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In his latest “ask ian,” Ian Bremmer says this is not a momentous NATO summit, and that may be the best thing about it.

Europe is spending significantly more on defense, Ukraine is doing more successfully on the battlefield, and President Trump has less leverage than he did when he could argue allies were not spending enough.

Ian says NATO is stronger than before the war. It is larger, Europe is spending more, and Ukraine is learning how to fight with advanced weapons, artificial intelligence, and drones in ways that benefit the alliance.

At the same time, the US is seen as less reliable under Trump, and that is changing Europe’s defense choices. “Be careful what you wish for,” Ian says, noting that more spending driven by mistrust of America will increasingly mean more production, technology sharing, and capital investment inside Europe.

Ian’s takeaway: less uncertainty, less volatility, and a NATO summit closer to normal than many expected.