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South Sudan's Vice President Riek Machar, pictured here addressing the press in 2020.
South Sudan’s vice president arrested, country on brink of civil war
Alarm bells are ringing ever more loudly in South Sudan, as Vice President Riek Machar — chief rival to Prime Minister Salva Kiir — was arrested late Wednesday in an operation involving 20 armored vehicles at his compound in Juba. He was placed under house arrest, a move that is fueling fears that the country will soon descend into civil war.
“We strongly condemn the unconstitutional actions taken today by the Minister of Defense and the Chief of National Security,” Machar’s SPLM-IO party said. The ex-rebel group added that the arrest effectively annulled the 2018 power-sharing deal that brought peace to the nascent nation — it withdrew from the security aspects of the agreement last week.
The public is reportedly in a state of panic, with violent clashes this week displacing some 50,000 people from their homes. Kiir pledged on Wednesday not to return the Upper Nile state to war, while SPLM-IO deputy leader Oyet Nathaniel Pierino urged the public to remain calm.
Wishful thinking: But calls for calm may reflect more hope than expectation. Kate Johnston, an associate fellow at the Center for a New American Security and a regional expert, called the arrest “a pretty fundamental undermining of the peace agreement” and warned of the dangers of civil war for the sub-Saharan state.
“Seventy-five percent of the population is already on food aid,” said Johnston. “A civil war would be catastrophic for the population.”
South Sudan's President Salva Kiir, left, and Riek Machar, shake hands after a meeting in which they reached a deal to form a long-delayed unity government in Juba, South Sudan back in December 2019. How times have changed.
South Sudan on brink of civil war as senior officials’ arrests inflame ethnic tensions
Both Machar and Chol are members of the Nuer ethnic group, the country’s second-largest demographic after the majority Dinka. The crackdown by President Salva Kiir – an ethnic Dinka whose long-standing rivalry with Machar exploded into conflict in the past – came one day after the White Army, a loosely organized militia made up of members of the vice president’s Nuer minority, seized control over Nasir, a major town in South Sudan’s northeasternmost Upper Nile State, from the country’s military. Machar supported the White Army during the war.
As part of the 2018 peace deal that ended the civil war, Kiir and Machar agreed to unify disparate ethnic militias into one national army in 2022. But negotiations stalled last year.
In early February, Kiir’s government unilaterally sacked Machar’s allies, including the health minister, without consulting the vice president as required under the peace pact. Days later, national troops loyal to Kiir attacked civilians in a crowded market in Nasir during a meeting with the local United Nations mission.
In response to what was just the latest example of UN-documented abuses of civilians by the military, armed youths killed at least four soldiers. A week later, the military launched airstrikes on positions held by militants loyal to Machar.
Dashed hopes? The latest escalation comes just two months after South Sudan’s oil production began again, bringing much-needed revenues to one of the world’s poorest countries.