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Saudis face reality on oil prices

Saudi Arabian flag with stock graph and an oil pump jack miniature model are seen in this illustration.

Saudi Arabian flag with stock graph and an oil pump jack miniature model are seen in this illustration.

REUTERS/Dado Ruvic
Willis Sparks
By Willis SparksSeptember 26, 2024
Willis Sparks
Willis Sparks is a senior editor for GZERO Daily. He is also a Director in the Global Macro practice at Eurasia Group, where he has worked since 2005. He has made speeches on international politics on every continent except Antarctica. Willis holds degrees from Brown University, the Juilliard School, Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, and the Institut d'Etudes Politiques in Paris. He also holds an honorary degree from the Moscow Art Theatre School. A native of Macon, Georgia, Willis has worked as a stuntman at New York's Metropolitan Opera. As a child, he declined an opportunity to spend an afternoon riding the Great American Scream Machine, a rollercoaster, with Ronald McDonald, for money. He has never regretted that decision.
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Saudi Arabia has reportedly decided to produce more oil beginning Dec. 1, allowing global crude prices to fall. It’s an admission that increased oil production in the United States and other non-OPEC members has combined with lower oil demand from China to drop prices well below the level the Saudis would prefer. By producing more, the Saudis hope to claim a larger share of oil market revenues.

Since November 2022, Saudi Arabia has led the grouping of OPEC members plus Russia in maintaining oil supply cuts to try to keep prices as close as possible to an unofficial target of $100 per barrel for Brent crude. Not coincidentally, the IMF estimates Saudi Arabia need $100 barrels to balance its budget as Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman funds hugely expensive development projects as part of his Vision 2030 economic reform plan. Saudi Arabia is currently producing 8.9 million barrels a day, its lowest level in more than a decade.

The lower price will be good news for incumbent politicians facing public anger over broader inflation. That’s also true for Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris, whom Donald Trump has blamed for higher prices for US consumers. The Saudi decision will keep gasoline prices in check through the US election.

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