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Déjà vu in Israel: Another government crumbles
Political tumult is again the order of the day in Israel, where the fifth election cycle in three years is about to kick off. Crippled by dysfunction and tribalism, Israel has joined the ranks of countries like Italy and Greece, where general elections have been known to occur with infuriating frequency.
What sparked the latest government collapse, and how might Israel overcome this period of chronic stalemate?
Background. It was a very big deal last June when a new Israeli government was sworn in that was not headed by someone called Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, who had held the top job for 12 years. The man responsible for cobbling together the politically diverse coalition was Yair Lapid, a 58-year-old former journalist who entered the political fray in 2013 and heads the centrist Yesh Atid (There Is a Future) Party.
By all accounts, the coalition government – headed for the past 12 months by rightwing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett – was a remarkable success in that … it existed. The bloc included a ragtag grouping of eight political parties – notably including an Arab Islamist party – united by nothing more than animus towards Bibi.
That coalition, however, began to crumble in recent months after a couple of right-wing lawmakers defected, robbing the government of its majority. Also in recent weeks, left-wing and Arab coalition members refused to back key legislation, making it clear that the minority government’s days were numbered. According to the coalition agreement inked last summer, Lapid, currently serving as foreign minister, will take over as interim PM until the next coalition is formed after the October polls.
The Bibi of it all. Bibi has been dreaming of this day since he was relegated to opposition status last year, forced to give up the trappings of PM life. While his right-wing Likud Party and allies remain the biggest parliamentary bloc, early polls show that he still wouldn’t have the 61-seat majority needed to win back the top job if elections were held today.
A longtime politician, Bibi has in recent years burned bridges with several right-leaning parties and former Likud members who would appear to be his natural political allies. Still, the forever-politician will do everything in his power to change that over the next 12 weeks.
The Biden of it all. This latest turmoil comes just weeks before US President Joe Biden is set to visit Israel, the Palestinian territories, and Saudi Arabia. While this throws a spanner in the works for the White House – which has been coordinating a very sensitive trip to the region with the Bennett-led government – for Lapid, the timing of the handover is perfect.
“Israelis are suckers for positive, warm attention, and visits from US presidents – no matter who the president is – are a huge deal,” says Neri Zilber, a Tel-Aviv based journalist and policy advisor at the Israel Policy Forum.
Biden’s upcoming visit “will be a major moment for Lapid to burnish his reputation, image, and standing as a real prime minister and a global statesman, especially among the Israeli public,” he adds. Indeed, many Israelis don’t see the former TV personality as having the grit or gravitas for the job.
Breaking the stalemate. The election outcome will in large part be decided by the ability of the current anti-Netanyahu bloc to again awkwardly hold hands and join forces. Prospects for such an alliance, however, are further complicated by the fact that several of these parties could fall short of the electoral threshold needed to sit in the Knesset, Israel’s parliament.
But even if the same or a similar anti-Bibi bloc manages to ink a deal, it would only be a bandaid.
Part of the problem, says Anshel Pfeffer, The Economist's Israel correspondent and a senior writer for Haaretz, is structural. “The system has a bit of inherent political instability in it,” he says, including the very low threshold (3.25%) for small parties to make it into parliament.
And then, of course, there’s Bibi, the Israeli right’s juggernaut, who has in recent years waged war on state institutions and exploited ideological differences within the Knesset – and society – partly to distract from his own legal woes.
“If Bibi were out of the equation, would the Israeli political system recalibrate itself?” Pfeffer asks himself. “I think there’s a chance that it would. But it is far from a given.”
“There are other issues that aren’t being talked about, like state vs. religion, inclusion of Arab citizens within the government, executive vs. judicial powers” that would surely persist in a post-Bibi era, Pfeffer adds. “There’s no question that Netanyahu is fueling these things. But it doesn't necessarily mean that once he’s gone that these issues will be less toxic.”
And there’s another crucial factor that could upend the cycle of stalemate that many analysts are focused on: the Arab-Israeli vote, which has long been ignored by the Israeli political establishment. But that has changed since the Bennett-Lapid coalition included Raam, an Arab-Israeli party, for the first time in history.
“The fact that the Israeli Arabs are now in play, at least they have been over the past year … is a huge structural game changer in Israeli politics,” says Zilber, noting that for decades this 20% of the citizenry “were considered out of bounds.”
Indeed, the structural advantage the Israeli right has enjoyed for decades is beginning to shift.
Israeli PM Naftali Bennett speaks next to Foreign Minister Yair Lapid at the Knesset in Jerusalem.
What We're Watching: Bennett throws in the towel in Israel, Petro wins in Colombia, Macron loses majority in France
Israel faces fifth election in three years
Israelis are headed to the polls, again, for the fifth time in just over three years. After almost two months of being on the brink of collapse following a number of high-profile defections that made it lose its parliamentary majority, the fragile eight-party coalition government led by PM Naftali Bennett is set to disband. In the coming days, Bennett and his main coalition partner, Foreign Minister Yair Lapid, intend to dissolve the Knesset (parliament) and call a fresh election in October or November. Lapid will serve as caretaker PM once Bennett steps down, but Bennett will retain the Iran portfolio as part of the power-sharing agreement. Former PM Benjamin “Bibi” Netanyahu, who now heads the opposition, celebrated the demise of an unwieldy government whose members could pretty much only agree that they didn't want him as prime minister. Bibi, for his part, is (surprise!) gunning for a return to power despite being on trial for corruption. Will his rightwing Likud Party win enough seats and allies to cobble together a majority to form a government, or will Israel's political deadlock continue with no end in sight?
Colombia lurches left
For the first time in its history, South America’s third-largest economy will have an avowed leftist as president. Gustavo Petro, the former mayor of Bogota who was a guerrilla rebel in his youth, won the presidency decisively on Sunday, defeating upstart real-estate tycoon Rodolfo Hernández by more than 700,000 votes. Petro finally got lucky in his third run for president by promising big changes to a country wracked by the economic impacts of the pandemic, rising violence, and two recent waves of protests over inequality. He has pledged to redistribute wealth, wean the country off of oil and coal exports, and build a more inclusive society in one of the world’s most unequal countries. His running mate, Francia Márquez, becomes the first vice president of African descent in South America. When he takes office in August, Petro will immediately face stiff resistance from the country’s conservative business and political elites and will have to work hard to broaden his coalition in a fractious congress where he does not hold a majority. He may also encounter pushback from the US, Colombia’s closest ally, over his plans to legalize certain drugs, revise the US-Colombia free trade pact, and normalize ties with Venezuela.
Macron’s agenda hits major snag
Whiplash alert in French politics. Two months after getting re-elected as president, Emmanuel Macron saw his party lose its parliamentary majority by a bigger-than-expected margin in Sunday's second round of legislative elections. Macron's centrist Ensemble (Together) Party secured only 245 seats, not even close to the 289 it needed for a majority in the National Assembly. Nupes, a progressive coalition led by the far-left presidential candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon, came in second with 131, while Marine Le Pen's far-right National Rally got its best result ever with 89 seats. What does this mean for Macron, and for the country? The French president will now need the support of establishment conservatives to advance his reform agenda, because both Mélenchon and Le Pen oppose his plans to boost the government’s financial health by pushing the standard retirement age from 62 to 65, on top of more basic reforms meant to cut public spending and help businesses weather tough economic times. "France now faces the prospect of a period of prolonged political instability — with a war raging in Ukraine and the growing threat of an economic downturn at home," tweeted Eurasia Group's top Europe analyst Mujtaba Rahman.Note: The original version of this article incorrectly listed the Israeli government coalition as having seven parties, not eight.
Pro-Russia protesters burn a Ukrainian flag outside the district council building in Donetsk.
What We’re Watching: Russian annexation fears, Russia-Israel drama, Mali breaks from France
Will Russia annex more of Ukraine?
The US is warning that Russia plans to formally annex the Donbas regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, along with the city of Kherson, which Moscow has controlled since early March and where it has introduced the ruble. This wouldn't be the first time Russia illegally swiped a chunk of Ukraine – the Kremlin has run Crimea since holding a bogus referendum there on “joining Russia” in 2014. Washington believes Moscow will soon announce similar votes in the Donbas and Kherson — perhaps as soon as Russia’s Victory Day (a World War II celebration) on May 9. This major Russian holiday has become even more important now that the Kremlin frames its war in Ukraine as a fight against “Nazism.” Symbolism aside, why would Putin do this? For one thing, he needs to show something for his war effort, and he may want to make these territories bargaining chips in any eventual talks with Kyiv. But there's a downside for him, too: successfully holding these areas will mean pacifying hostile populations and supporting battered economies. Does Russia really have the military and financial wherewithal to do all that?
An Israeli-Russian war of words
Israel has taken a cautious approach toward Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine, mainly because Russia can make life more dangerous for Israel in neighboring Syria. Prime Minister Naftali Bennett’s government has sympathized with Ukraine but kept its Kremlin criticism to a minimum. That changed dramatically this week when an Italian journalist asked Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov how Ukraine can be run by Nazis, a standard Kremlin talking point, when Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky is Jewish. Lavrov asserted that Adolf Hitler had “Jewish blood” and that “the biggest anti-Semites are the Jews themselves.” In response, Yair Lapid, Israel’s foreign minister, said that “Jews did not murder themselves in the Holocaust” and labeled Lavrov’s comments as “the lowest level of racism.” His office demanded an apology from Moscow, but those hoping for an apologetic response were disappointed. The “anti-historical" comments from Israeli officials, Moscow said, help explain why their government “supports the neo-Nazi regime in Kyiv.” Israel’s response to this war of words? It reportedly plans to send defensive military equipment to Ukraine — at a symbolic level — while trying to keep its ties to Russia intact.
Mali-France (military) breakup is official
Mali has terminated its defense cooperation with France, claiming that it violated the country's territorial integrity by entering its airspace without permission. The move puts an end to nine years of French military presence in Mali, which in January 2013 asked the former colonial power to send in troops to help beat back jihadists in the aftermath of a coup. But the military seized power again in August 2020, and the now-ruling junta immediately soured on Paris, which responded by withdrawing its soldiers. Since then, bilateral ties have cratered amid rising anti-French popular sentiment. With local forces ill-equipped to fight the jihadists controlling vast swaths of the country, Russian mercenaries employed by a firm with ties to Vladimir Putin have stepped in to help, training Malian forces and stirring up trouble for the departing French. (France, Mali, and Russia recently had a trilateral beef over the discovery of a mass grave near an army base formerly used by French forces.)Putin greets Orbán during their meeting at the Kremlin in 2018.
What We’re Watching: Hungary hearts Russian gas, Israeli government in trouble, Ukrainian exodus
Hungry for Russian gas, Budapest will pay in rubles
Fresh off his decisive election victory last weekend, Hungarian PM Viktor Orbán broke with the rest of the EU on a key point of pressure against Moscow on Wednesday, saying he’s ready to pay for Russian natural gas in rubles if the Kremlin asks him to. Russian President Vladimir Putin recently threatened to cut off gas entirely to the EU — which relies on Russia for 40 percent of its supplies — unless member states pay for the stuff using Russian currency. Although the Brussels says no way, it’s ultimately up to each individual country to decide what it wants to do. Orbán, among the most Russia-friendly leaders in the EU, also runs a country that depends entirely on Kremlin-exported gas. Still, while Budapest may be going rogue against the rest of the EU on this, it wouldn’t make much of a financial difference for Moscow: Hungary accounts for just 3% of Russia’s gas exports to the continent. Meanwhile, stricter US sanctions — which include Russia’s largest bank since Wednesday — are pushing the country closer to a technical default on its sovereign debt.
Is Israel headed for yet another election?
Things had been going surprisingly well for Israel’s PM Naftali Bennett and his ideologically diverse governing coalition, which many anticipated would collapse immediately after coming to power last summer. But things just got a lot more precarious for Bennett, head of the right-wing Yamina Party. On Wednesday, his coalition lost its parliamentary majority when party whip Idit Silman defected to the opposition (leaving a 60-60 split). Silman was reportedly lured over by the head of the opposition and former PM Bibi Netanyahu. Bennett is now in damage control mode, trying to stave off any more defections. For now, the government can survive without a majority – though it won’t be able to pass any serious legislation. More defections could lead to a no-confidence vote and a fresh election, which would be the fifth in three years. Bennett won’t have much power but can cruise along. The question is, for how long?
The exodus from eastern Ukraine has begun
As Russia appears to pull its forces from Kyiv and intensify efforts to capture and consolidate land between Russian-occupied territories in the Donbas region and Crimea, Ukrainian and international officials are scrambling to save lives that might be caught in the crossfire. On Wednesday, the International Committee of the Red Cross was finally able to escort a convoy of vehicles that evacuated more than 1,000 civilians from the besieged city of Mariupol on Ukraine’s southeast coast. For now, tens of thousands remain trapped there. Ukraine’s deputy prime minister also urged residents in the eastern provinces of Kharkiv, Donetsk, and Luhansk to leave those areas before an expected surge in fighting makes it impossible to stage an organized exit. (Later in the day, an official in Kharkiv questioned whether that was necessary, given Ukraine’s military strength.) In short, a pause in the fighting as Russia regroups before launching a renewed assault on eastern and southeastern Ukraine will allow some to escape from newly intensified fighting. Yet, age, illness, and other limitations will leave many more in harm’s way.Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett
Will Bennett ditch Ukraine peace talks to focus on domestic terror?
Israel is facing its worst domestic terror wave in nearly a decade after 11 people were killed in three cities in just one week.
Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who’s been focused on high-stakes international diplomacy in recent weeks, is now mounting a full-court press to contain the deteriorating security situation at home.
What are the domestic and international implications of the brutal terrorism plaguing Israel?
The attacks. On Sunday, two Israeli Arabs linked with the Islamic State killed two people in the city of Hadera north of Tel Aviv. Last week, another assailant killed four people in the southern city of Beersheba.
On Tuesday, a 27-year-old Palestinian man from the West Bank broke through a security barrier before gunning down five people in a suburb of Tel Aviv. Two of the victims were Ukrainian nationals.
The timing of this terror surge could not be worse. It comes just days before the holy month of Ramadan, during which many Muslims make a pilgrimage to the al-Aqsa mosque in Jerusalem’s Old City, a pressure cooker at the best of times.
Before the attacks, Israeli authorities had been planning to increase entry permits for elderly Muslims to pray at al-Aqsa and to ease freedom of movement for Palestinians during Ramadan. The Biden administration, for its part, had asked the Bennett government to take preemptive steps to avoid the sort of clashes seen in Jerusalem last May that contributed to an 11-day war between Israeli forces and Hamas in the Gaza Strip.
Despite the uptick in violence, Israel will keep this plan in place, says Anna Ahronheim, a military correspondent for the Jerusalem Post. “I think Israel will try its best to allow those with permits – including the 20,000 from Gaza – to continue to work in Israel,” she says. But that will involve “heavy scrutiny on those crossing.”
What’s more, Ramadan this year coincides with both Easter and Passover, meaning that amid the already-heightened temperature there will be more Jews, Muslims, and Christians making their way to flashpoint sites in Jerusalem.
"This all relates back to the events of last May," says Kobi Michael, a senior researcher at the Tel Aviv-based Institute for National Security Studies. “It is part of a system of terror. Everything is related, and Hamas [in the Gaza Strip] is a very significant generator of this system."
The deteriorating security situation comes as Bennett has been trying to establish himself as an international statesman. Since coming to office last year, Bennett has sought to change the perception among some Israelis that Likud stalwart Benjamin Netanyahu, his longtime predecessor, is the only politician capable of representing Israel’s complex strategic interests on the international stage.
And Bennett’s been doing fine on that count. Just this week, his government hosted four Arab states – Bahrain, Morocco, the United Arab Emirates, and Egypt – as well as the United States, for a summit in the Negev desert focused on boosting Israeli-Arab relations. While there were no actionable items on the agenda, it does highlight Israel’s growing clout in the region.
More crucially, Bennett’s image as an elder statesman has been further burnished by his middleman status in the Russia-Ukraine quagmire. He recently visited Moscow to try and broker a truce, and the Financial Times has described the Israeli PM as the “primary international mediator” between the warring sides. Most recently, a Ukrainian delegation led by a top aide of President Voldoymr Zelensky arrived in Jerusalem on Wednesday to review a potential cease-fire with Russia – a plan discussed during high-level peace talks in Istanbul earlier in the week.
Some sources say Bennett has moved the Ukraine issue to the back burner so long as the security situation at home remains precarious. But Michael disagrees. He doesn't think the situation at home will distract from mediation efforts in Ukraine because the Bennett government can walk and chew gum at the same time.
To be sure, it’s unclear how crucial the Israelis are to ongoing negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, or, for that matter, how serious the Kremlin really is about de-escalation. Still, Moscow and Kyiv have made clear that Israel is one of very few countries they both trust, so Bennett pulling back from mediation efforts doesn’t bode well for peace efforts.
Elon Musk, Time Person of the Year? Naftali Bennett visits UAE
Ian Bremmer shares his insights on global politics this week with a look at Naftali Bennett's first official visit to the UAE, China's response to recent US sanctions, and Elon Musk's chances at Time Person of the Year.
How did Naftali Bennett's first official visit to the UAE go?
Went extremely well. This was probably President Trump's largest and most unexpected foreign policy success, The Abraham Accords, which meant opening diplomatic relations between Israel and the UAE, in addition to other countries in the region. Now we have the prime minister of Israel touching down on an official visit in the UAE, where he met with Mohammed bin Zayed, who is the defacto ruler of all of the Emirates, as well as a lot of other leaders. We're seeing more investment, more tourism, and we're also seeing more intelligence cooperation, especially around issues like Iran, where frankly, both the Arab governments and the Israelis have problems. Big question everyone's watching out for is when are the Saudis going to open up to Israel? The Saudis are really reluctant in part because they feel like that would seed too much ground to Iran on the Palestinian question, and also lead to much more pushback given a much more conservative Saudi population. The UAE is one of the most cosmopolitan populations out there, frankly.
How will China "strike back" responding to recent US sanctions?
Strike back is exactly what the Chinese government said they would do. This was right in advance to the United States announcing it before that Democracy Summit that they hosted, both of which were things that weren't clearly meant to make the Chinese happy. In particular, there were sanctions against SenseTime, which is this Chinese technology company that is involved a lot in data and surveillance, including helping the Chinese Government surveil the Uyghurs, systematic repression that's been going on against them. Look, I think that the Chinese Government clearly does not want to seriously unravel US/China investment and trade relations, especially given big challenges in China in managing zero COVID. They're going to have difficulties meeting reasonable growth targets this year and next year as a consequence of all of that. But they're not going to just sit and stand by idly when the Americans are putting sanctions on very important, indeed technologically strategic Chinese companies. I think they will be tit for tat, and I don't think the Americans are likely to have a second round of escalation as a consequence. Keep in mind that both countries also want to reduce inflation and are trying to see if they might reduce some of the tariffs that came under the Trump administration back and forth with President Xi. Even as the Chinese are escalating their sanctions in response to the United States, there will also be areas of collaboration.
Elon Musk, Time Person of the Year. Thoughts?
I think he's an enormously complicated character. There's some things that I frankly admire immensely about him, the way he's managed to think of entirely new ways of doing global business and make them a reality, both in terms of electric vehicles and supply chain to support that, as well as re-imagining private space and doing so much more effectively than people like Bezos or Richard Branson, who's really just doing high altitude tourism. That really matters. But I also think he's incredibly irresponsible in the way he talks to, engages in the public. He's very narrow in his expertise and interest, which is absolutely great for making hundreds of billions of dollars and horrible for opining on how a political system should run. For that, I wish he had more humility. I'd love to see people who are absolutely brilliant in their space owning that and recognizing where are the areas they're not brilliant. One of the problems that American entrepreneurs frequently have when they become super rich and super powerful is they think that all the people blowing smoke up their ass make them brilliant on absolutely everything. That's an area that I think we could see a lot more support if people like Elon Musk and Jeff Bezos were willing to take a little step back and try to see themselves objectively. But I do think he really should have been Time Person of the Year in the sense that Time Person of the Year is who had the most impact globally. As one individual in the technopolar world, Elon Musk is probably number one in that regard.
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What We're Watching: Israel finally gets a budget, US expands vax mandate, Portugal elections loom
Israel's political breakthrough. Israel's government has passed a budget for the first time in more than three years. This might sound boring, but it's actually a big deal: for years, former PM Benjamin Netanyahu refused to do it for political reasons, resulting in a lengthy stalemate with four divisive elections in just two years. Getting it done is a big win for Prime Minister Naftali Bennett, who managed to get his ideologically-diverse coalition of eight parties to agree on the 2021 budget. Failure to pass it by November 14, as per the coalition deal, would have resulted in yet another election, likely a death knell for the current government which only came together this summer at the eleventh hour. The bill includes $10 billion for Arab communities over five years demanded by Mansour Abbas, head of Ra'am, an independent Arab party that serves in the coalition. For now, Bennett and his main partner, the centrist Yair Lapid, are proving wrong the naysayers who warned that the diverse coalition was doomed to collapse. Negotiations now continue over next year's budget ahead of the March 2022 deadline, but passing the 2021 budget has made a fresh vote — and Netanyahu's dream of returning to power — even less likely.
Joe Biden's New Year's vaccination mandate. In a bid to boost slowing vaccination rates in the US, the Biden administration has ordered that workers at all companies with more than 100 employees around the country must be fully vaccinated by January 4 or submit to weekly COVID testing. The order will apply to more than 80 million workers, according to the AP, and will include exemptions for medical or religious reasons. Companies that fail to comply will face fines of up to $14,000 per violation, though it's not clear exactly how the Feds plan to enforce the measure at every one of the thousands of companies affected nationwide. At the moment, 58 percent of US adults are vaccinated, a figure that trails other large democracies such as the EU (75 percent), Japan (73 percent), the UK (68 percent). Even Brazil, which had a lousy start to the vaccine rollout, has now surpassed the US in first doses. The new mandate will likely boost the US numbers, but it's also certain to further inflame the political polarization around vaccine mandates. Although a recent Gallup poll showed 58 percent of Americans support a mandate for companies with 100 employees or more, the split was sharply partisan: only 17 percent of Republicans agree with the idea.
What to expect at the Biden-Bennett meeting at the White House
For the first time since assuming their posts, Israel's right-wing Prime Minister Naftali Bennett and US President Joe Biden will meet Friday for a face-to-face meeting at the White House. (Fun fact: Joe Biden was elected to the US Senate in 1972, the year Naftali Bennett was born.)
What's on the agenda — what likely isn't — and why does this meeting matter now?
Iran, obviously. Bennett may embrace a more conciliatory tone than his predecessor Bibi Netanyahu, but when it comes to Iran policy, he too thinks that a return to the nuclear deal would be catastrophic for Israel. For the Israelis, delivering that message feels all the more pressing given that their security establishment now warns that Tehran is only two months away from being able to produce a nuclear weapon.
So, what's President Biden's view? Well, Biden is still adamant that a return to the JCPOA — the nuclear agreement agreed to in 2015 by Iran along with China, France, Germany, Russia, the UK, and the US — is a foreign policy priority. Biden remained gung-ho as recently as June when relevant players met in Vienna to chart a path forward.
But that was before the fiasco in Afghanistan, which has thrown the Biden administration, and its foreign policy agenda more broadly, into disarray. Indeed, after the bungled withdrawal it's entirely possible that the US will want to stall on the Iran negotiations, which remain in limbo. After all, it would be a PR calamity for the stalemate with the Iranians to be back in the news while the debacle in Afghanistan — which seems unlikely to be resolved anytime soon — continues.
However, even if Biden does suspend or slow roll talks, that's still unlikely to placate the Israelis, who are worried that the Iranians will further develop their nuclear program while the US and Europeans are distracted with Kabul.
While Bennett doesn't want a new nuclear deal, he might prefer the certainty of that to the limbo of a Biden White House that is stalling Iran talks in order to buy time to recover from the Afghanistan chaos. At least then Israel could prepare for what comes next.
Though details remain scarce, Bennett reportedly plans to present an alternative to the JCPOA that also addresses Iran's destabilizing activities in the region, and is also expected to ask Washington for more funds to bolster its military capabilities against Iran and its proxy forces.
The China equation. Few people think of China as a wedge issue in US-Israel relations. But in recent years, it's emerged as a point of friction.
Israel, for its part, has been trying to bolster economic ties with Beijing for years, seeking increased Chinese investment in Israeli infrastructure and technology. But as Washington increasingly sees Beijing as its main rival, it has put pressure on the Israelis to temper cooperation with the Chinese. For example, after Washington scolded the Israelis for signing a contract with a Chinese firm to operate a private shipping seaport off Haifa's port, Israel turned down a Hong Kong firm's bid to develop a water desalination plant worth a whopping $1.5 billion.
In a sign of how pressing the issue is for the Americans, CIA Director Bill Burns raised China concerns directly with PM Bennett on a recent visit to Israel, after a Chinese company won a tender for a massive transportation project in the Tel Aviv metro area.
What's not really on the agenda? The Palestinians. While the Biden administration may pay lip service to to the Palestinian cause, the moribund peace process is unlikely to occupy much time at all. This suits both Biden and Bennett just fine: the US president has made clear that he is focused on making domestic gains, particularly ahead of midterm elections next year. Meanwhile, Bennett, who heads to Washington amid a flareup of violence on the Gaza border, heads an ideologically-diverse coalition government that has all but agreed not to touch the Palestinian issue.
Give and take. Some analysts have suggested that Bennett could offer to take in a small number of Afghan refugees as a goodwill gesture to a beleaguered Biden — similar to when Menachem Begin accepted 370 Vietnamese refugees in the late 1970s after the fall of Saigon. While that might boost mutual confidence in the short term, it's unlikely to significantly move the needle on these extremely thorny issues.