Israel and Hamas on Wednesday agreed to a phased ceasefire and hostage release agreement, offering the prospect of a halt to the 15-month war, which has visited immense destruction on Gaza, and roiled politics throughout the region and the wider world. By Thursday, there were already signs of trouble.
The terms of the ceasefire – brokered by Qatar, Egypt, and US officials from the Biden Administration and the incoming Trump team – were announced by Qatari officials at a press conference late Wednesday.
Israel’s cabinet still needs to ratify the agreement and was expected to do so on Thursday. But the ministers have not yet met, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office is accusing Hamas of reneging on parts of the deal, which Hamas denies.
What we know: Should Israel formally approve the deal, the first phase, which is to last six weeks, will see Hamas release 33 of the hostages taken during its Oct. 7, 2023, attacks on Israel. In exchange, Israel will free hundreds of Palestinian prisoners held in Israeli jails, though the precise list is not yet known.
In addition, Israel will pull its troops back to the edges of Gaza, though withdrawal from several strategic points, such as the Netzarim Corridor that bisects the enclave, or the Egypt-Gaza border, remains a matter of separate talks.
Palestinian civilians in Gaza will be allowed to return to their homes, or what remains of them after 15 months of war, and a surge of humanitarian aid will pour into the strip.
A second phase would entail further prisoner exchanges, while a third phase would envision a more permanent settlement of Gaza’s status and governance. Both of those phases are to be negotiated during the first phase.
The ceasefire pauses a brutal conflict that erupted after Hamas’ rampage into Israel on Oct. 7, 2023. Israel’s response, which aimed to destroy Hamas, leveled much of the Gaza Strip, killed more than 40,000 people, according to local sources, and pitched the enclave into a severe humanitarian crisis. Israel has severely weakened Hamas, killing its military leader last fall, but has struggled to keep the organization from regrouping and recruiting. Of the roughly 250 hostages taken by Hamas and its allies on Oct. 7, 98 are still being held in Gaza. It is not known exactly how many of them are still alive.
Trump impact. The breakthrough was announced just days before Donald Trump was set to take office in the US. Trump had earlier threatened that “all Hell will break out” if a deal was not struck by the date of his inauguration, Jan. 20. His Middle East envoy, Steve Witkoff, reportedly played a strong role in pushing Netanyahu to accept ceasefire terms that he had earlier rejected in several rounds of diplomacy led by the Biden administration.
“As it demonstrated through this deal, the incoming Trump administration is the sole actor with sufficient leverage to press Israel to make necessary compromises,” said Hugh Lovatt, at the European Council on Foreign Relations.
But he warned that without a durable plan for demobilizing Hamas, setting up local governance in the Gaza Strip, and bringing in international peacekeeping support, the benefits of the ceasefire could fade quickly.
“A ceasefire without meaningful political progress towards ending Israel’s occupation,” he said, “will ultimately prove unsustainable.”
Joe Biden’s view. In a statement Wednesday afternoon, the outgoing president said he believed the deal would put a “permanent” end to the war and claimed credit for the achievement. “We’ve reached this point because of the pressure that Israel built on Hamas, backed by the United States,” Biden said. He also stated that Iran was left weakened by the conflict.
“The United States helped to shape and change the equation, and the terror network that once protected and sustained Hamas is far weaker … Iran is weaker than it has been in decades.”
