Trump’s demands put Europe in FAFO territory

Checking in from the 2026 World Economic Forum in Davos, Ian Bremmer breaks down a deepening crisis in the transatlantic relationship as President Trump escalates pressure on Europe over Greenland.

With European leaders already stretched by the war in Ukraine, economic underperformance, and questions about US reliability, Trump’s renewed insistence that the United States must own Greenland has become a defining test of whether Europe can push back, or whether it fractures under pressure.

As Ian explains, the stakes go far beyond trade disputes or Arctic security: “Trump is coming to Davos to meet with a lot of European leaders at a time when he is threatening to rip up the transatlantic alliance and to engage in undermining the territorial integrity of one of its closest, albeit small, allies. Now, if that's the way this ends up, it's the end of NATO.”

Ian also unpacks his framework for understanding Trump’s foreign policy approach: FAFO vs. TACO, and why countries that can credibly push back fare far better than those that can’t.

Ian breaks down what Greenland reveals about leverage, alliance politics, and whether Europe is capable of acting as a unified power in a rapidly fragmenting global order.