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What We’re Watching: Trump threatens Nigeria, Jihadis surround Mali’s capital, Latin Americans back US-led regime change in Venezuela
Farmers proceed to their fields for cultivation under Nigerian Army escort while departing Dikwa town in Borno State, Nigeria, on August 27, 2025. Despite the threat of insurgent attacks, farmers in Borno are gradually returning to their farmlands under military escort, often spending limited time on cultivation.
Trump threatens hit on Nigeria over plight of Christians
US President Donald Trump on Saturday threatened military action against Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, over the government’s alleged failure to protect Christian communities, who make up nearly half of the country’s 231 million people. Nigerian President Bola Tinubu rejected the claims, which echo a growing concern about anti-Christian violence among the American right, though his adviser said he’d “welcome US assistance” in combating jihadist insurgencies such as ISWAP, which have targeted Christian communities. In addition, there has been a surge in sectarian violence in Nigeria this year, a result of intensifying competition for land and resources between farmers, who are typically Christian, and herders, who are mostly Muslim.
Mali on verge of succumbing to jihadis
Meanwhile, in nearby Mali, jihadis have surrounded and blockaded the capital of Bamako, starving the city’s four million residents of fuel. The militants are now on the cusp of taking power from the Russian-backed military junta there. This is the latest twist in a 13-year long conflict that has featured three military coups, a French invasion, a Russian intervention, a French withdrawal, and a notorious jihadi leader nicknamed “One-Eyed Nelson.” The rise of an ultraconservative jihadist caliphate would subject Mali’s people – especially its women – to immense hardship, while also threatening to create a fresh refugee crisis that could ripple towards Europe. It would also mark a fresh setback for Russia, and could boost jihadist groups that have sprouted in neighboring Burkina Faso and Niger.
Split-screen on regime change in Venezuela
Nearly half of Americans oppose US-led regime change in Venezuela, and just 18% support it, a YouGov poll says. But people in the region see things differently, according to a multi-country Bloomberg study that shows 53% of respondents want Tío Sam to knock out Venezuelan strongman Nicolás Maduro. Mexico is the only country where opposition surpasses support for the idea. Within Venezuela? A plurality said they “don’t know.” The US has recently been striking boats it says belong to drug traffickers tied to the Venezuelan regime. But with more US warships in the region than at any time since the 1989-1990 invasion of Panamá, many are wondering if Maduro’s regime itself is the eventual target. (For more on what that could look like, see here.)
US President Donald Trump (sixth from left) and Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi (seventh from left) arrive at the nuclear-powered aircraft carrier USS George Washington (CVN-73) in Yokosuka City, Kanagawa Prefecture, Japan, on October 28, 2025.
Last Thursday, US President Donald Trump announced that Washington will restart nuclear-weapons testing, raising fears that it could end a 33-year moratorium on nuclear-warhead testing.
“Because of other countries (sic) testing programs,” Trump said, “I have instructed the Department of War to start testing our Nuclear Weapons on an equal basis. That process will begin immediately.”
What is nuclear testing? Nuclear powers – including the US, Russia, and others – test missiles and other delivery systems regularly. Russia has recently been developing new cruise missiles and underwater drones that are nuclear capable. However, no nation other than North Korea has been confirmed to test a nuclear warhead in over three decades. In an interview aired Sunday on CBS, Trump claimed, “Russia’s testing, and China’s testing, but they don’t talk about it.” Both countries deny the allegation. International agreements from the 1960s ban nuclear testing.
What tests will the US actually conduct? On Sunday, Energy Secretary Chris Wright told Fox News, “I think the tests we’re talking about right now are systems tests... These are not nuclear explosions. These are what we call noncritical explosions.”
Why announce testing now? Trump made the announcement just prior to meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping in South Korea last Thursday. In the past five years, Beijing has doubled its nuclear arsenal to 600 weapons, and the Pentagon estimates that China will have more than 1,000 by 2030. According to the Federation of American Scientists, the US and Russia are still the top two nuclear powers with 5177 and 5459 respectively.
Vice President JD Vance said all three countries have a large nuclear arsenal and that “sometimes you’ve got to test it to make sure it’s functioning and working properly.”
The move comes amidst a disintegrating arms control regime. In the 1970s and 80s the US and the USSR sought to limit the growth of their nuclear arsenals through the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) I and II and the INF treaty, which reduced total warhead count and eliminated the development of ground-launched nuclear missiles with ranges of 500 to 5,500 kilometers. In the 1990s and 2000s, the US and Russia concluded three Strategic Arms Reduction Treaties (START) Treaties, ultimately capping the number of deployed strategic warheads at 1,550 each.
But in recent years arms control has been unravelling. In 2019, the US withdrew from a treaty that outlawed intermediate range nuclear missiles, because it said Russia had been violating the pact. Four years later, Moscow suspended its participation in START II and resumed testing nuclear weapons delivery systems.
What risks lie ahead? Trump wants to conduct as many tests as Russia and China “within five years,” which could spur both nations to increase their testing to remain competitive. Daryl Kimball, director of the Arms Control Association, warned that Trump's announcement could “trigger a chain reaction of nuclear testing by U.S. adversaries, and blow apart the nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.”
Ending the “testing taboo” could also encourage smaller nuclear nations like North Korea, Pakistan and India, and aspiring nuclear powers like Iran, to engage in testing as well.
And even if testing is confined to new delivery systems alone, the race to develop new, stealthier and more destructive nuclear missiles, rockets, and drones is likely to accelerate.
All of this has scientists considering advancing the hands of the so-called “doomsday clock.” Currently, they sit at 89 seconds to midnight – the closest they have ever been.
Listen: US President Donald Trump has been piling the pressure on Russia and Venezuela in recent weeks. He placed sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil firms and bolstered the country’s military presence around Venezuela – while continuing to bomb ships coming off Venezuela’s shores. But what exactly are Trump’s goals? And can he achieve them? And how are Russia and Venezuela, two of the largest oil producers in the world, responding?
GZERO reporters Zac Weisz and Riley Callanan discuss.
In this Quick Take, Ian Bremmer weighs in on the Trump-Xi meeting in South Korea calling it “a truce, not a breakthrough.”
He explains, “It stabilizes the relationship… it brings us closer back to where we were before.” Key agreements include a one-year suspension of recent Chinese restrictions on rare earths, lowered tariffs, and renewed US soybean purchases.
But Ian notes that “there is still very much a movement longer term towards decoupling,” especially around tech.
What We’re Watching: Canada’s government on the brink again, Far-right setback in the Netherlands, Iran’s capital city on the move?
Canada's Prime Minister Mark Carney speaks during Question Period in the House of Commons on Parliament Hill in Ottawa, Ontario, Canada, October 22, 2025.
Canada’s government could collapse next week
Prime Minister Mark Carney’s credibility took a serious hit after Ontario’s anti-tariff ad soured relations with US President Donald Trump and shut down trade talks. Elected in April on a promise to deliver a deal with Washington, Carney now faces a confidence vote on his first budget next Tuesday: if his minority government can’t get the votes to pass it, Canadians could be going to the polls again – that would make twice in one year.
Far right takes a hit in Dutch election
The center left D66 party and the far-right Freedom Party of anti-Islam firebrand Geert Wilders tied atop the Dutch elections, each winning 26 seats. The result was a triumph for D66, which picked up 17 seats. PVV, meanwhile, dropped 11. Wilders won the 2023 election, but two years of chaotic, unstable government followed. Because D66 edged out PVV in the vote tally, it has first crack at forming a government. Its success or failure will help answer a key question: does the election result show the limits of the far-right’s appeal, or is it a temporary setback in Wilders’ otherwise steady rise?
Iran’s president wants to move the capital
Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian wants to move the capital from bustling Tehran to a remote, sparsely populated province along the Gulf of Oman. Why? He says chronic water shortages can’t be solved and are hemming in the city’s growth. Experts say Iran lacks the money and infrastructure to make such a move right now, and that only a small fraction of people would relocate. Iran is currently suffering hyperinflation and a severe recession as the country's economy feels the pain of UN “snapback sanctions” that were implemented last month.US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping talk as they leave after a bilateral meeting at Gimhae International Airport, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit, in Busan, South Korea, on October 30, 2025.
After months of escalating tensions, US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping reached a trade truce at their meeting in South Korea on Thursday.
What was agreed? The two sides each delayed imposing further tariffs, with Trump reducing the overall US tariff rate on China to 45%. China agreed to drop its rare earth export ban, while the US may allow China to purchase advanced semiconductors again. That’s not all: the two countries suspended port fees, China pledged to started buying American soybeans again, good news for American soy farmers who have lost market share to Brazil.
What didn’t the meeting resolve? There was no update on terms for the sale of TikTok to American buyers, and the two sides also didn’t discuss Chinese access to the most powerful US-made microchips. More broadly, Trump and Xi didn’t appear to come to any resolution on Washington’s longer-term issues, such as the US trade deficit with China, concerns about Chinese theft of US intellectual property, or the defense of Taiwan – which the US still supports against Beijing’s claims of sovereignty.
Nuclear tensions start to simmer. The US commander-in-chief announced on Thursday that he had ordered the Pentagon to start testing nuclear weapons “on an equal basis” with Russia and China. The US hasn’t tested a nuke since 1992, and is party to a 1996 treaty with Moscow and Beijing that bars such actions. Testing is unlikely to start soon, in part because of safety concerns but also because most National Nuclear Security Administration are furloughed right now due to the government shutdown.
What about Ukraine? Trump said that Ukraine “came up very strongly” during the meeting with Xi, but did not elaborate, and gave no indication that the two men had discussed the impact of recent US sanctions on Russia’s two largest oil producers. Chinese refineries – the largest buyers of Russian crude – have reportedly begun to explore alternative sources (read more here).
Scoring the showdown: who won?? “Nobody has the upper hand,” said Eurasia Group’s Practice Head for China David Meale. “What both sides have instead is an understanding that each is capable of triggering the other’s intolerable pain points – and therefore a path must be struck between them.”
But, Meale added, “China must feel more satisfied than the US about where it is compared to the beginning of 2025,” in part because Beijing has stood up to Trump’s “Liberation Day” tariffs and identified a “potent leverage tool through rare earths export controls.”
Overall assessment of the meeting? Trump couldn’t have been more pleased, saying, “On a scale of 1 to 10, the meeting with Xi was 12.”
Meale was a little more equivocal.
“I would put it at a seven out of 10.”
The talks come after weeks of trade escalation The US expanded export controls, which Beijing saw as a major provocation, and China responded with new rules on licensing agreements for critical minerals, a situation Ian describes as “a bit of miscommunication.”
Ian explains that the confusion was fueled by the fact that “you don’t have trusted regular engagement like you did at the end of the Biden administration,” making it easier for actions and tweets to be misinterpreted.
Still, Ian emphasizes that both sides “want to get to yes.” With the US still developing domestic rare earth production and China facing slowing growth, neither economy can afford further shocks.