Will EU & US Sanctions Stop Turkey's Invasion Into Syria?
October 15, 2019
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What's the update at the Syria-Turkey border?
Well, it is increasingly in the hands of Assad and the Russians, who the Kurds have flipped with. The United States withdrawing some troops away from the border, the Turks coming in, but they going to be limited in how much they can do given the fact that ultimately, Assad and Russia has most the firepower and Turkey does not want that fight.
Will E.U. and U.S. sanctions against Turkey stop their invasion into Syria?
Well they won't help, but it's not just about the Turkish economy. It's also, as I just mentioned, the fact that the Russians are prepared to fight and ultimately, they have a lot more equity on the ground in Syria than the Turks do. So, I mean I think Erdogan is going to be able to say: "I beat back some of these Kurds who I consider to be terrorists," as Erdogan would say. But is he going to be able to actually get a safe haven for getting rid of his 3.6 million Syrian refugees? No, he's not. Is he going to be able to take and hold a large swath of Syrian territory ad infinitum? No, he's not. And he doesn't want a major large-scale invading force either. So ultimately, I think this is going to be a smaller military incursion than people think. But ISIS is going to get stronger and that is where Trump's going to really be seen as failing.
How do Hong Kong protesters expect the U.S. to help?
Not very much. Certainly, aren't expecting from the NBA or from the private sector. They're not expecting from the government either. I mean especially with Trump saying: "as long as I'm talking about a trade deal with China I don't want to talk about Hong Kong." And he's in "Phase A" right now, the Chinese haven't sold but ultimately, he's seen as on the back foot as he doesn't want the economy to get hit in the run up to the elections. Hong Kong is very far from the top of the U.S. agenda.
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