no coalition government has been formed since Israel's September elections, the second in just six months. A third election is now extremely likely. But in the absence of a body authorized to decide on parliamentary immunity, it's unclear how Netanyahu's request might be considered. In a combative address, Netanyahu insisted the charges are politically motivated, and called on Israelis to "investigate the investigators." These are uncharted political waters, and all eyes are on the judiciary.

Donny Ramone – Fellow Signalista Alex Kliment is not like you and me. Where we see a photo of the handwritten notes that President Trump used on Wednesday to push back at charges he demanded the government of Ukraine investigate his political rival Joe Biden in exchange for military aid, Alex sees 1970s New York-style punk rock lyrics. You need to see this. This isn't the only reason we keep him around, but it's a really, really good one.

What We're Ignoring

Candidate Bloomberg – Former New York City Mayor and billionaire businessman Mike Bloomberg has officially filed his paperwork for the Democratic Party's presidential nomination. But, his spokesperson said on Thursday, that "does not mean he has made the decision to run." We don't think he has a good chance to win anyway.

Imagine losing your child in their first year of life and having no idea what caused it. This is the heartbreaking reality for thousands of families each year who lose a child to Sudden Unexpected Infant Death (SUID). Despite decades-long efforts to prevent SUID, it remains the leading cause of death for children between one month and one year of age in developed nations. Working in collaboration with researchers at Seattle Children's Research Institute and the University of Auckland, Microsoft analyzed the Center for Disease Control (CDC) data on every child born in the U.S. over a decade, including over 41 million births and 37,000 SUID deaths.

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Read more at Microsoft On The Issues.

William Hague: What is my prediction for the election?

Well, I think that conservatives will definitely have a bigger lead in votes over the Labour Party than at the last election, two years ago. Now that should give them a majority in the House of Commons. But then there will be tactical voting between Labour and Liberal voters against the Conservatives. And there are many undecided people at the last minute. So, I would go for a small conservative majority, maybe around 20 seats, which is also what some of the most sophisticated pollsters have said.

David Miliband: Who do you predict will win the UK elections?

I'm very careful about predictions, especially about the future, as someone famously said. The polls are pretty clear that this has been a dismal campaign, an unpopularity contest in all sorts of ways in which the lesser of two evils is perceived by the voters to be a conservative vote. So, the polls are giving a range of possibilities from a hung parliament right through to a large conservative majority. Obviously, I don't know who's going to win. My tour around the country last week gave me a real sense, a yearning really, for a better choice, for better choices, for more fronting up by the parties, because both parties have done a job of avoiding some of the hardest choices. And so, I predict that whoever wins, there are some very difficult choices ahead. And the sooner that politics is about what you're asking for as well as what you're offering. As Tawney said, after Labour lost the 1931 election, "we offered too much and asked too little." The sooner politics is about shared endeavor, the better for the country.

After a months-long investigation into whether President Donald Trump pressured Ukraine's president into investigating his political rivals in order to boost his reelection prospects in 2020, House Democrats brought two articles of impeachment against him, charging him with abuse of power and obstruction of Congress. Click here for our GZERO guide to what comes next.

In the meantime, imagine for a moment that you are now Mitch McConnell, Senate Majority leader and senior member of Donald Trump's Republican Party. You've got big choices to make.

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Trump gets his deal – House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced yesterday that Democrats will back the USMCA, the US-Mexico-Canada trade agreement that will replace the North American Free Trade Agreement. Crucially, the bill will also have support from the nation's largest labor union. This is a major political victory for President Trump, who promised he would close this deal, but it's also good for Pelosi: it shows that the Democrats' House majority can still accomplish big things even as it impeaches the president. But with the speed of the Washington news cycle these days, we're watching to see if anyone is still talking about USMCA three days after it's signed.

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