by ian bremmer

Russian President Vladimir Putin against the backdrop of NATO, Ukrainian and US flags.

GZERO Media/ Jess Frampton

Is the US to blame for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine?

That’s what Jeffrey Sachs thinks. In a recent op-ed titled “The War in Ukraine Was Provoked,” the Columbia University professor – a man I’ve known and respected for a solid 25 years, who was once hailed as “the most important economist in the world” and who’s played a leading role in the fight against global poverty – argues that the United States is responsible for Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision to attack Ukraine 15 months ago.

This claim is morally challenged and factually wrong, but it is not a fringe view. Many other prominent figures such as political scientist John Mearsheimer, billionaire Elon Musk, conservative media star Tucker Carlson, and even Pope Francis have made similar assertions, echoing the Kremlin’s narrative that Russia is but a victim of Western imperialism.

This strain of Putin apologia has taken root in China, pockets of the US far left and far right, and much of the developing world, making it all the more important to debunk it once and for all.

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A trader works on the trading floor at the New York Stock Exchange.

REUTERS/Andrew Kelly

If you’re a Republican, you probably think this is the worst economy in American history. If you’re a Democrat, chances are you at least rate it better than when Donald Trump was president.

But the truth is that even if your views weren’t colored by your partisan preferences, there’s enough conflicting data out there to confuse even the best, most apolitical economists.

Thankfully, I’m neither apolitical (I am nonpartisan) nor an economist (political scientists FTW), so if you ask me, I’d say the US economy is … pretty good.

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Jess Frampton

Turkish strongman Recep Tayyip Erdogan is … strong.

Despite most opinion polls predicting a win for main-opposition candidate Kemal Kilicdaroglu, a soft-spoken technocrat who leads the secularist Republican People’s Party (CHP), President Erdogan received 49.5% of the votes in Sunday’s presidential election compared to Kilicdaroglu’s 44.9%. Erdogan’s Islamist Justice and Development Party (AKP) and its People’s Alliance coalition, meanwhile, defied expectations to retain majority control of Turkey’s 600-member parliament.

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Jess Frampton

The dumbest recurring character in US politics (no, not the one you’re thinking), the debt ceiling, is back with a vengeance for yet another season of wholly unnecessary drama.

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Jess Frampton

I haven’t written about the war in Ukraine in a while, largely because not much has changed since my last dispatch on the subject 10 weeks ago. But now that we’re seeing signs that the start of the long-awaited Ukrainian counteroffensive is nearing, it’s time for me to tell you how I think it’s going to go and what it’ll mean for the trajectory of the war.

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Jess Frampton

Well folks, it’s official: He’s running.

On the fourth anniversary of his 2020 campaign launch, President Joe Biden formally kicked off his long-expected bid for reelection on Tuesday with a video framing the 2024 contest as being about “more freedom or less freedom, more rights or fewer.”

“Every generation of Americans has faced a moment when they’ve had to defend democracy, stand up for our personal freedoms, and stand up for our right to vote and our civil rights,” Biden said in his video message featuring images of the Jan. 6 Capitol insurrection and protests of the Supreme Court’s overturning of abortion rights. “This is ours.”

Biden’s announcement sets up a battle for the ages – and of the ages – with former President Donald Trump, who launched his own candidacy for the Republican nomination last November. Biden’s decision to highlight issues like democracy and freedom, which also formed the centerpiece of his 2020 campaign, signals two things.

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Jess Frampton

Following the defeat of right-wing nationalist Jair Bolsonaro to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva last year, many in the West were hopeful that Latin America's most populous nation would become a likeminded partner in promoting democratic norms, upholding the rules-based order, and confronting authoritarian governments.

Yet in his first four months in office, Brazil's President Lula has refused to unequivocally condemn Russia's invasion of Ukraine and chided the United States and Europe for not doing enough to end the war. He’s deepened ties to Moscow and Beijing. He’s dispatched a high-level delegation to meet with Venezuela's dictator Nicolas Maduro. He’s even allowed Iranian warships to dock in Rio de Janeiro.

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