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UK: How likely is an early election?
More likely than not because both Boris Johnson, the Conservatives, Labour, everyone wants to find a way to avoid a no-deal Brexit and the easiest way to do that is to push for an election. Who wins that election? Anybody's guess at this point.
Hong Kong: Will Carrie Lam eventually resign?
I think it's a little more likely now that it's become public that she said she can't resign because the Chinese government isn't allowing her to. But still, until you get an end to this crisis, that probably requires both some people getting tired but also the military intervening, I think Carrie Lam is still there.
Germany: How significant are the far right's gains in regional elections?
They're very significant. They are in former East Germany, where the Germans are pretty upset that they have been left behind, so not a surprise. Kind of like Appalachian Germany. But now they're picking up in the mid 20 percent. You've got the main governing coalition is getting weaker government, probably eventually falls apart. And that's going to be a problem for Germany. But still, you don't have populism like in other countries.
Finally, Afghanistan: Will the U.S.-Taliban deal last?
Well sure, it'll last long enough for Trump to get American troops out and while it's not going to fix Afghanistan, it will be seen in the United States as a win for Trump internationally, one he's had a hard time getting done in a lot of other places like North Korea and Iran.