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Elections Roundup: Gujarat, Chile, Catalonia

Elections Roundup: Gujarat, Chile, Catalonia

Gujarat: Won. But lost.

The ruling BJP won 99 of the 182 seats up for grabs in Gujarat, home state of popular Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Sure, it’s a majority, but it’s down from the 115 seats it currently holds. A troubling omen ahead of national elections in 2019? As the BJP looks ahead, expect Modi to seek extra support by increasing social spending and loosening the reins on divisive Hindu nationalist elements within the party.


Chile: Right. Maybe.

Former president (and current billionaire) Sebastian Pinera handily beat his center-left opponent in Sunday’s presidential election. Commodity prices will help the economy, but a fractured congress will hinder Pinera’s ability to act. Meanwhile, fringe parties that outperformed in the first round of the election will look to maintain their momentum. Open question whether Pinera’s win is part of Latin America’s “swing to the right” or if we’re on the cusp of a deeper anti-establishment polarization in the country.

Catalonia: Separatism. Light.

Remember when the Catalan regional government held an illegal independence referendum, Spanish police cracked skulls, the Catalans declared independence, and then the Spanish government dissolved the government and called fresh elections? Those elections are this Thursday, and they’ll likely return another separatist-led minority government. Another unilateral push for secession seems unlikely unless separatists win a majority of the vote and/or the seats. Also, as a practical matter, most of the boldest separatist leaders are currently in jail.

Empathy and listening are key to establishing harmonious relationships, as demonstrated by Callista Azogu, GM of Human Resources & Organization for Nigerian Agip Oil Company (NAOC), an Eni subsidiary in Abuja. "To build trust is very difficult. To destroy it is very easy," says Callista, whose busy days involve everything from personnel issues to union relationships. She sees great potential for her native Nigeria not only because of the country's natural resources, but because of its vibrant and creative people.

Learn more about Callista in this episode of Faces of Eni.

Saturday will mark the beginning of an historic turning point for European politics as 1,001 voting members of Germany's Christian Democratic Union, the party of Chancellor Angela Merkel, hold an online conference to elect a new leader.

Here are the basic facts:

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If former Homeland Security Secretary Jeh Johnson could give incoming Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas advice, what would it be? "Well, first I would say, 'Ali, I'm glad it's you, not me.'" His conversation with Ian Bremmer was part of the latest episode of GZERO World.

Listen: For the first time in twenty years extreme poverty around the world is growing. How does the developing world recover from a pandemic that has brought even the richest nations to their knees? David Malpass, the President of the World Bank, is tasked with answering that question. He joins Ian Bremmer on the podcast to talk about how his organization is trying to keep the developing world from slipping further into poverty in the wake of a once-in-a-century pandemic.

Does Cuba belong back on the US's State Sponsors of Terrorism list? The Wall Street Journal Editorial Board showed their support for Secretary of State Mike Pompeo's decision on this issue in a recent opinion piece, "Cuba's Support for Terror." But in this edition of The Red Pen, Ian Bremmer and Eurasia Group analysts Risa Grais-Targow, Jeffrey Wright and Regina Argenzio argue that the WSJ's op-ed goes too far.

We are now just a few days away from the official end of Donald Trump's presidency, but the impacts of his latest moves in office will obviously last far beyond Joe Biden's inauguration. There's the deep structural political polarization, the ongoing investigations into the violence we saw at the Capitol, lord knows what happens over the next few days, there's also last-minute policy decisions here and abroad. And that's where we're taking our Red Pen this week, specifically US relations with Cuba.

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The GZERO World Podcast with Ian Bremmer. Listen now.

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