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Pita Limjaroenrat, leader of Thailand's Move Forward Party, reacts after failing to win parliamentary support to become prime minister.
Political trouble brews in the Land of Smiles
Late on Thursday, the Thai parliament rejected opposition leader Pita Limjaroenrat's bid to become the country’s next prime minister. Pita, whose progressive Move Forward Party won the May 14 election, was 51 votes shy of the supermajority needed to clinch the premiership. (For more on that, read our explainer here.)
It's been a hell of a week for the 42-year-old Pita, who campaigned on loosening the country’s draconian lèse-majesté laws, known popularly as "112" for the number of the article in the criminal code. Before losing the vote for the top job, election authorities tried to disqualify him as MP for running while he owned shares in a media company — doing that is illegal under a law that the ruling pro-army coalition passed in order to prevent former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, a media mogul, from ever returning to power.
What’s next? Although parliament will hold another vote next week, Pita is unlikely to do better. His unprecedented push to water down 112 is a bridge too far for the establishment parties whose support he’d need.
If Pita bows out, things could get interesting. Thaksin himself could return from exile under a possible deal between his Pheu Thai party and those that support the military backed-government. But that could trigger protests by angry young Thais who support Pita and the MFP.
Bracing for violent demonstrations, the army has already ringed the parliament building in Bangkok with shipping containers. But if Pita doesn’t get the PM nod, that might not be enough to contain angry Gen-Zers in a country that's seen its fair share of political protests — as well as coups to end them.Move Forward Party, Pheu Thai party, and coalition partner leaders sign an MOU in Bangkok, Thailand.
Uncertain Thai premiership vote
On Monday, the Thai parliament will meet for the first time since the May 14 election to pick the next prime minister. Whoever gets the nod, some people won't be happy about it in a country with a checkered history of political turmoil: shaky governments, colorful protests, and military takeovers.
The candidate with the most support is Pita Limjaroenrat, the baby-faced leader of the progressive Move Forward Party, which won the most seats in the election. But a multi-party coalition headed by the MFP doesn't have enough votes to overcome a de facto army veto in the Senate. For more on this, read our primer.
If by some miracle Pita finds the votes to clinch the premiership, the ruling generals will look for ways to oust him, such as using the loyal courts to disqualify him on bogus charges. (The ultra-conservative, royalist elite views Pita as a spoiled brat who wants to kneecap the king's power.)
But the most likely outcome is either an army-backed minority government or the Pheu Thai (For Thais) party — supported by influential ex-PM Thaksin Shinawatra — cutting a deal with pro-establishment forces. That might include a pardon for Thaksin to return to Thailand after 15 years in exile.
Either scenario will surely trigger mass protests led by young people, who overwhelmingly voted for Pita and took to the streets in 2020-2021 to challenge the political elite. And if there’s violence, remember the Thai army is the world champion of coups.Move Forward Party leader and Thai PM candidate Pita Limjaroenrat during the press conference of coalition parties in Bangkok.
Election body probes Thai PM hopeful
On Monday, Thailand's electoral commission announced it is investigating whether PM frontrunner Pita Limjaroenrat was qualified to run in last month's general election.
Huh? Shouldn't that have been settled before the vote? Not in Thailand, where the army-backed political establishment has perfected the art of gaming the system to stay in power when it loses at the ballot box.
Pita is accused of being knowingly unfit to run for MP because he owned shares in a media firm, which is verboten under Thai election rules. But the leader of the progressive Move Forward Party argues that those shares were not under his name and the media firm has been inactive since 2007.
Still, no matter how ludicrous the charge might sound, keep in mind this is Thailand, where in 2008 a prime minister was (legally) removed for ... hosting a cooking show.
If Pita gets disqualified, political turmoil is all but assured in the Land of Smiles. In early 2020, the election fraud conviction of the head of Future Forward — basically the MFP before it rebranded — triggered a youth-led protest movement that forever changed Thai politics by calling to reform the once-untouchable monarchy.Move Forward Party leader and PM candidate Pita Limjaroenrat celebrate the party's election results in Bangkok, Thailand.
A guide to Thailand’s messy post-election politics
On Sunday, Thai voters shocked the ruling pro-military establishment by delivering a landslide victory for the democratic opposition. Okay, so that means the generals are out, right?
Nope.
For one thing, the men in uniform pre-rigged the election. After taking over in a 2014 coup, they rewrote the constitution to appoint the entire 250-member Senate, which picks the prime minister along with 500 MPs elected by popular vote. To form a government without the army’s consent, you need a majority of at least 376 seats, equivalent to three-quarters of the lower chamber.
Thailand’s military, with a long and rather successful history of intervening in politics, did this to ensure they would still call the shots no matter how their coalition performed at the ballot box. (Even before tweaking the charter, the country’s fragmented parliament and weak party system made it difficult for any party to win an outright majority.)
Regardless, the frontrunner for PM is 42-year-old Pita Limjaroenrat, a telegenic, English-speaking businessman whose progressive Move Forward Party got the most votes and seats. Against all odds, MFP bested the Pheu Thai (For Thais) Party backed by exiled former PM Thaksin Shinawatra, whose parties had won every single Thai election since he swept to power in 2001.
MFP and Pheu Thai — now captained by Thaksin’s millennial daughter, Paetongtarn — quickly announced a six-party coalition to form a government. But together they only have 309 seats, 67 shy of the minimum threshold to override the army’s likely Senate veto.
To get that supermajority, the opposition might reach out to an unlikely kingmaker: the Bhumjaithai or “Thai Pride Party,” which came in third with 71 MPs. Bhumjaithai’s claim to fame is having led the charge for Thailand to legalize recreational cannabis, which the government actually did last year despite the country being famous for its very tough anti-drug laws.
Unfortunately, being pro-weed puts Bhumjaithai at odds with Pheu Thai, whose socially conservative rural base hates stoners and supported Thaksin’s bloody war on drugs in the early 2000s. Similarly, Bhumjaithai is also an establishment royalist party that won’t allow MFP to reform Thailand’s draconian lèse-majesté laws, popularly known as “112” for the article in the criminal code that punishes offenses to the king with up to 15 years behind bars.
What’s more, even if these three parties cut a deal, a very big if, the generals won’t leave without putting up a (political) fight.
The Thai army has ways to hold onto power despite losing big in the election. Its political allies could seek to dissolve MFP on bogus election law violation charges, as they did with its predecessor, Future Forward. (That disqualification triggered the 2020-2021 youth-led protests that rocked Thailand and turned out many first-time voters to back MFP.)
And if that doesn’t pan out, the generals might try to use the judiciary to remove the premier on even more ludicrous grounds. After all, the constitutional court once fried a sitting PM for … hosting a cooking show.
Still, if the generals pull a fast one, there could be major trouble ahead. How would you feel if you voted for change, yet got more of the same?
If anything is certain in Thai politics, it’s that violent street protests are sooner or later followed by a military coup, with the king’s blessing of course. And that’ll plunge the Land of Smiles deeper into political Groundhog Day.